Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $126.58M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.41M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.34
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -47.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.94
• Shares Outstanding: 59,708,652
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,705,851
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,413,989
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -8.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $9.67
• Price Target Upside: 356.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

Aldeyra Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges with no current revenue and ongoing losses. The negative trend in technical analysis and high regulatory risk from the FDA's response letter further weigh down the stock's outlook. Despite its strong cash reserves, the company's sustainability depends heavily on successful product development and overcoming regulatory hurdles.

Positive Factors

Financial Position

The company has approximately $101M in cash and expects the remaining costs for the ongoing trials to be only around $6M, which keeps the company in a favorable financial position.

Partnership Opportunity

FDA approval would likely lead AbbVie to exercise the option to co-commercialize reproxalap, triggering a $100M milestone payment to Aldeyra.

Pipeline Potential

Broader RASP pipeline offers catalysts and programs not in the spotlight, with potential applications beyond ocular inflammatory diseases to systemic immune-mediated and metabolic diseases.

Negative Factors

Approval Uncertainty

The probability of success for Reproxalap has been decreased from 85% to 75%, reflecting increased uncertainty in the approval process.

Manufacturing Risk

There is a 15% probability of a manufacturing-related Complete Response Letter, which could jeopardize the option.

Regulatory Delay

The FDA has delayed the approval of Reproxalap due to concerns over trial results, which has pushed the expected drug launch out by a year.

Aldeyra Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc., a biotechnology company, develops and commercializes medicines for immune-mediated ocular and systemic diseases. The company's lead product candidate is reproxalap, a reactive aldehyde species (RASP)modulator, which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of dry eye diseases and allergic conjunctivitis. It also develops ADX-629, a first-in-class orally administered RASP modulator that is Phase II clinical trial for psoriasis, asthma, and COVID-19; and ADX-2191, a dihydrofolate reductase inhibitor which is in phase 3 for the prevention of proliferative vitreoretinopathy, and phase II clinical trial for the treatment of retinitis pigmentosa, as well as for treating primary vitreoretinal lymphoma. The company has a license agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for developing ADX-1612, which inhibits the protein chaperome for the treatment of inflammatory diseases. The company was formerly known as Aldexa Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. in March 2014. Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Lexington, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Aldeyra Therapeutics primarily makes money through the development and commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. Its revenue model is based on the successful progression of its drug candidates through clinical trials, regulatory approval, and eventual sales in the healthcare market. The company may also enter into licensing agreements and partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies to enhance development and distribution capabilities, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties. Additionally, Aldeyra might receive funding through grants, collaborations, or equity investments to support its ongoing research and development activities.

Aldeyra Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aldeyra Therapeutics operates in the high-risk, high-reward biotechnology industry, focusing on developing treatments without current product revenue. The significant cash reserves provide a buffer, but the lack of revenue and continuous losses represent substantial risks. Long-term sustainability depends on successful product development and commercialization.

Income Statement

Aldeyra Therapeutics has consistently reported zero revenue over recent years, indicating no commercialized products. The company shows significant negative EBIT and net income, reflecting high R&D and operational costs typical for a biotech firm in its developmental phase. The absence of revenue and persistent losses highlight a challenging financial situation with potential risks related to sustainability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a strong liquidity position with substantial cash reserves compared to debt, resulting in negative net debt. The company maintains a relatively healthy equity ratio, indicating moderate financial leverage. However, continuous losses impact shareholder equity negatively over time, which could be a concern if no revenue streams are established.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals ongoing negative operating and free cash flows, typical for early-stage biotech companies focusing on R&D. The negative free cash flow growth rate and reliance on financing activities suggest the company is burning cash without generating operational income, posing a risk if external funding sources dry up.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Gross Profit
0.00	-262.78K	-258.71K	-264.18K	-56.22K
	EBIT
-60.12T	-42.79M	-62.68M	-56.22M	-36.42M
	EBITDA
-60.12T	-35.21M	-60.07M	-55.77M	-36.07M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-55.85T	-37.54M	-61.37M	-59.25M	-37.55M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
10.00T>	142.82M	174.30M	229.79M	77.86M
	Total Assets
10.00T>	148.33M	181.29M	233.14M	83.35M
	Total Debt
15.30M	15.66M	16.08M	15.86M	15.33M
	Net Debt
-39.22M	-127.17M	-128.34M	-213.93M	-62.53M
	Total Liabilities
33.60T	28.53M	30.28M	27.40M	23.84M
	Stockholders Equity
71.00T	119.80M	151.01M	205.74M	59.51M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-43.21T	-30.33M	-56.65M	-42.56M	-37.49M
	Operating Cash Flow
-43.21T	-30.33M	-56.64M	-42.56M	-37.49M
	Investing Cash Flow
-44.92T	30.00M	-29.95M	-7.81K	29.02M
	Financing Cash Flow
-171.42B	-1.27M	1.22M	194.50M	41.90M

Aldeyra Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.12
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALDX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.53, below the 50-day MA of 5.58, and below the 200-day MA of 5.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.32 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.90 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALDX.

Aldeyra Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	48 Neutral	$6.46B	1.17	-48.25%	2.67%	19.50%	0.61%
NKTR	45 Neutral	$114.96M	―	-124.10%	―	9.22%	60.01%
NKTX	43 Neutral	$111.76M	―	-31.94%	―	―	30.76%
RAPT	37 Underperform	$122.24M	―	-77.09%	―	―	-2.29%
ALDX	34 Underperform	$126.58M	―	-58.54%	―	―	-47.28%
KOD	32 Underperform	$114.99M	―	-84.70%	―	―	32.58%
LRMR	30 Underperform	$115.89M	―	-63.58%	―	―	-55.32%

Aldeyra Therapeutics Corporate Events

Aldeyra Therapeutics Receives FDA Complete Response Letter

On April 3, 2025, Aldeyra Therapeutics announced receiving a Complete Response Letter from the FDA regarding its resubmitted New Drug Application for reproxalap, intended for treating dry eye disease. The FDA highlighted the need for additional well-controlled studies due to concerns about the efficacy data and methodological issues in previous trials. Aldeyra plans to address these issues with ongoing trials and aims to resubmit the NDA by mid-2025, although this may require more resources and delay the drug’s approval and commercialization, impacting the company’s financial condition and market strategy.