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Navigator Holdings (NVGS)
NYSE:NVGS

Navigator Holdings (NVGS) AI Stock Analysis

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Navigator Holdings

(NYSE:NVGS)

76Outperform
Navigator Holdings shows a robust financial performance with strong cash flows and profitability. Positive earnings call sentiment and technical indicators support a favorable outlook. While valuation is fair, the modest dividend and slight EBITDA decrease are noted. Overall, the company is well-positioned for future growth, especially in the fossil fuels industry.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Navigator reported a 4Q earnings beat on higher revenues.
Project Completion
The company completed the ethylene terminal expansion on time and within budget.
Negative Factors
Re-domiciling
The company is considering re-domiciling to the UK, which is expected to have a minor effect on taxes and finances.

Navigator Holdings (NVGS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Navigator Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNavigator Holdings Ltd. is a leading owner and operator of handysize liquefied gas carriers. The company specializes in the transport of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), petrochemical gases, and ammonia. With a modern and diversified fleet, Navigator Holdings serves a global customer base, offering reliable and flexible shipping solutions tailored to the needs of its clients in the energy and petrochemical sectors.
How the Company Makes MoneyNavigator Holdings makes money primarily through the chartering of its fleet of liquefied gas carriers. The company enters into time and voyage charters with major international energy companies, which provide steady and predictable streams of revenue. Time charters involve leasing a vessel for a fixed period, during which the charterer pays a daily rate, while voyage charters involve payment for transporting cargo between specified ports. Additionally, Navigator Holdings may engage in spot market charters to capitalize on short-term demand fluctuations. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by the global demand for LPG, petrochemical gases, and ammonia, as well as its ability to maintain high fleet utilization rates and optimize operational efficiency. Strategic partnerships with key players in the energy sector also play a role in bolstering Navigator Holdings' revenue.

Navigator Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Navigator Holdings presents a solid financial position with strong profitability, efficient cash flow management, and a stable balance sheet. The company's robust margins and cash flow metrics position it well for future resilience, despite moderate revenue and asset growth rates.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Navigator Holdings shows strong profitability with a solid gross profit margin of 31.8% and net profit margin of 14.5% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, increasing from $550.7 million in 2023 to $564.3 million in TTM, reflecting a 2.5% growth rate. The EBIT margin is robust at 25.1%, and the EBITDA margin stands at an impressive 46.0%, indicating efficient operations. However, the growth rate, while positive, is moderate.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet of Navigator Holdings reflects a stable financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47, which is relatively low for the industry, indicating prudent use of leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is healthy at 6.88% for TTM, showcasing effective use of shareholders' capital. The equity ratio of 55.9% underscores a strong equity base, providing financial stability. However, the company's asset growth has been modest, which could limit future expansion.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
Navigator Holdings exhibits strong cash flow health with a significant free cash flow of $216.9 million for TTM and a remarkable free cash flow growth rate from negative in 2023 to positive in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 2.95, indicating strong cash generation relative to reported earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 2.65, demonstrating excellent cash conversion. These metrics highlight efficient cash management.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
564.28M550.74M473.79M403.58M332.50M301.38M
Gross Profit
179.31M170.51M88.92M90.65M70.52M58.43M
EBIT
141.41M137.23M-70.51M56.42M41.75M32.61M
EBITDA
259.75M264.69M212.09M149.12M118.44M109.66M
Net Income Common Stockholders
81.73M82.25M29.08M-46.79M662.00K-15.48M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
71.52M149.58M153.19M124.01M59.06M66.13M
Total Assets
1.83B2.20B2.10B2.16B1.84B1.87B
Total Debt
835.95M857.05M810.54M920.50M792.50M816.90M
Net Debt
764.43M698.81M657.35M796.49M733.45M750.77M
Total Liabilities
877.64M969.61M923.33M1.04B897.01M934.67M
Stockholders Equity
955.11M1.19B1.16B1.11B940.54M939.80M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
216.88M-17.26M84.54M99.05M42.41M46.43M
Operating Cash Flow
241.35M174.70M130.31M102.59M44.67M49.70M
Investing Cash Flow
-28.06M-176.48M35.64M28.25M-16.15M-90.41M
Financing Cash Flow
-255.66M6.81M-134.14M-66.09M-35.38M35.32M

Navigator Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price13.68
Price Trends
50DMA
15.92
Negative
100DMA
15.75
Negative
200DMA
16.05
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.67
Positive
RSI
20.29
Positive
STOCH
14.89
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVGS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.96, below the 50-day MA of 15.92, and below the 200-day MA of 16.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 20.29 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVGS.

Navigator Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$963.32M12.347.14%1.45%5.99%13.57%
LPLPG
75
Outperform
$894.61M5.4215.72%-24.25%-48.08%
FRFRO
74
Outperform
$3.44B7.0121.46%12.48%
SFSFL
74
Outperform
$1.12B8.0312.05%13.19%19.49%39.16%
73
Outperform
$1.90B2.8924.68%4.13%-8.16%15.26%
57
Neutral
$3.54B68.752.44%3.06%-1.35%-75.72%
57
Neutral
$8.53B5.52-5.01%7.44%-0.10%-68.53%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NVGS
Navigator Holdings
13.68
-1.48
-9.76%
FRO
Frontline
15.43
-6.23
-28.76%
GLNG
Golar LNG
33.86
11.06
48.51%
STNG
Scorpio Tankers
39.57
-29.81
-42.97%
SFL
SFL Corporation
8.33
-3.23
-27.94%
LPG
Dorian LPG
21.75
-11.87
-35.31%

Navigator Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 12, 2025 | % Change Since: -0.80% | Next Earnings Date: May 26, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Navigator Holdings demonstrated strong financial performance with revenue growth, high vessel utilization, and successful bond issuance. However, challenges such as softer ethylene demand and geopolitical tensions present potential risks. The overall sentiment is slightly positive, with significant achievements outweighing the challenges.
Highlights
Revenue Growth and EBITDA Increase
Fourth quarter revenue increased by 2% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA reaching over $73 million, up from $72 million the previous year and $68 million in Q3.
Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Position
The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a robust cash position despite significant repayments, including a $50 million terminal expansion project installment.
Successful Bond Issuance
Issued $100 million of unsecured bonds at 7.25%, marking the tightest spread for a dollar-denominated shipping bond in the Nordic market since 2008.
High Vessel Utilization
Achieved over 92% vessel utilization in Q4, higher than both Q3 and the same period the previous year.
Ethylene Terminal Expansion Completed
The expansion was completed on time and on budget, increasing the terminal's capacity significantly.
Capital Return to Shareholders
Continued capital return with a $0.05 fixed dividend and share buyback totaling 25% of net income.
Additional Vessel Acquisitions
Acquired three handysize ethylene carriers for $83.9 million, expanding the fleet to support terminal operations.
Lowlights
Softer Ethylene Transport Demand
The market was temporarily hit by softer ethylene transport demand, affecting performance.
Challenges in Ethylene Throughput
Despite an increase from Q3, throughput at the joint venture Ethylene export terminal was lower than Q4 2023 and below capacity due to US cracker turnarounds.
Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Forecasting
Geopolitical tensions reduce the ability to do long-term forecasting.
Depressed Ethylene Arbitrage
The ethylene arbitrage remains tight due to higher domestic prices, affecting export activity.
Company Guidance
During the Navigator Holdings conference call for the Fourth Quarter 2024, the company provided detailed guidance on various metrics. The company reported an increase in revenues by 2% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA of $73.4 million for the quarter, surpassing the previous year's $72 million and the third quarter's $68 million. The balance sheet remained strong, despite a $50 million payment for terminal expansion and other debt repayments. The company issued $100 million in new unsecured bonds at 7.25% and maintained average TCE rates at $28,341 per day with utilization above 92%. Ethylene export terminal throughput was 159,000 tons, impacted by US cracker turnarounds, but the terminal expansion was completed on time and budget. The company also acquired three handysize ethylene carriers for $83.9 million and exercised options for two new mid-size ethylene carriers. Looking ahead, Navigator Holdings expects high vessel utilization and robust TCE rates in Q1 2025 and plans to continue its capital return through dividends and share buybacks.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.