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Post Holdings Inc (POST)
NYSE:POST
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Post Holdings
(NYSE:POST)
70Outperform
Positive Factors
Profitability
Management focuses on profitability over topline growth, especially in retail, while it could also benefit from incremental avian-flu driven pricing and value-add foodservice products.
Valuation and Share Buyback
With profit growth potential ahead of numerous food peers, a FCF yield ~10%, and aggressive share buyback strategy, the current valuation is seen as simply too low.
Negative Factors
Cost Pressures
POST's volumes are soft, and they expect to incur an incremental $30-$50mm in avian-flu related cost pressures in FQ2.
Volume Headwinds
Persistent volume headwinds have led to a trimming of the price target.
Post Holdings (POST) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.37B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)653.73K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.0
Beta (1Y)0.12
Revenue Growth7.32%
EPS Growth34.44%
CountryUS
Employees11,480
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength91
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.95
Shares Outstanding56,481,850
10 Day Avg. Volume558,229
30 Day Avg. Volume653,732
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.55
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)5.10
P/FCF Ratio6.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$128.44Price Target Upside13.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
Post Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPost Holdings, Inc. is a consumer packaged goods holding company headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri. It operates across multiple segments, including Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, Refrigerated Retail, and BellRing Brands. The company is known for its diverse range of products, which includes cereals, egg products, protein shakes, and other refrigerated and frozen foods. Post Holdings serves both the retail and foodservice channels, offering products under well-recognized brand names such as Post, Weetabix, Bob Evans, and Premier Protein.
How the Company Makes MoneyPost Holdings generates revenue through the sale of its diverse product offerings across its various segments. The Post Consumer Brands segment focuses on ready-to-eat cereals, while the Weetabix segment delivers cereal and cereal-related products primarily in the United Kingdom. The Refrigerated Retail segment sells a range of refrigerated and frozen products, including side dishes and egg-based items. The Foodservice segment supplies egg and potato products to foodservice distributors and operators. Additionally, the BellRing Brands segment contributes significantly through the sale of protein-based nutrition products like shakes and bars. Post Holdings benefits from its strategic partnerships and distribution agreements, which help expand its market reach and consumer base. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as consumer demand, commodity costs, and operational efficiencies.
Post Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Post Holdings demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability with effective cost management. While leverage remains high, the company maintains a healthy ROE and cash flow position. The financials suggest a stable yet leveraged growth trajectory, with good operational efficiency and cash generation capabilities.Income Statement
Post Holdings shows robust profitability with a stable Gross Profit Margin of approximately 29% in TTM. The Net Profit Margin improved to 4.9% from 4.6% annually, indicating efficient cost management. Revenue growth is evident at 13.4% from 2023 to 2024, showcasing strong market demand. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 10.3% and 14.6% respectively, highlighting operational efficiency.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's Debt-to-Equity Ratio is relatively high at 1.79, which poses a potential risk if interest rates rise. However, Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 10.1% TTM, reflecting effective use of shareholders' funds. The Equity Ratio remains stable at around 30%, indicating a balanced capital structure.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow shows positive growth at 16.8% from the previous year, indicating healthy cash generation. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong at 1.93, demonstrating efficient cash conversion. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.04 supports sustainable operations.78
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | Sep 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 7.93B | 7.92B | 6.99B | 5.85B | 6.23B | 5.70B | Gross Profit |
| 2.30B | 2.30B | 1.88B | 1.47B | 1.81B | 1.79B | EBIT |
| 816.20M | 793.50M | 598.90M | 415.60M | 655.70M | 700.50M | EBITDA |
| 1.30B | 1.27B | 1.10B | 830.10M | 851.40M | 810.70M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 391.90M | 366.70M | 301.30M | 756.60M | 250.60M | 59.90M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 12.90M | 787.40M | 103.90M | 681.30M | 817.10M | 1.19B | Total Assets |
| 2.80B | 12.85B | 11.65B | 11.31B | 12.41B | 12.15B | Total Debt |
| 784.50M | 7.06B | 6.23B | 5.96B | 7.04B | 7.02B | Net Debt |
| 771.60M | 6.27B | 6.14B | 5.37B | 6.22B | 5.84B | Total Liabilities |
| 1.30B | 8.75B | 7.80B | 7.74B | 9.36B | 9.32B | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.50B | 4.09B | 3.84B | 3.25B | 2.74B | 2.85B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 580.00M | 502.20M | 447.30M | 128.90M | 395.70M | 391.00M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.07B | 931.70M | 750.30M | 384.20M | 588.20M | 625.60M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -472.00M | -677.50M | -669.30M | -220.20M | -793.60M | -218.50M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 115.10M | 415.60M | -555.70M | -237.20M | -167.50M | -272.00M |
Post Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
112.82
Price Trends
114.25
Negative
113.10
Negative
112.90
Negative
Market Momentum
0.13
Positive
44.48
Neutral
23.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 112.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 115.60, below the 50-day MA of 114.25, and below the 200-day MA of 112.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for POST.
Post Holdings Risk Analysis
Post Holdings disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Post Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Post Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $6.71B | 10.62 | 21.60% | 2.28% | 5.85% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $8.37B | 13.39 | 17.62% | 2.43% | -8.95% | 1.35% | |
71 Outperform | $9.64B | 35.43 | -190.65% | ― | 21.00% | 72.21% | |
70 Outperform | $6.37B | 18.97 | 10.01% | ― | 7.32% | 34.44% | |
69 Neutral | $4.58B | 16.78 | 6.21% | ― | -10.96% | -68.19% | |
68 Neutral | $7.90B | 21.95 | 21.63% | 2.76% | -2.49% | -65.96% | |
64 Neutral | $9.21B | 14.61 | 4.29% | 186.43% | 3.98% | 5.57% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
POST
Post Holdings
112.82
5.65
5.27%
BRFS
BRF SA
3.98
0.65
19.52%
DAR
Darling Ingredients
31.88
-12.33
-27.89%
INGR
Ingredion
130.20
17.92
15.96%
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
51.94
-30.96
-37.35%
BRBR
BellRing Brands
75.17
19.01
33.85%
Post Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 6, 2025 | % Change Since: 6.57% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. While there are strong performances in grocery, pet, and foodservice segments, and positive actions on share repurchases and capital allocation, challenges remain due to avian influenza, pet segment consumption decline, and refrigerated retail EBITDA drop.Highlights
Strong Start to Fiscal 2025
Fiscal 2025 is off to a good start with strong Q1 financial results driven by cost management and benefits from a diversified portfolio. Major ERP conversions were successfully executed at PCB, PET, and Weetabix.
Grocery and Pet Segments Performance
Grocery had a strong quarter with improved gross margin driven by cost performance and freight efficiencies. Pet segment benefited from improved cost and plant performance, with innovations like the relaunch of Nutrish underway.
Foodservice Volume Growth
Foodservice had a strong quarter driven by continued volume growth, ongoing avian influenza pricing from the May 2024 outbreak, and improved supply chain performance.
Share Repurchase and Capital Allocation
Post Holdings bought back over 4% of its shares while keeping net leverage flat, indicating strong liquidity and cash flow, well-positioned for potential M&A transactions.
Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Raised
The bottom end of FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised by $10 million to a range of $1.42 billion to $1.46 billion.
Lowlights
Avian Influenza Impact
Two third-party contracted farms were hit with Avian Influenza in December. The supply imbalance will cause sourcing and cost challenges, especially in fiscal Q2, with a potential headwind of $30 million to $50 million.
Pet Segment Challenges
Pet category consumption was down approximately 1%, with the portfolio declining 5% due to lost distribution points in Nutrish and price elasticity in Gravy Train.
Refrigerated Retail EBITDA Decline
Q1 adjusted EBITDA for refrigerated retail was down significantly compared to the prior year, due to the absence of customer-sponsored promotions and cost increases ahead of pricing for sausage and eggs.
Weetabix Volume Decline
Weetabix business performance was down as expected due to a pullback on promotions and ERP conversion impacts, with a volume decline of 12%.
Company Guidance
In the earnings conference call for Post Holdings' first quarter of fiscal year 2025, several key performance metrics and guidance details were discussed. The company reported consolidated net sales of $2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $370 million. For the Post Consumer Brands segment, net sales decreased by 6%, with volumes down by 9% but average net pricing increased by 3%. In the foodservice segment, net sales increased by 9% and volumes grew by 3%, driven by favorable volumes and elevated avian influenza-driven pricing. However, the company anticipates a headwind of $30 million to $50 million in the second fiscal quarter due to avian influenza impacts, although they are confident in recovering these costs throughout the fiscal year. Adjusted EBITDA for the refrigerated retail segment decreased by 22% due to lower volumes and increased costs. The company raised the bottom end of its FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $10 million, projecting a range of $1.42 billion to $1.46 billion.Post Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Post Holdings Caps CEO Retirement Plan at $2.5M
Neutral
Apr 11, 2025
On April 9, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. amended its 2024 Supplemental Executive Retirement Plan to cap the account balance of its President and CEO at $2.5 million, impacting future pay credits. This amendment reflects the company’s strategic decision to manage executive compensation and benefits, potentially influencing its financial planning and stakeholder relations.
Spark’s Take on POST Stock
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, POST is a Outperform.
Post Holdings demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and cash flow. However, high leverage and recent avian influenza impacts pose risks. Technical indicators suggest a stable outlook, while valuation is fair. The absence of a dividend yield and potential supply chain disruptions from avian influenza are notable concerns.
To see Spark’s full report on POST stock, click here.
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Post Holdings Approves Performance-Based Stock Units for Executives
Neutral
Apr 2, 2025
On March 27, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc.’s Corporate Governance and Compensation Committee approved performance-based restricted stock units (PRSUs) for key executives. These awards, part of the company’s long-term incentive plan, aim to align executive performance with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder value.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.