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Exxon Mobil (XOM)
NYSE:XOM
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Exxon Mobil
(NYSE:XOM)
76Outperform
Positive Factors
Earnings Growth
Exxon Mobil expects to increase earnings by over $20 billion and cash flow by approximately $30 billion by the end of the decade.
Growth Strategy
The Pioneer acquisition has strengthened Exxon Mobil's position in the Permian Basin, doubling production and increasing exposure to short-cycle, lower cost-of-supply production.
Shareholder Returns
The company has announced robust cash flows and shareholder distributions, highlighted by record USD19bn share buybacks with a 4% dividend increase.
Negative Factors
Earnings Expectations
1Q25 outlook suggests lower Product Solutions earnings with higher maintenance in this segment.
Market Risks
Exxon Mobil's global presence exposes it to significant macroeconomic risks, as earnings depend on the price volatility of crude oil, natural gas, and other refinery products.
Stock Performance
The stock has derated by 9.7% compared to a slight increase in the XLE index over the last 3 months.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$446.67B
Dividend Yield3.77%
Average Volume (3M)18.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.1
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth1.86%
EPS Growth-11.52%
CountryUS
Employees61,000
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength62
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.85
Shares Outstanding4,339,143,600
10 Day Avg. Volume18,295,566
30 Day Avg. Volume18,559,760
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)1.48
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)10.30
P/FCF Ratio10.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$132.56Price Target Upside31.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
Exxon Mobil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionExxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is a leading global energy company headquartered in Irving, Texas. It operates across various sectors, including exploration, production, refining, and marketing of oil and natural gas, as well as chemicals manufacturing. The company is engaged in the production of crude oil and natural gas, the manufacture of petroleum products, and the transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products. Additionally, Exxon Mobil is involved in the development of next-generation technologies to support energy transition and sustainability efforts.
How the Company Makes MoneyExxon Mobil makes money through its diversified operations in the oil and gas industry. The primary revenue streams include upstream activities, which involve the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas; downstream operations, which focus on refining and marketing petroleum products; and the chemical sector, which manufactures and sells petrochemicals. The company also engages in transportation and logistics of oil and gas products. Exxon Mobil's earnings are influenced by factors such as global energy demand, oil prices, refining margins, and efficiency in production and operations. Strategic partnerships and investments in technology development for sustainable energy solutions also contribute to the company's revenue.
Exxon Mobil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Exxon Mobil shows a solid financial performance with a strong gross profit margin and stable EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational efficiency. However, negative revenue growth and a decline in net income are concerns. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage and high equity ratio, while cash flow management is efficient despite some decline.Income Statement
Exxon Mobil shows a solid financial performance with a strong gross profit margin of 27.8% and a net profit margin of 9.7% for 2024. Despite a decrease in net income from 2023, the company has managed to maintain stable EBIT and EBITDA margins of 13.1% and 14.1% respectively, indicating operational efficiency. However, revenue growth has been negative over the past year, which is a concern.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
Exxon Mobil maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25, reflecting strong capital management. The equity ratio stands at 59.7%, showing a robust equity position. However, slight increases in total debt pose a risk, though they are well-managed against the equity base.80
Positive
Cash Flow
The company demonstrates efficient cash flow management with a free cash flow of $30.7 billion in 2024, although it represents a decline from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.63, indicating good cash-generating ability relative to net income. However, the decrease in free cash flow growth over the last year is a downside.70
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 339.25B | 334.70B | 398.68B | 276.69B | 178.57B | Gross Profit |
| 76.74B | 84.14B | 103.07B | 64.89B | 8.13B | EBIT |
| 39.65B | 44.46B | 64.03B | 24.02B | -29.45B | EBITDA |
| 73.31B | 74.27B | 102.59B | 52.79B | 18.28B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 33.68B | 36.01B | 55.74B | 23.04B | -22.44B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 23.19B | 31.54B | 29.64B | 6.80B | 4.36B | Total Assets |
| 453.48B | 376.32B | 369.07B | 338.92B | 332.75B | Total Debt |
| 68.78B | 47.71B | 41.19B | 47.70B | 67.64B | Net Debt |
| 45.59B | 16.14B | 11.55B | 40.90B | 63.28B | Total Liabilities |
| 182.87B | 163.78B | 166.59B | 163.24B | 168.62B | Stockholders Equity |
| 270.61B | 204.80B | 195.05B | 168.58B | 157.15B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 30.72B | 33.45B | 58.39B | 36.05B | -2.61B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 55.02B | 55.37B | 76.80B | 48.13B | 14.67B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -19.94B | -20.04B | -14.74B | -10.23B | -18.46B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -42.79B | -33.53B | -37.64B | -35.42B | 5.29B |
Exxon Mobil Technical Analysis
Negative
100.77
Price Trends
110.68
Negative
111.01
Negative
112.79
Negative
Market Momentum
2.45
Negative
69.47
Neutral
82.27
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XOM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 100.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 113.37, below the 50-day MA of 110.68, and below the 200-day MA of 112.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 2.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XOM.
Exxon Mobil Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $189.56B | 12.55 | 8.82% | 4.46% | -5.74% | -11.09% | |
78 Outperform | $116.26B | 8.09 | 13.43% | 5.00% | -10.66% | -23.19% | |
76 Outperform | $446.67B | 13.14 | 14.38% | 3.77% | 1.86% | -11.52% | |
76 Outperform | $245.22B | 14.42 | 11.28% | 4.71% | -1.90% | -14.56% | |
65 Neutral | $73.37B | 11.41 | 10.52% | 21.99% | -10.81% | -70.65% | |
61 Neutral | $74.63B | 198.74 | 0.59% | 6.83% | -9.97% | -98.08% | |
57 Neutral | $7.52B | 4.07 | -3.52% | 8.38% | -0.14% | -64.60% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
XOM
Exxon Mobil
100.77
-16.45
-14.03%
BP
BP
26.11
-11.06
-29.76%
CVX
Chevron
136.93
-18.35
-11.82%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
11.46
-1.76
-13.31%
SHEL
Shell
59.75
-9.27
-13.43%
TTE
TotalEnergies
53.37
-16.49
-23.60%
Exxon Mobil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Jan 31, 2025 | % Change Since: -7.21% | Next Earnings Date: May 2, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
ExxonMobil's earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, record production achievements, and progress in low-carbon solutions, despite challenges in cost management and chemical margins. The company's strategic focus on growth and technology-driven businesses shows a positive outlook, although legal and market challenges remain.Highlights
Strong Financial Performance
ExxonMobil reported earnings of $34 billion in 2024, the third highest result in a decade, with a compounded annual growth rate of nearly 30% over five years. The company generated $55 billion in cash flow from operations, also the third highest in a decade.
Record Production Achievements
ExxonMobil achieved the highest-ever production from its advantaged assets and the highest liquid production from its overall portfolio in more than 40 years. In the Permian, the company delivered record production with expected synergies of more than $3 billion per year from combined assets.
Significant Progress in Low-Carbon Solutions
ExxonMobil contracted more CO2 for transport and storage than any other company by far, with 6.7 million tons per year. The company also announced new equity partnerships and off-take agreements in hydrogen and lithium.
Advancements in Chemical and New Technologies
The company is set to start a new facility that can produce 25,000 metric tons of Proxxima products in 2025 and plans to grow to nearly 200,000 tons by 2030. Additionally, ExxonMobil's new technology-driven businesses are expected to create significant opportunities in higher growth, higher margin markets.
Expansion of High-Value Product Sales
ExxonMobil achieved record sales of high-value products in 2024, driven by ongoing shifts to a more profitable product mix and divesting non-strategic assets.
Lowlights
Challenges in Cost Management
Despite achieving structural cost reductions, ExxonMobil faces the challenge of maintaining efficiency and managing costs as it grows. The company aims to achieve an additional $6 billion in structural cost savings by 2030.
Legal Challenges Impacting Operations
ExxonMobil filed a lawsuit against the California Attorney General and activist groups for defamation and interference in its advanced recycling business, indicating ongoing legal challenges.
Market Conditions Affecting Chemical Margins
ExxonMobil's chemical margins have been well below the 10-year average, with ongoing challenges in balancing supply and demand in the market.
Company Guidance
In the fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, ExxonMobil provided a comprehensive overview of their performance metrics and future guidance. The company reported earnings of $34 billion, marking it as the third highest result in a decade, and a cash flow from operations at $55 billion. They achieved a return on capital employed (ROCE) of 13%, with a five-year industry-leading average of 11%. Excluding cash balances in capital and projects under construction, the 2024 ROCE rises to about 17%. ExxonMobil highlighted record production across several areas, including the Permian and Guyana, with Permian production expected to grow from 1.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2024 to 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030. They also emphasized a more than 60% reduction in methane intensity since 2016. The company aims for over $3 billion per year of synergies from combined assets and projects $3 billion in earnings potential from new projects by 2026. They are focused on expanding in low-carbon solutions, with significant customer contracts and partnerships in carbon capture and hydrogen, aiming for a total addressable market of $100 billion by 2030. ExxonMobil plans to maintain a capital expenditure between $27 billion to $29 billion in 2025, increasing to $28 billion to $33 billion from 2026 to 2030, with a commitment to sustainable shareholder returns.Exxon Mobil Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
Exxon Mobil Previews Q1 2025 Financial Influences
Neutral
Apr 3, 2025
Exxon Mobil’s management has provided insights into factors expected to impact the company’s first-quarter 2025 results compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. These factors include market dynamics, planned activities, and seasonal demand patterns, but do not encompass all changes or estimate the earnings for 1Q 2025. The company noted potential effects from changes in liquid and gas prices, industry margins, and timing effects, as well as scheduled maintenance and seasonal factors. The announcement aims to give stakeholders an understanding of anticipated influences on financial outcomes, although it does not account for all adjustments and charges related to industry conditions.
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Exxon Mobil Announces Leadership Change with McKee’s Retirement
Neutral
Apr 3, 2025
Karen T. McKee, president of ExxonMobil Product Solutions Company and vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation, announced her retirement effective May 1, 2025. This leadership change may impact the company’s strategic direction and operations, influencing its market positioning and stakeholder relations.
Stock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Exxon Mobil Reports Strong 2024 Financial Performance
Positive
Jan 31, 2025
On January 31, 2025, Exxon Mobil announced its financial results for 2024, achieving $33.7 billion in earnings and $55.0 billion in cash flow from operations, marking its third-best year in a decade. The company reported record production levels in the Permian and Guyana regions and high sales volumes of valuable products. Exxon Mobil also distributed $36.0 billion to shareholders, continued its structural cost savings, and maintained a leading return on capital employed. However, earnings were slightly lower compared to 2023 due to decreased industry refining margins and natural gas prices. The company plans to extend its share-repurchase program and has consistently increased its dividends, reflecting strong shareholder returns.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.