BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) AI Stock Analysis

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BJ's Restaurants

(NASDAQ:BJRI)

65Neutral

BJ's Restaurants has demonstrated strong financial performance with solid revenue growth and effective cost management. However, challenges in profitability and a high P/E ratio indicate potential overvaluation. The technical indicators suggest a lack of strong momentum, while the positive earnings call highlights growth and strategic initiatives. These factors result in a moderate overall stock score.

Positive Factors

Marketing Success

Targeted marketing efforts drove a solid traffic response in key markets, with an encouraging lift in TX and FL.

Strategic Efforts

Management's recent strategic efforts have shown material margin progress and generated operating results that exceeded consensus on all metrics.

Negative Factors

Margin and EBITDA Challenges

Margin downside and EBITDA miss were driven by elevated discounting, promotional actions, and incremental labor and marketing investment.

Weather Impact

Weather-related pressure has muted February results, and management expects full 1Q SSS results to be adversely impacted.

BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$725.62M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)344.85K

Price to Earnings (P/E)46.8

Beta (1Y)1.18

Revenue Growth1.81%

EPS Growth-15.53%

CountryUS

Employees21,230

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength58

IndustryRestaurants

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.47

Shares Outstanding22,718,160

10 Day Avg. Volume364,951

30 Day Avg. Volume344,852

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.57

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)6.10

P/FCF Ratio11.20

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$39.40

Price Target Upside16.91% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering7

BJ's Restaurants Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) is an American restaurant chain known for its diverse menu that includes deep-dish pizza, craft beers, and a variety of American-style meals. The company operates in the casual dining sector and is recognized for its unique dining experience, which combines high-quality food with a lively atmosphere. BJ's Restaurants are primarily located in the United States, serving a broad demographic of diners seeking a casual yet engaging dining experience.

How the Company Makes MoneyBJ's Restaurants, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages at its restaurant locations. The company's revenue streams are predominantly derived from dine-in services, takeout, and delivery options. Additionally, BJ's benefits from its in-house brewery operations, producing and selling a selection of craft beers under the BJ's Brewhouse brand. While the core of its earnings comes from direct restaurant sales, BJ's occasionally engages in strategic partnerships and promotional activities aimed at enhancing brand visibility and attracting more customers. The company also leverages its loyalty programs and marketing initiatives to drive repeat visits and increase average customer spend.

BJ's Restaurants Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BJ's Restaurants demonstrates solid revenue growth and effective cost management, with a strong gross profit margin. While profitability remains a challenge, the company has shown improvement in cash flow generation. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged but could benefit from enhanced profitability and shareholder returns. Overall, BJ's Restaurants is in a stable financial position with opportunities for further growth and efficiency gains.

Income Statement

Positive

BJ's Restaurants has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a 5.9% increase from 2023 to 2024. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 74.2%, indicating strong cost management. However, the net profit margin of 1.2% suggests tight profitability, reflecting industry challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest at 1.0% and 5.6%, respectively, pointing to potential improvements in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.35, indicating a moderate level of leverage. The equity ratio stands at 35.5%, suggesting a stable capital structure. Return on equity is modest at 4.5%, highlighting the need for improved profitability to enhance shareholder returns. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a cautiously leveraged position with room for optimization.

Cash Flow

Positive

The company shows a positive free cash flow growth rate of 254.8% from 2023 to 2024, indicating improved cash generation capacity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 6.1 suggests strong cash earnings relative to reported profits. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.5 further supports healthy cash flow management, though improvements can still be made in capital expenditure efficiency.

Dec 2024	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.36B	1.33B	1.28B	1.09B	778.51M
	Gross Profit
1.01B	177.79M	144.76M	129.63M	56.42M
	EBIT
14.08M	13.76M	780.00K	-10.23M	-68.02M
	EBITDA
86.49M	86.01M	67.79M	60.19M	5.11M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
16.69M	19.66M	4.08M	-3.61M	-57.88M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
26.10M	29.07M	24.87M	38.53M	54.01M
	Total Assets
1.04B	1.06B	1.05B	1.04B	1.06B
	Total Debt
500.61M	519.50M	532.71M	525.26M	610.48M
	Net Debt
474.51M	490.43M	507.84M	486.73M	556.47M
	Total Liabilities
671.05M	692.69M	700.41M	701.39M	765.64M
	Stockholders Equity
370.02M	365.76M	345.51M	333.77M	293.79M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
24.57M	6.92M	-27.48M	22.10M	-2.78M
	Operating Cash Flow
101.47M	105.84M	51.12M	64.28M	40.54M
	Investing Cash Flow
-76.89M	-98.91M	-71.91M	-42.17M	-35.72M
	Financing Cash Flow
-27.55M	-2.73M	7.13M	-35.25M	24.45M

BJ's Restaurants Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price33.70

Price Trends

50DMA

34.42

Negative

100DMA

35.17

Negative

200DMA

34.18

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.48

Negative

RSI

52.41

Neutral

STOCH

87.03

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BJRI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.06, below the 50-day MA of 34.42, and below the 200-day MA of 34.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BJRI.

BJ's Restaurants Risk Analysis

BJ's Restaurants disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BJ's Restaurants reported the most risks in the “Ability to Sell” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

BJ's Restaurants Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PTLO	74 Outperform	$808.69M	23.63	8.16%	―	4.51%	43.99%
CAKE	71 Outperform	$2.28B	14.39	41.18%	2.14%	4.13%	56.76%
BJRI	65 Neutral	$725.62M	46.85	4.54%	―	1.81%	-15.53%
CBRL	62 Neutral	$991.62M	27.80	7.80%	4.60%	2.26%	-56.99%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$6.55B	11.40	3.24%	4.25%	2.38%	-21.28%
BH	52 Neutral	$675.05M	14.87	-0.64%	―	-0.88%	-106.84%
JACK	50 Neutral	$479.76M	―	4.15%	6.92%	-6.02%	-136.86%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BJRI

BJ's Restaurants

33.70

0.51

1.54%

Biglari Holdings

223.52

22.16

11.01%

CBRL

Cracker Barrel

43.98

-15.42

-25.96%

JACK

Jack In The Box

25.42

-30.74

-54.74%

CAKE

Cheesecake Factory

51.30

17.30

50.88%

PTLO

Portillo's

10.82

-1.18

-9.83%

BJ's Restaurants Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 20, 2025 | % Change Since: -5.71% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment with strong financial performance in Q4 2024, marked by record profitability and successful marketing initiatives. However, there are concerns about weather impacts and consumer spending, as well as challenges with food cost inflation and a net loss in the quarter due to extraordinary items.

Highlights

Strong Comparable Sales Growth

Comparable same-restaurant sales increased by 5.5% in Q4 2024, driven primarily by guest traffic, marking the best comp performance since 2018, excluding COVID recovery quarters.

Record Q4 Restaurant Profitability

Restaurant level operating profit reached $52.9 million in Q4, a 14% increase from last year, setting a record for Q4 restaurant profitability.

Adjusted EBITDA Growth

Adjusted EBITDA was $33.1 million in Q4, a 21% increase from the prior year, with a 120 basis points improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin.

Successful Marketing Initiatives

The Pizookie Meal Deal and holiday large party offerings resonated with guests, driving traffic and sales, especially in media markets.

Positive Brand Positioning and Future Growth Plans

Notable progress on brand positioning and growth initiatives, with plans to remodel up to 30 locations in 2025 and open a new restaurant.

Lowlights

Weather and Consumer Spending Concerns

Sales trends softened due to weather impacts in certain markets and general conservatism in consumer spending post-holidays, affecting Q1 expectations.

Food Cost Inflation

Food cost inflation was approximately 3.5% year-over-year, leading to a 40 basis points increase in cost of sales, which outpaced menu pricing.

Net Loss in Q4

Reported a net loss of $5.3 million and diluted net loss per share of $0.23 on a GAAP basis for Q4, including charges for asset disposals and leadership transition costs.

Company Guidance

In the BJ's Restaurants Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Release Conference Call, the company reported robust financial performance and provided guidance for 2025. Comparable same-restaurant sales increased by 5.5%, driven primarily by guest traffic across all dayparts and channels. The restaurant-level margins improved to 15.4%, with operating profit reaching $52.9 million, a 14% increase from the previous year, marking a record for Q4 profitability. Adjusted EBITDA was $33.1 million, up 21% from the prior year, with a margin improvement of 120 basis points to 9.6%. For 2025, BJ's Restaurants anticipates comparable sales growth of 2% to 3%, restaurant-level operating profit between $205 million and $215 million, and adjusted EBITDA ranging from $127 million to $137 million. The company plans capital expenditures of $65 million to $75 million, including the opening of one new restaurant and remodeling up to 30 existing locations. Additionally, they expect to repurchase $40 million to $50 million of shares, reflecting confidence in their growth trajectory.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.