tiprankstipranks
United Homes Group, Inc (UHG)
:UHG

United Homes Group (UHG) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
29 Followers

Top Page

UH

United Homes Group

(NASDAQ:UHG)

67Neutral
United Homes Group demonstrates strong financial performance and is undervalued, offering potential growth opportunities. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to bearish trends, and challenges highlighted in the earnings call and corporate events pose risks. The company's strategic initiatives are promising, but market volatility and competitive pressures warrant a balanced outlook.

United Homes Group (UHG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

United Homes Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUnited Homes Group (UHG) is a prominent real estate development company that specializes in residential construction and development projects. UHG focuses on creating high-quality, sustainable housing solutions that cater to a wide range of customers, from first-time homebuyers to luxury property seekers. The company's core services include land acquisition, architectural design, construction, and sales of residential properties.
How the Company Makes MoneyUnited Homes Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of residential properties. The company purchases undeveloped land, designs housing communities, constructs the homes, and then sells them to consumers. UHG may also earn income through partnerships with financial institutions for mortgage facilitation and through offering additional services like property management or interior design. Their revenue model is heavily reliant on real estate market conditions, land acquisition costs, and the company's ability to efficiently manage construction and sales processes.

United Homes Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
United Homes Group excels in profitability and financial management with strong revenue growth and improved financial stability. The elimination of debt and robust cash flows underscore resilience and potential for growth. However, past leverage levels highlight the importance of maintaining prudent financial practices.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
United Homes Group demonstrates strong profitability with a healthy gross profit margin and net profit margin, driven by consistent revenue growth over the years. Notably, the company achieved significant revenue growth from 2023 to 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate efficient operational management, supporting high performance in the residential construction industry.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid equity position with a significant improvement in stockholders' equity in 2024. The company has eliminated its debt, thus showcasing excellent financial stability and a strong equity ratio. However, historical leverage was relatively high, which could have posed risks in less favorable conditions.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
United Homes Group exhibits robust cash flow management with significant free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating effective cash generation relative to earnings. The transition to positive free cash flow and substantial cash reserves in 2024 further highlight financial flexibility.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
10.00T>421.47M477.05M432.89M327.25M
Gross Profit
79.83T79.73M118.81M100.62M67.14M
EBIT
5.13T14.63M69.12M62.16M37.25M
EBITDA
5.13T15.96M70.00M62.51M37.43M
Net Income Common Stockholders
46.91T125.06M69.49M62.41M38.98M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
22.63B56.67M12.24M51.50M29.18M
Total Assets
265.38B298.65M208.34M202.26M131.60M
Total Debt
0.00154.06M121.80M102.50M74.82M
Net Debt
-22.63B97.38M109.56M51.00M45.64M
Total Liabilities
198.51B329.83M149.34M135.70M97.43M
Stockholders Equity
66.87B-31.18M59.00M66.56M34.17M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
15.41B28.06M34.45M57.91M70.98M
Operating Cash Flow
15.44B28.22M34.62M58.32M71.78M
Investing Cash Flow
-12.59B-24.30M-206.88K-394.05K-785.29K
Financing Cash Flow
0.0040.51M-73.68M-35.60M-51.42M

United Homes Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.85
Price Trends
50DMA
3.75
Negative
100DMA
4.43
Negative
200DMA
5.17
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.26
Positive
RSI
35.42
Neutral
STOCH
11.21
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UHG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.29, below the 50-day MA of 3.75, and below the 200-day MA of 5.17, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.21 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UHG.

United Homes Group Risk Analysis

United Homes Group disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United Homes Group reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

United Homes Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
DHDHI
78
Outperform
$40.06B8.9819.35%1.10%2.12%1.63%
PHPHM
74
Outperform
$20.77B7.0127.40%0.81%11.74%25.66%
TOTOL
69
Neutral
$10.50B7.2720.38%0.87%5.86%12.20%
LELEN
68
Neutral
$30.16B8.3614.99%1.75%2.06%-3.67%
UHUHG
67
Neutral
$167.02M3.65262.89%10.02%-30.65%
NVNVR
66
Neutral
$21.42B14.3939.23%10.81%10.16%
59
Neutral
$12.18B11.09-1.08%3.77%1.26%-19.82%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
UHG
United Homes Group
2.91
-3.80
-56.63%
DHI
DR Horton
127.97
-28.42
-18.17%
LEN
Lennar
115.66
-41.84
-26.57%
NVR
NVR
7,302.07
-612.23
-7.74%
PHM
PulteGroup
104.33
-10.46
-9.11%
TOL
Toll Brothers
106.91
-18.21
-14.55%

United Homes Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 12, 2025 | % Change Since: -20.17% | Next Earnings Date: May 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture. On the positive side, United Homes reported growth in new home deliveries and orders, a successful product redesign that improved gross margins, and a beneficial capital markets transaction that reduced leverage and cash interest expenses. However, challenges were noted such as declines in new home starts and community count, decreased gross profit margins due to a competitive market, and the impact of high mortgage rates on affordability. Additionally, there was a significant non-cash loss related to convertible notes. While there are positive initiatives in place, the challenges balance out the highlights.
Highlights
Year-Over-Year Growth in New Home Deliveries and Orders
United Homes ended 2024 with a 7% year-over-year growth in new home deliveries and a 19% increase in net new home orders in the fourth quarter.
Successful Product Redesign
The company refreshed its product lineup, leading to improved gross margins and strong sales. Over half of the early sales of the refreshed product came from pre-sales, building a backlog for future periods.
Capital Markets Transaction
In December, United Homes refinanced outstanding debt, reducing leverage by $10 million and cash interest expense by 320 basis points. The transaction also reduced potential dilution from the convertible note on share count by about 30%.
Revenue Growth
Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $134.8 million, up from $116.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. For the full year, revenue increased to $463.7 million from $421.5 million in 2023.
Lowlights
Decline in New Home Starts and Community Count
New home starts declined 26% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. The active community count at year-end fell to 46, down from 61 at the end of 2023.
Decreased Gross Profit Margins
Gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 16.2%, down from 18.5% in the prior year period. Adjusted gross profit margin declined to 18.1% from 21.8% in Q4 2023 due to a competitive pricing environment and sales incentives.
Impact of High Mortgage Rates
Persistently high mortgage rates continue to negatively impact affordability, leading to the use of mortgage incentives that significantly affect gross margins.
Loss on Convertible Notes
The fourth quarter included a reported loss on the extinguishment of convertible notes totaling $45.6 million, predominantly non-cash in nature.
Company Guidance
During the United Homes Group Fourth Quarter 2024 earnings call, the interim CEO, Jamie Pirrello, discussed several strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing the company's financial and operational performance. Key metrics highlighted included a 7% year-over-year growth in new home deliveries and a 19% increase in net new home orders for the fourth quarter. Despite a 26% decline in new home starts, strategic efforts such as product redesign and cost re-bidding are expected to improve gross margins, which currently stand at 16.2% for the quarter, down from 18.5% the previous year. The company also executed a capital markets transaction that reduced leverage by $10 million and lowered cash interest expense by 320 basis points. Looking ahead, UHG plans to open 26 new communities in 2025, and its backlog at year-end was 157 homes valued at approximately $58.3 million. These initiatives reflect the company's focus on maintaining competitive positioning and long-term growth prospects amid challenging market conditions.

United Homes Group Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
United Homes Group Sets 2025 Executive Compensation Plan
Neutral
Jan 28, 2025

On January 22, 2025, United Homes Group’s Compensation Committee approved the 2025 Executive Compensation Framework for its executives. This framework, developed with WealthPoint Business Advisory Services, LLC, includes base salaries, cash bonuses based on performance metrics, and equity awards in the form of time-based stock options and performance stock units. The compensation structure aims to align executive incentives with company performance, potentially impacting company operations and stakeholder interests.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
United Homes Group Sees Growth in New Orders
Positive
Jan 7, 2025

United Homes Group reported a 19.4% increase in net new orders and a 7.0% rise in closings for the fourth quarter of 2024. The company attributes this growth to efforts in moving completed inventory and an initiative to redesign house plans for better market alignment. While starts decreased as new plans were finalized, construction on redesigned homes began in December. United Homes Group anticipates 2025 to be transformational, driven by strong market dynamics in its southeastern U.S. markets.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.