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Consumer Portfolio Services (CPSS)
NASDAQ:CPSS

Consumer Portfolio Services (CPSS) AI Stock Analysis

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Consumer Portfolio Services

(NASDAQ:CPSS)

58Neutral
Consumer Portfolio Services demonstrates solid financial stability and strong revenue growth. However, challenges such as fluctuating profitability, reliance on debt, negative technical indicators, and mixed earnings call sentiment weigh on the stock's overall performance. The reasonable valuation provides some support, but operational inefficiencies and increased financial risks necessitate caution.

Consumer Portfolio Services (CPSS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Consumer Portfolio Services Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionConsumer Portfolio Services, Inc. (CPS) is a specialty finance company operating within the consumer finance sector. The company specializes in purchasing and servicing retail automobile contracts originated by franchised automobile dealers and select independent dealers in the United States. CPS primarily caters to individuals with limited credit histories, low incomes, or past credit challenges, providing an essential service for consumers seeking to finance vehicle purchases.
How the Company Makes MoneyConsumer Portfolio Services generates revenue primarily through the acquisition and servicing of automobile loans. The company purchases loans from dealers at a discount, which allows them to earn interest income by charging interest rates on these loans that are higher than the rate at which they purchase them. Additionally, CPS earns servicing fees by managing the collection of payments and handling customer service for the loans they own or service. The company also benefits from securitization transactions, where pools of loans are sold to investors, thus providing liquidity and an additional revenue stream. Key factors contributing to CPS's earnings include the interest rate environment, credit performance of the loan portfolio, and the ability to maintain strong relationships with automobile dealers and financial markets.

Consumer Portfolio Services Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Consumer Portfolio Services exhibits commendable financial stability with strong operating cash flows and improved revenue figures. However, there are risks associated with fluctuating profitability margins and reliance on debt financing to support asset growth.
Income Statement
68
Positive
The company has shown a mixed performance in terms of revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024, yet experiencing fluctuations in previous years. The gross profit margin remains strong, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has been volatile, showing a recent decrease due to rising expenses or other factors impacting net income. EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, reflecting steady operational efficiency but with room for improvement.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity base with a low debt-to-equity ratio, especially in 2024, which indicates reduced financial leverage and lower risk. However, the equity ratio has been modest, suggesting that a significant portion of assets is financed by debt. Return on equity has shown variability, highlighting challenges in achieving consistent profitability relative to equity.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
The cash flow statement demonstrates robust operating cash flow generation, supporting strong free cash flow figures. There is a positive trajectory in free cash flow growth, indicating efficient cash management and capacity to fund operations without reliance on external financing. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is solid, suggesting effective conversion of earnings into cash.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
393.51M214.60M242.19M192.57M169.82M
Gross Profit
387.90M208.23M234.65M184.86M162.40M
EBIT
27.43M61.10M1.62B65.75M20.12M
EBITDA
0.000.000.000.000.00
Net Income Common Stockholders
19.20M45.34M85.98M47.52M21.68M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
11.71M6.17M13.49M29.93M13.47M
Total Assets
3.49B2.90B2.75B2.16B2.15B
Total Debt
3.13B2.57B2.47B1.95B1.97B
Net Debt
3.12B2.56B2.46B1.92B1.96B
Total Liabilities
3.20B2.63B2.52B1.99B2.01B
Stockholders Equity
292.77M274.67M228.39M170.21M133.36M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
233.75M237.42M213.78M196.22M238.74M
Operating Cash Flow
233.75M237.98M215.93M198.19M238.77M
Investing Cash Flow
-769.71M-359.53M-713.90M-115.36M93.03M
Financing Cash Flow
547.92M84.19M484.21M-50.44M-328.48M

Consumer Portfolio Services Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price8.63
Price Trends
50DMA
9.84
Negative
100DMA
10.36
Negative
200DMA
9.93
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.41
Negative
RSI
36.27
Neutral
STOCH
28.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CPSS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.86, below the 50-day MA of 9.84, and below the 200-day MA of 9.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CPSS.

Consumer Portfolio Services Risk Analysis

Consumer Portfolio Services disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Consumer Portfolio Services reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Consumer Portfolio Services Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$155.56M16.034.91%13.93%127.09%2519.30%
OFOFS
64
Neutral
$112.95M3.9717.02%16.13%-32.33%
64
Neutral
$13.46B9.449.34%4.72%16.14%-8.80%
58
Neutral
$200.49M10.936.77%9.56%-58.56%
58
Neutral
$237.77M7.387.58%-7.86%
53
Neutral
$173.08M26.783.77%16.93%-254.03%-74.17%
MBMBI
29
Underperform
$219.11M26.69%583.33%6.59%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CPSS
Consumer Portfolio Services
8.63
-0.50
-5.48%
MBI
MBIA
4.13
-2.11
-33.81%
ONIT
Onity Group
28.55
4.97
21.08%
OXSQ
Oxford Square Capital
2.42
-0.35
-12.64%
OFS
OFS Capital
8.32
0.00
0.00%
MRCC
Monroe Capital
6.93
0.65
10.35%

Consumer Portfolio Services Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 25, 2025 | % Change Since: -14.98% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presents a mixed sentiment with notable achievements in revenue growth, portfolio balance, and strategic advancements in technology and partnerships. However, there are significant challenges in terms of decreased earnings, increased expenses, and higher delinquency and charge-off rates. While there is a positive outlook regarding future unemployment rates and growth potential, the financial downturns and operational inefficiencies present a balanced view.
Highlights
Increase in Revenues and Loan Originations
Revenues for the quarter were $105.3 million, a 14% increase from the $92 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Loan originations for the year were $1.68 billion, a 24% increase from the $1.36 billion in 2023.
Record Portfolio Balance
The company ended the year 2024 with a portfolio balance of $3.41 billion, which is a company record, up from $3.32 billion at the end of 2023.
Growth in Sales Force and Dealer Partnerships
The company hired 42 new sales reps in 2024 and increased large dealer group originations from 20% to 28%.
AI and Technology Advancements
AI-driven fraud scores saved $4.6 million in 2024, and a new AI voice bot showed success in matching human results for collections.
Positive Outlook for Unemployment Rates
Unemployment rate expected to remain favorable at 4.4%, with a nominal increase projected through 2026.
Lowlights
Decrease in Pretax Earnings and Net Income
Pretax earnings for the quarter were down 24% from $9.8 million to $7.4 million. Net income for the year decreased from $45.3 million in 2023 to $19.2 million in 2024.
Increased Expenses
Expenses for the year were $366.1 million, 26% higher than the $290.9 million in 2023.
Higher Auction Recovery Challenges
Auction recoveries remained tough at around 30%, off the historical norm of 40 to 45% due to macro issues such as inflation and higher car values.
Increased Delinquency and Charge-Off Rates
Net charge-offs for Q4 2024 were 8.02% of the average portfolio, up from 7.74% in Q4 2023. Delinquency greater than 30 days was 14.85% compared to 14.55% at the end of 2023.
Company Guidance
In the 2024 fourth quarter call, Consumer Portfolio Services reported significant financial metrics and strategic insights. The company achieved a 5% quarterly revenue increase to $105.3 million and a 14% year-over-year rise from $92 million in Q4 2023. Annual revenues grew by 12% to $393.5 million, driven by a 24% increase in loan originations, totaling $1.68 billion for the year. The fair value portfolio swelled to $3.5 billion, yielding 11.3%. Despite a 26% rise in annual expenses to $366.1 million, pre-tax earnings fell by 24% to $7.4 million for the quarter, with net income down from $7.2 million to $5.1 million. Diluted EPS dropped from $0.29 to $0.21. The company's total debt increased by 22% to $3.131 billion, while shareholders' equity rose by 7% to a record $293 million. Operational highlights included a 41% surge in Q4 originations, driven by strategic hiring and dealer expansion. The net interest margin improved to $52.8 million for the quarter, while the return on managed assets decreased to 0.9%. Credit performance saw annual net charge-offs at 8.02%, with DQ greater than 30 days at 14.85%. The company also highlighted advancements in technology, notably AI-driven fraud prevention, saving $4.6 million, and plans to enhance this with an additional fraud score in 2025. The unemployment rate remained favorable at 4.4%, supporting positive business projections for 2025.

Consumer Portfolio Services Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Consumer Portfolio Services Leads in Sub-Prime Auto Financing
Positive
Nov 8, 2024

Consumer Portfolio Services (CPS) is at the forefront of sub-prime automobile financing, offering indirect loans through licensed dealers to customers who might not qualify elsewhere. With a $3.5 billion managed portfolio and a presence in numerous states, CPS leverages advanced machine learning and AI models to assess credit risks, ensuring high-quality loans. The company boasts a seasoned leadership team and a solid track record of profitability, making it a notable player in the competitive, capital-intensive auto finance market.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.