Intrepid Potash (IPI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $342.03M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 199.58K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: -8.74%
• EPS Growth: -492.08%
• Country: US
• Employees: 468
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): -16.49
• Shares Outstanding: 13,226,281
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 240,625
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 199,584
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.78
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 12.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $20.00
• Price Target Upside: -22.66% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

Intrepid Potash's overall stock score reflects a balance of financial challenges and positive technical momentum. The company's profitability issues and valuation concerns are significant, but recent production improvements and governance enhancements provide optimism. The technical indicators suggest strong market momentum, though caution is advised due to near-overbought conditions.

Positive Factors

Permitting Process

The AMAX Cavern in the HB solution mine system is close to completing the permitting process, with the expectation that the test well will be drilled soon.

Production

There is an improvement in potash production, reaching the highest level since the first quarter of 2020.

Segment Performance

The Potash and Trio segments' gross profit were ahead by $300k and $1.1M respectively.

Negative Factors

Earnings Forecast

1Q25 EPS is initiated at -$0.12 versus $0.11 consensus.

Financial Performance

Intrepid's 4Q24 gross profit of $7.3M was below consensus of $7.8M and MSe of $8.3M.

Oilfield Solutions

Oilfield Solutions was below expectations by $2.4M, contributing to a gross profit shortfall.

Intrepid Potash Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Intrepid Potash, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the extraction and production of the potash in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Potash, Trio, and Oilfield Solutions. The Potash segment offers muriate of potash or potassium chloride for use as a fertilizer input in the agricultural market; as a component in drilling and fracturing fluids for oil and gas wells, as well as an input to other industrial processes in the industrial market; and as a nutrient supplement in the animal feed market. The Trio segment provides Trio, a specialty fertilizer that delivers potassium, sulfate, and magnesium in a single particle. The Oilfield Solutions segment sells water for use in the oil and gas services industry; and offers potassium chloride real-time mixing services on location for hydraulic fracturing operations and trucking services. The company also offers salt for use in animal feeds, industrial applications, pool salts, and treatment of roads and walkways for ice melting or to manage road conditions; magnesium chloride for use in the deicing and dedusting of roads; brines for well development and completion activities in the oil and gas industry; and metal recovery salt, a combination of potash and salt to enhance the recovery of aluminum in the aluminum recycling processing facilities. Intrepid Potash, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Intrepid Potash makes money through the extraction, production, and sale of potash and other minerals, which are essential components for fertilizers used in agriculture. The company's revenue model is driven by the demand for potash in the agricultural sector, where it is used to improve crop yields by providing essential nutrients. Additionally, Intrepid Potash generates revenue from the sale of salt and magnesium chloride, which are used in de-icing, dust control, and other industrial processes. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and contracts with agricultural producers and distributors, contributing to its earnings. Fluctuations in agricultural demand, commodity prices, and operational efficiencies are significant factors influencing the company's revenue.

Intrepid Potash Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Intrepid Potash is facing significant financial challenges, particularly in terms of profitability and revenue growth. Despite a strong equity base and positive cash flow generation, the income statement reveals declining revenues and margins. Negative return on equity and net losses are concerning, signaling a need for strategic improvements.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a challenging period for Intrepid Potash, with a notable decline in revenue from $279 million in the previous year to $254.7 million TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Gross profit margin decreased to approximately 10.93%, and net profit margin turned negative at -83.58%, indicating significant profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational difficulties. Overall, the income statement highlights a concerning downward trajectory in financial performance.

Balance Sheet

Intrepid Potash's balance sheet shows a relatively strong equity position with stockholders' equity accounting for 79.77% of total assets, demonstrating a solid equity base. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.55%, indicating conservative leverage. However, return on equity is negative due to substantial net losses, which is a significant concern. Despite the healthy equity ratio, the negative ROE reflects poor financial performance impacting shareholder value.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a positive operating cash flow of $72.5 million TTM, demonstrating the company's ability to generate cash from operations. Free cash flow also improved to $39.9 million, indicating better cash management compared to the previous period's negative free cash flow. However, free cash flow to net income ratio is affected by substantial net losses, highlighting profitability issues. While cash flow generation is a positive, the underlying profitability concerns remain.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
254.69M	279.08M	337.57M	270.33M	196.95M
	Gross Profit
29.08M	36.85M	141.41M	55.76M	10.53M
	EBIT
-5.21M	-43.97M	95.44M	32.27M	-17.04M
	EBITDA
-5.21M	-2.52M	133.60M	80.25M	14.99M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-212.84M	-35.67M	72.22M	249.83M	-27.15M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
42.30M	7.04M	24.47M	36.45M	19.52M
	Total Assets
594.52M	768.47M	794.20M	766.89M	550.19M
	Total Debt
2.62M	8.54M	2.21M	1.88M	56.88M
	Net Debt
-38.69M	4.44M	-16.31M	-34.57M	37.36M
	Total Liabilities
120.13M	84.05M	79.13M	103.49M	138.93M
	Stockholders Equity
474.39M	684.43M	715.08M	663.40M	411.26M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
72.50M	-21.83M	20.13M	59.28M	14.70M
	Operating Cash Flow
72.50M	43.23M	88.82M	79.07M	31.14M
	Investing Cash Flow
-29.53M	-59.55M	-79.18M	-14.82M	-15.16M
	Financing Cash Flow
-5.72M	1.89M	-27.70M	-47.28M	-17.04M

Intrepid Potash Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 25.86
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IPI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.45, below the 50-day MA of 26.94, and above the 200-day MA of 25.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IPI.

Intrepid Potash Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	73 Outperform	$12.16B	10.84	22.76%	2.74%	-10.48%	-13.78%
UAN	72 Outperform	$735.44M	12.08	20.44%	9.71%	-22.91%	-64.68%
AGRO	71 Outperform	$1.11B	12.30	7.11%	3.09%	18.45%	-57.55%
MOS	64 Neutral	$7.43B	43.00	1.47%	3.62%	-18.79%	-84.24%
IPI	60 Neutral	$342.03M	―	-36.73%	―	-8.74%	-492.08%
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.36B	-2.99	-21.59%	3.58%	4.21%	-28.30%

Intrepid Potash Corporate Events

Intrepid Potash Expands Board and Strengthens Governance

Intrepid Potash announced the appointment of Gonzalo Avendano as an independent director, effective January 14, 2025, expanding the board from seven to eight members. Avendano, with over 30 years in finance and wealth management, is expected to bring valuable insights into capital markets and business strategy. He joins various board committees and will receive compensation for his partial service term. The company also entered a cooperation agreement with Clearway Capital Management LLC, where Avendano is an investment advisor, to avoid proxy contests and adhere to voting commitments until the 2027 stockholders meeting. This move highlights Intrepid’s efforts to enhance governance and align with shareholder interests.