Mosaic Co (MOS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.60B
• Dividend Yield: 3.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.87M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 43.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: -18.79%
• EPS Growth: -84.24%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,049
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Agriculture
• EPS (TTM): 0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 317,645,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,200,602
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,866,120
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.66
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 6.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.70
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $31.10
• Price Target Upside: 34.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

Mosaic's overall stock score reflects a blend of positive strategic initiatives and market challenges. The company's financial performance shows strong balance sheet health but is offset by declining revenue and cash flow constraints. Technical analysis indicates a bearish sentiment, with the stock trading below key moving averages and indicators showing oversold conditions. Valuation metrics point to a high P/E ratio, though the dividend yield offers some appeal. Positively, the earnings call suggests optimism for future growth, despite existing operational and market challenges.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

2025 EBITDA is revised from $2,225M to $2,422M, which is higher than consensus.

Market Conditions

Market conditions are improving, with a better industry outlook for crops, potash, and phosphate.

Negative Factors

Financial Outlook

Capex did not fall as expected, impacting the company's financial outlook.

Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Mosaic Co. engages in the production and marketing of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company operates its businesses through its wholly and majority owned subsidiaries. It operates through the following segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The Phosphates segment owns and operates mines and production facilities in North America which produces concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, and concentrated crop nutrients. The Potash segment owns and operates potash mines and production facilities in North America which produce potash-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and industrial products. The Mosaic Fertilizantes segment produces and sell phosphate and potash-based crop nutrients, and animal feed ingredients, in Brazil. The company was founded on October 22, 2004 and is headquartered in Plymouth, MN.

How the Company Makes Money

Mosaic makes money primarily through the sale of its phosphate and potash products. In the Phosphates segment, revenue is generated by mining phosphate rock and processing it into finished phosphate products such as diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP), which are sold to agricultural businesses worldwide. In the Potash segment, the company extracts potash ore and converts it into a range of products that are used as fertilizer and in industrial applications. Key revenue streams include direct sales to agricultural retailers and distributors, long-term supply agreements, and exports to international markets. Mosaic's earnings are significantly influenced by global agricultural demand, crop prices, and nutrient application rates. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its production capacity and market reach.

Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mosaic Co's financial performance is mixed. The income statement shows a decline in revenue and margins, impacting profitability. The balance sheet is stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio and strong equity base. However, cash flow is concerning with a significant decrease in free cash flow, although operating cash flow remains robust.

Income Statement

The Mosaic Co has shown a decline in revenue and profitability in the TTM period compared to the previous year. The TTM Gross Profit Margin stands at 15.72%, with a Net Profit Margin of 3.24%. Both margins have decreased from the previous year, indicating pressure on profitability. The Revenue Growth Rate is negative, reflecting a decrease in revenue. Although the EBIT and EBITDA Margins also decreased, they remained positive, suggesting operational stability despite the revenue decline.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.36, indicating a balanced leverage position. Return on Equity (ROE) is 3.14%, which is relatively low, reflecting reduced profitability. The Equity Ratio is 50.71%, suggesting a strong equity base compared to its assets, providing financial stability.

Cash Flow

The Free Cash Flow has significantly decreased in the TTM period, with a negative growth rate of 70.02%. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 4.36, indicating robust operating cash flow despite lower net income. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.81, showing adequate cash generation relative to earnings but indicating a decreasing trend.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Income Statement		Total Revenue
11.46B	13.70B	19.13B	12.36B	8.68B	8.91B
	Gross Profit
1.80B	2.21B	5.76B	3.20B	1.06B	897.30M
	EBIT
842.10M	1.34B	3.75B	1.82B	-421.80M	-514.00M
	EBITDA
2.02B	2.57B	4.79B	3.30B	412.90M	-92.30M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
371.20M	1.16B	3.58B	1.63B	666.10M	-1.03B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
348.80M	348.80M	735.40M	769.50M	574.00M	519.10M
	Total Assets
23.03B	23.03B	23.39B	22.04B	19.79B	19.30B
	Total Debt
3.99B	3.99B	3.62B	4.28B	4.58B	4.61B
	Net Debt
3.65B	3.65B	2.89B	3.51B	4.00B	4.10B
	Total Liabilities
10.60B	10.60B	11.19B	11.29B	10.03B	9.93B
	Stockholders Equity
12.29B	12.29B	12.05B	10.60B	9.58B	9.19B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
301.40M	1.00B	2.69B	898.40M	412.00M	-176.80M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.62B	2.41B	3.94B	2.19B	1.58B	1.10B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.35B	-1.32B	-1.26B	-1.32B	-1.19B	-1.36B
	Financing Cash Flow
-579.30M	-1.48B	-2.68B	-682.10M	-283.80M	-82.20M

Mosaic Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 23.08
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.05, below the 50-day MA of 26.06, and below the 200-day MA of 26.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.20 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOS.

Mosaic Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	73 Outperform	$13.74B	12.02	24.43%	2.56%	-10.48%	-13.78%
MOS	63 Neutral	$7.60B	43.86	1.52%	3.60%	-18.79%	-84.24%
FMC	63 Neutral	$4.61B	13.61	-0.06%	6.53%	-5.36%	-74.25%
IPI	54 Neutral	$319.17M	―	-44.87%	―	-8.74%	-492.08%
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.64B	-4.00	-31.55%	3.33%	2.93%	-29.90%
SMG	46 Neutral	$3.37B	―	4.98%	4.51%	3.61%	94.27%

Mosaic Co Corporate Events

Mosaic Co Appoints Two New Directors to Board

The Board of Directors of Mosaic Co has elected Sonya C. Little and Kathleen M. Shanahan as directors for a term expiring in 2025. Ms. Little will join the Audit Committee, while Ms. Shanahan will join the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, with both receiving compensation as non-employee directors and a prorated grant of restricted stock units.