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Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)
:RRGB
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Red Robin Gourmet
(NASDAQ:RRGB)41Neutral
Positive Factors
Customer Engagement
As Red Robin executes its North Star plan, restaurant health continues to improve, and the brand is regaining customer engagement.
Guest Traffic
The company has demonstrated progress with a 6% increase in guest traffic from Q1:24 to Q4:24.
Negative Factors
Revenue Guidance
Management issued 2025 revenue guidance that was below our expectations for revenue due to upcoming restaurant closures.
Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$84.37M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)469.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth-4.19%
EPS Growth-266.52%
CountryUS
Employees22,516
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength53
IndustryRestaurants & Bars
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.89
Shares Outstanding17,467,493
10 Day Avg. Volume806,200
30 Day Avg. Volume469,754
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.07
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)4.10
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.25Price Target Upside100.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
Red Robin Gourmet Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionRed Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) is a casual dining restaurant chain known for its gourmet burgers and family-friendly atmosphere. Founded in 1969 and headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado, Red Robin operates a network of company-owned and franchised locations across the United States and Canada. The company's menu features a wide variety of burgers, sandwiches, salads, and beverages, appealing to a diverse customer base seeking quality dining experiences.
How the Company Makes MoneyRed Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. primarily generates revenue through the operation of its company-owned restaurants and by collecting royalties from its franchised locations. The majority of the company's income comes from the sale of food and beverages at its restaurants, where it offers a diverse menu that includes gourmet burgers, appetizers, entrees, and drinks. Additionally, Red Robin benefits from its franchising model, earning a percentage of sales from its franchised restaurants in the form of royalties and related fees. The company also leverages marketing partnerships and promotional activities to drive customer traffic and enhance brand visibility, which contributes to overall earnings.
Red Robin Gourmet Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Red Robin Gourmet faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues, negative equity, and cash flow issues. The company needs to address profitability and solvency to improve its financial health, with particular attention to stabilizing operations and managing debt.Income Statement
Red Robin Gourmet has faced declining revenues, with a negative revenue growth rate of -4.17% from 2023 to 2024. The company also experienced negative net and EBIT margins, indicating profitability challenges. Despite a positive EBITDA margin in 2023, the overall financial health in terms of profitability is weak.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet is concerning, with negative stockholders' equity in 2023, indicating insolvency risks. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, and the equity ratio is effectively zero, further highlighting financial instability.20
Very Negative
Cash Flow
While Red Robin's free cash flow improved slightly from -$50.6 million in 2023 to -$18.9 million in 2024, it remains negative, suggesting ongoing cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable, but there is a slight improvement in operational cash flows.40
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 1.25B | 1.30B | 1.27B | 1.16B | 868.72M | Gross Profit |
| 852.81M | 192.79M | 420.68M | 394.80M | 237.88M | EBIT |
| -53.08M | 4.54M | -56.41M | -36.70M | -275.15M | EBITDA |
| 5.38M | 71.83M | 18.75M | 47.46M | -185.83M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -77.54M | -21.23M | -77.80M | -50.00M | -276.07M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 30.65M | 23.63M | 48.83M | 22.75M | 16.12M | Total Assets |
| 641.31M | 741.93M | 832.14M | 929.00M | 974.74M | Total Debt |
| 578.38M | 618.54M | 647.08M | 660.93M | 691.15M | Net Debt |
| 547.73M | 587.16M | 598.25M | 638.18M | 675.04M | Total Liabilities |
| 725.58M | 762.38M | 826.77M | 852.02M | 854.03M | Stockholders Equity |
| -84.27M | -20.44M | 5.38M | 76.97M | 120.71M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -18.99M | -50.60M | -2.63M | 5.03M | -1.90M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 7.05M | -1.16M | 35.53M | 47.29M | 20.23M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -1.75M | 8.23M | -29.57M | -42.24M | -21.39M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 2.54M | -33.71M | 29.53M | 1.56M | -11.70M |
Red Robin Gourmet Technical Analysis
Negative
4.62
Price Trends
5.46
Negative
5.50
Negative
5.59
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.19
Positive
41.28
Neutral
16.92
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RRGB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.04, below the 50-day MA of 5.46, and below the 200-day MA of 5.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RRGB.
Red Robin Gourmet Risk Analysis
Red Robin Gourmet disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Red Robin Gourmet reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Red Robin Gourmet Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.58B | 15.60 | 41.18% | 2.16% | 4.13% | 56.76% | |
73 Outperform | $828.76M | 52.95 | 4.54% | ― | 1.81% | -15.53% | |
73 Outperform | $6.67B | 24.22 | 2390.91% | ― | 13.67% | 69.41% | |
63 Neutral | $357.83M | 3.90 | -42.81% | 8.40% | -2.27% | 24.95% | |
60 Neutral | $13.01B | 10.45 | 0.79% | 3.53% | 1.60% | -22.47% | |
41 Neutral | $84.37M | ― | 92.02% | ― | -4.19% | -266.52% | |
36 Underperform | $734.65M | ― | -13.92% | 11.10% | -7.42% | -153.35% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet
4.62
-2.56
-35.65%
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants
35.83
-1.14
-3.08%
EAT
Brinker International
139.47
90.42
184.34%
DIN
Dine Brands Global
25.50
-22.00
-46.32%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
48.22
12.24
34.02%
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands
8.56
-19.94
-69.96%
Red Robin Gourmet Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: 2.21% | Next Earnings Date: May 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Red Robin demonstrated significant improvements in traffic trends, guest satisfaction, and loyalty program growth. However, challenges such as declining total revenues, planned restaurant closures, and increased discount levels indicated a mixed performance. Despite these challenges, the positive aspects, particularly in operational improvements and customer engagement, suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook.Highlights
Improvement in Traffic Trends
Red Robin reported a 600 basis point improvement in traffic trends from Q1 to Q4 of 2024, indicating successful initiatives to drive restaurant traffic.
Increase in Guest Satisfaction Scores
Dine-in guest satisfaction scores increased by approximately 8 percentage points in 2024 compared to 2023, beating the casual dining average.
Growth in Loyalty Program Membership
The revamped Red Robin Royalty program spurred membership growth of approximately 1.5 million members in 2024, ending the year with approximately 14.9 million members.
Comparable Restaurant Revenue Growth
The company delivered a 3.4% increase in comparable restaurant revenue in Q4 2024, excluding the impact of deferred loyalty revenue.
Increase in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA increased by 19% to $12.7 million during Q4 2024, showing successful management of operational costs.
Successful Managing Partner Compensation Program
The Managing Partner Compensation Program has been successfully launched, aligning operators around a unified goal of driving growth in traffic and profit dollars.
Lowlights
Decline in Total Revenues
Total revenues were $285.2 million in Q4 2024 compared to $309 million in Q4 2023, primarily due to a reduction in operating weeks from 13 to 12.
Restaurant Closures
Red Robin plans to close 10 to 15 restaurants in 2025, part of a strategy to address approximately 70 underperforming locations that generated a restaurant-level operating loss in 2024.
Increased Discount Levels
Discount levels increased by approximately 120 basis points compared to the previous year, impacting restaurant-level operating profit.
Cash Burn from Underperforming Restaurants
The underperforming restaurants caused a cash burn of approximately $9.5 million in 2024, impacting overall profitability.
Company Guidance
During the Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call, the company highlighted several metrics reflecting its progress and future guidance. They reported a 600 basis point improvement in traffic trends from the first to the fourth quarter of 2024, and an 8 percentage point increase in dine-in guest satisfaction scores compared to 2023. The revamped Red Robin Royalty program contributed to membership growth, ending the year with approximately 14.9 million members. For Q4, comparable restaurant revenue increased by 3.4%, with adjusted EBITDA rising 19% to $12.7 million. Looking forward, Red Robin aims for 2025 total revenue between $1.225 billion and $1.25 billion, with restaurant-level operating profit expected to improve by 120 to 220 basis points, and adjusted EBITDA projected at $60 to $65 million. They also plan to close 10 to 15 underperforming restaurants during 2025.Red Robin Gourmet Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Red Robin Announces CMO Kevin Mayer’s Departure
Neutral
Feb 11, 2025
On February 11, 2025, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. announced the departure of its Chief Marketing Officer, Kevin Mayer, effective immediately. The company has not yet established a new compensatory arrangement or finalized a severance agreement with Mr. Mayer, with further details to be disclosed in an amendment to the Form 8-K.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.