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Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)
:PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR) AI Stock Analysis

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PBPetroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
(NYSE:PBR)
77Outperform
Petrobras showcases strong financial and operational performance, with efficient debt management and attractive valuation metrics contributing positively. Despite challenges in revenue growth and exploration difficulties, the company's solid cash flow and dividend yield provide a robust investment case, resulting in an overall favorable stock assessment.
Positive Factors
Corporate Governance
The decision to hike diesel prices showcases improvement on the corporate governance front.
Negative Factors
Dividends
Petrobras announced a lower-than-expected dividend for 4Q24, which implies a yield well below expectations.
Financial Performance
4Q24 adjusted EBITDA came in 6% below consensus, with the Upstream segment underperforming.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPetróleo Brasileiro S.A., commonly known as Petrobras, is a Brazilian multinational corporation in the energy sector. Primarily engaged in oil and gas exploration, production, refining, and transportation, Petrobras operates extensively across various stages of the oil and gas value chain. The company's core products include crude oil, natural gas, petroleum derivatives, and biofuels. With a significant presence in Brazil and abroad, Petrobras is a key player in the global oil and gas industry, focusing on deep-water and ultra-deep water exploration.
How the Company Makes MoneyPetrobras generates revenue through several key streams within the oil and gas industry. The primary source of income is from the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, where the company leverages its expertise in deep-water drilling to access substantial reserves. The refining and transportation of petroleum products also contribute significantly to its earnings, as Petrobras operates a large network of refineries and distribution channels. Additionally, the company is involved in the sale of petroleum derivatives and biofuels. Petrobras also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures, both domestically and internationally, which bolster its exploration and production capabilities, enhancing revenue opportunities. Furthermore, fluctuations in global oil prices and domestic market policy can significantly impact Petrobras's financial performance, influencing its profitability.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras has a solid financial performance with high profitability margins and efficient operational management. Despite a drop in revenue growth and free cash flow, its balance sheet remains stable with a moderate debt level and strong cash flow generation.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras shows a robust financial performance with a solid gross profit margin of 51.83% and a net profit margin of 16.95% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, the revenue growth rate is negative at -4.49% compared to the previous year, indicating a decline in sales. The EBIT margin of 33.87% and EBITDA margin of 40.81% are strong, reflecting efficient operational management.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a balanced financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.82, indicating a moderate level of debt compared to equity. The return on equity (ROE) is 22.93%, showcasing effective utilization of shareholders' equity to generate profits. An equity ratio of 36.52% suggests a stable financial position, though improvements could be made to enhance financial independence.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Petrobras demonstrates strong cash flow management with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.58 in TTM, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.41, highlighting robust cash generation. Although the free cash flow growth rate is negative at -15.69% from the previous year, the company still maintains solid free cash flows.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
97.71B102.41B124.47B83.97B53.68B76.59B
Gross Profit
50.64B53.97B64.99B40.80B24.49B30.86B
EBIT
33.10B39.27B53.26B31.00B20.05B20.92B
EBITDA
39.88B52.30B70.05B44.90B16.99B33.52B
Net Income Common Stockholders
16.57B24.88B36.62B19.88B1.14B10.15B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
15.55B15.55B10.77B11.12B12.37B8.26B
Total Assets
217.07B217.07B187.19B174.35B190.01B229.74B
Total Debt
62.60B62.60B53.80B58.74B75.54B87.12B
Net Debt
49.87B49.87B45.80B48.28B63.83B79.75B
Total Liabilities
138.09B138.09B117.36B104.54B130.13B155.53B
Stockholders Equity
78.58B78.58B69.49B69.41B59.35B73.32B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
26.22B31.10B40.14B31.47B23.02B1.70B
Operating Cash Flow
40.01B43.21B49.72B37.79B28.89B25.60B
Investing Cash Flow
-13.12B-7.96B-432.00M2.16B-4.51B-1.68B
Financing Cash Flow
-30.36B-30.70B-51.45B-40.79B-19.26B-32.07B

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price12.85
Price Trends
50DMA
13.66
Negative
100DMA
13.38
Negative
200DMA
13.42
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.20
Positive
RSI
31.22
Neutral
STOCH
10.62
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.93, below the 50-day MA of 13.66, and below the 200-day MA of 13.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PBR.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
COCOP
78
Outperform
$115.33B11.6116.16%3.51%-2.57%-14.01%
PBPBR
77
Outperform
$80.00B12.3210.52%20.57%-7.42%-38.32%
CVCVX
76
Outperform
$265.52B15.5211.28%4.38%-1.90%-14.56%
XOXOM
76
Outperform
$457.52B13.4614.38%3.68%1.86%-11.52%
HEHES
75
Outperform
$43.90B15.8527.41%1.33%20.51%99.86%
OXOXY
72
Outperform
$42.74B18.628.88%1.93%-4.35%-37.69%
57
Neutral
$8.34B5.35-5.98%7.29%0.20%-69.45%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
12.85
-1.06
-7.62%
CVX
Chevron
152.95
9.77
6.82%
COP
Conocophillips
88.60
-20.96
-19.13%
XOM
Exxon Mobil
107.62
3.76
3.62%
HES
Hess
143.34
0.94
0.66%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
45.71
-14.58
-24.18%

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: -10.27% | Next Earnings Date: May 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Petrobras showed strong financial health with record cash generation, debt reduction, and successful production expansion. Despite facing external market challenges and accounting losses due to exchange rate variations, the company remains optimistic about future production increases and investment in profitable projects.
Highlights
Record Cash Generation
Petrobras generated over BRL 200 million in cash and paid over BRL 102 billion in dividends in 2024, with an operating cash flow of BRL 204 billion.
Investment and Debt Reduction
Investments increased by 31% to $16 billion, and financial debt was reduced to the lowest level since 2008, at $23.2 billion.
Successful Production Expansion
Operation of FPSO Almirante Tamandare in the Buzios field started, with capacity for 225,000 barrels of oil a day, marking Buzios as the largest deepwater operations field in the world.
Increase in Reserves
Petrobras produced 900 million barrels of oil and replenished 1.2 billion barrels to its reserves in 2024.
Refining and Sustainability Achievements
Record-breaking production in S10 diesel, and inclusion in the Dow Jones Index of Sustainability, highlighting achievements in governance, environmental, and social areas.
Lowlights
Accounting Loss in Q4
Petrobras reported a loss of BRL 17 billion in Q4 due to exchange rate variations impacting Petrobras' debt, resulting in an accounting impact of BRL 59 billion.
External Market Challenges
Depreciation of Brent crude by 2% and a 40% drop in diesel crack spread impacted financial results negatively.
Delays in Licenses and Maintenance
Production was affected by delays in licenses due to strikes at Ibama and mandatory maintenance shutdowns.
Company Guidance
During Petrobras' Full Year 2024 earnings call, the company provided detailed guidance and insights into its financial and operational performance. In 2024, Petrobras generated over BRL 200 million in cash and paid BRL 102 billion in dividends, despite challenging conditions with lower Brent and diesel crack prices. The company increased its investments by 31% to $16 billion and reduced its debt to the lowest level since 2008. Petrobras reported a loss of BRL 17 billion in Q4, attributed to an accounting event related to exchange rate variations, which impacted debt but not the company's cash flow. The company also began operations of an FPSO in the Buzios field, boosting capacity by 225,000 barrels of oil per day, with expectations to increase production further. Petrobras advanced investments from 2025 to 2024, resulting in a higher present net value by approximately $2.2 billion over three years. The call highlighted Petrobras' strategic focus on increasing production, advancing investments, and maintaining financial health, with a planned increase of 100,000 barrels of oil per day in 2025. The company emphasized its commitment to sustainability, governance, and strategic investments in new projects, including exploration in the equatorial margin and other potential areas.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.