Kodiak Sciences (KOD) AI Stock Analysis

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Kodiak Sciences

(NASDAQ:KOD)

32Underperform

Kodiak Sciences faces significant challenges typical of pre-revenue biotech firms, including substantial financial losses and negative cash flow. While the company maintains some cash reserves, its high cash burn and negative equity pose significant risks. The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and the current valuation reflects the speculative nature of the stock. Without recent earnings call data, the analysis focuses on existing financial and market data, painting a cautious outlook for potential investors.

Positive Factors

Investor Interest

Investors are starting to come back to Kodiak Sciences, viewing the stock as very cheap with lots of room to grow.

Potential Approval

There is an expectation for potential approval across wet AMD, retinal vein occlusion, and diabetic retinopathy indications.

Strategic Positioning

The company has taken appropriate strategic steps to position the ABCD platform for its best shots on goal.

Negative Factors

Adverse Events

Investors are reminded of the prior late-stage failures for tarcocimab in the Phase 3 GLEAM and GLIMMER trials in DME, unexpected increase in cataract AEs over time for tarcocimab, and the Phase 2b/3 DAZZLE trial failure in wet AMD.

Past Trial Failures

Kodiak continues to turn the page from its previous late-stage tarcocimab setbacks, including the Phase 3 GLEAM and GLIMMER trial failures in DME and the Phase 2b/3 DAZZLE trial failure in wet AMD.

Kodiak Sciences (KOD) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$114.99M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)383.20K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)3.15

Revenue GrowthN/A

EPS Growth32.58%

CountryUS

Employees109

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength70

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-3.35

Shares Outstanding52,748,344

10 Day Avg. Volume471,037

30 Day Avg. Volume383,203

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-2.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$9.00

Price Target Upside312.84% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering3

Kodiak Sciences Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKodiak Sciences Inc. (KOD) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of therapies for the treatment of retinal diseases. The company is headquartered in Palo Alto, California, and operates within the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors. Its core product candidate is KSI-301, an investigational therapy designed to improve outcomes for patients with retinal vascular diseases such as wet age-related macular degeneration and diabetic eye diseases.

How the Company Makes MoneyKodiak Sciences primarily makes money through the development and commercialization of its drug candidates. Although the company is in the clinical stage and does not yet generate revenue from product sales, its revenue model is anticipated to include the sale of approved therapies and potential partnerships or licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, Kodiak Sciences may seek funding through collaborations or strategic alliances, which could provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on the sales of products developed through these partnerships. However, as of now, the company is focused on advancing its clinical trials and gaining regulatory approval for its lead product candidates.

Kodiak Sciences Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kodiak Sciences is in a typical early-stage biotech financial position, with no revenue and substantial losses. While the company's cash reserves provide some buffer, ongoing high cash burn and negative equity pose significant financial risks. Future viability hinges on successful product development and subsequent revenue generation.

Income Statement

Very Negative

Kodiak Sciences has consistently reported zero revenue over the past years, reflecting its pre-revenue stage typical in biotechnology. The company shows increasing net losses and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating significant operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet shows a declining stockholders' equity, primarily due to continuous losses. However, it maintains a substantial cash position relative to its total liabilities, indicating some level of financial resilience despite negative equity in past years. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity.

Cash Flow

Negative

Kodiak Sciences exhibits negative operating and free cash flows, reflecting its high cash burn typical of R&D-intensive firms. Despite occasional positive investing cash flows from asset dispositions, reliance on financing activities remains critical for sustaining operations.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Gross Profit
-19.99M	0.00	-25.95M	-11.00M	-8.71M	-4.21M
	EBIT
-204.04M	-186.85M	-277.32M	-341.38M	-267.05M	-136.01M
	EBITDA
-164.93M	-186.85M	-259.02M	-322.80M	-258.26M	-128.86M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-191.62M	-176.21M	-260.49M	-333.82M	-266.99M	-133.10M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
9.62M	168.07M	285.51M	478.93M	731.51M	968.97M
	Total Assets
0.00	335.58M	479.37M	666.63M	904.22M	1.07B
	Total Debt
0.00	70.34M	81.63M	87.73M	80.00M	77.40M
	Net Debt
9.62M	-97.73M	-203.88M	-102.70M	-651.51M	-866.99M
	Total Liabilities
0.00	185.29M	213.59M	230.46M	240.90M	206.60M
	Stockholders Equity
8.93M	150.29M	265.78M	436.17M	-558.22M	-291.23M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-147.22M	0.00	-195.61M	-253.82M	-245.57M	-90.43M
	Operating Cash Flow
-119.49M	0.00	-154.18M	-206.46M	-182.27M	-83.43M
	Investing Cash Flow
-28.43M	-755.00K	249.23M	-336.51M	-38.80M	104.83M
	Financing Cash Flow
-27.00K	501.00K	31.00K	1.90K	8.18K	717.38M

Kodiak Sciences Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price2.18

Price Trends

50DMA

3.87

Negative

100DMA

5.94

Negative

200DMA

4.46

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.54

Negative

RSI

30.68

Neutral

STOCH

26.07

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KOD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.79, below the 50-day MA of 3.87, and below the 200-day MA of 4.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KOD.

Kodiak Sciences Risk Analysis

Kodiak Sciences disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kodiak Sciences reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Kodiak Sciences Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (48)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	48 Neutral	$6.36B	1.19	-46.31%	2.67%	19.41%	1.23%
ADCT	41 Neutral	$121.00M	―	123.38%	―	1.84%	43.40%
NMRA	39 Underperform	$110.44M	―	-64.48%	―	―	-0.42%
ALDX	34 Underperform	$114.04M	―	-58.54%	―	―	-47.28%
KOD	32 Underperform	$114.99M	―	-84.70%	―	―	32.58%
FDMT	27 Underperform	$121.78M	―	-25.95%	―	―	―

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

KOD

Kodiak Sciences

2.18

-1.69

-43.67%

ALDX

Aldeyra Therapeutics

1.91

-2.25

-54.09%

ADCT

ADC Therapeutics

1.22

-3.15

-72.08%

FDMT

4D Molecular Therapeutics

2.63

-23.62

-89.98%

NMRA

Neumora Therapeutics, Inc.

0.68

-10.51

-93.92%

Kodiak Sciences Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 27, 2025 | % Change Since: -28.76% | Next Earnings Date: May 19, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted Kodiak Sciences' strong pipeline and positive Phase III outcomes, along with a good financial position. However, there are uncertainties regarding the DAYBREAK study and potential risks if the study does not succeed. Overall, the sentiment leans positive due to the outweighing highlights.

Highlights

Strong Pipeline and Diversification

Kodiak Sciences has a portfolio of three clinical programs, two of which are derived from the ABC Platform with focus on durability, and one is platform-independent. This diversification offers both opportunity and risk mitigation.

Positive Phase III Outcomes

Three positive Phase III studies completed for tarcocimab in diabetic retinopathy, retinal vein occlusion, and wet AMD. These studies have shown favorable safety and a strong six-month durability signal.

Regulatory Alignment Achieved

The FDA has agreed on a bridging strategy for the go-to-market formulation of tarcocimab, which is a significant regulatory milestone.

Cash Position

Kodiak is in an attractive cash position as of Q4, providing a runway into 2026 to support their clinical programs and planned pivotal studies.

Lowlights

Uncertainty in Phase III DAYBREAK Study Design

There is ongoing discussion with the FDA regarding the final design of the DAYBREAK study, which introduces uncertainty in timelines and outcomes.

Risk of Failure in DAYBREAK Study

The tarcocimab arm in the DAYBREAK study is a gamble that could result in regulatory and market setbacks if unsuccessful.

Company Guidance

During the Q4 2023 earnings call for Kodiak Sciences (symbol: KOD) held on March 28, 2024, extensive guidance was provided on the company's strategic direction and clinical program updates. The call highlighted Kodiak's focus on advancing three clinical programs, including two derived from the ABC Platform and one platform-independent. Key metrics discussed included the company's strong cash position as of Q4, the completion of three positive Phase III studies for tarcocimab in diabetic retinopathy, retinal vein occlusion, and wet AMD, and the regulatory alignment achieved for a bridging strategy to the go-to-market formulation. Furthermore, the company outlined plans for additional studies, such as the actively recruiting GLOW2 study in diabetic retinopathy and the inclusion of tarcocimab in the DAYBREAK study to validate its durability in wet AMD. Kodiak aims to progress rapidly into pivotal studies for KSI-501 and KSI-101, with a goal to have four pivotal studies ongoing later in the year. The comprehensive discussion underscored Kodiak's commitment to achieving significant value inflection points within its cash runway extending into 2026.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.