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MBIA Inc (MBI)
NYSE:MBI
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MBIA
(NYSE:MBI)
27Underperform
MBIA (MBI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$261.48M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)472.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth583.33%
EPS Growth6.59%
CountryUS
Employees61
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength77
IndustryInsurance
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-9.36
Shares Outstanding50,971,030
10 Day Avg. Volume610,226
30 Day Avg. Volume472,673
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)7.27
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)22.40
P/FCF Ratio1.30
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.00Price Target Upside60.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
MBIA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMBIA Inc. (MBI) is a financial services company that primarily operates in the insurance and financial guarantee sectors. The company offers financial guarantee insurance, which provides credit enhancement and loss protection to issuers of various types of debt obligations, including municipal and structured finance bonds. MBIA is headquartered in the United States and serves a diverse range of clients, including municipalities, utilities, and other public finance entities.
How the Company Makes MoneyMBIA makes money primarily through premiums earned from its financial guarantee insurance products. The company collects premiums from clients in exchange for providing insurance that guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest on bonds and other securities. This insurance is particularly valuable to issuers of municipal bonds, as it enhances the credit quality of the bonds, potentially lowering borrowing costs for issuers and providing security for investors. Additionally, MBIA may earn investment income from its portfolio of invested assets, which includes the premiums collected and other funds. The company's revenue is also influenced by the overall health of the financial markets, interest rates, and the creditworthiness of its insured entities.
MBIA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
MBIA is facing severe financial difficulties across all fronts. Persistent losses and negative cash flows, coupled with an unsustainable balance sheet, highlight significant financial instability. The company must address its debt and improve operational efficiency to stabilize its financial health.Income Statement
The income statement shows a negative trajectory with declining revenue over recent years. The company has consistently negative EBIT and net income, reflecting poor profitability. The gross profit margin is misleadingly high due to negligible costs, but the net profit margin is deep in the negative, indicating significant losses.20
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is concerning, with negative stockholders' equity suggesting insolvency risk. The debt-to-equity ratio is negative due to negative equity, indicating an unsustainable capital structure. The equity ratio is also negative, highlighting that liabilities exceed assets significantly.15
Very Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow statements reflect operational struggles, with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow over several years. Although there was a slight improvement in operating cash flow from 2023 to 2024, it remains negative, indicating ongoing cash flow challenges.25
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 159.00M | 42.00M | 6.00M | 150.00M | 159.00M | 282.00M | Gross Profit |
| 136.00M | 42.00M | 6.00M | 74.00M | 62.00M | 190.00M | EBIT |
| -278.00M | -441.00M | -92.00M | -22.00M | -445.00M | -578.00M | EBITDA |
| -114.00M | -441.00M | 0.00 | 32.00M | 0.00 | 0.00 | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -326.00M | -444.00M | -491.00M | -149.00M | -445.00M | -578.00M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 1.50B | 1.01B | 107.00M | 2.23B | 2.69B | 2.71B | Total Assets |
| 2.17B | 2.17B | 2.61B | 3.38B | 4.70B | 5.75B | Total Debt |
| 3.22B | 2.74B | 3.16B | 3.10B | 3.21B | 3.56B | Net Debt |
| 3.14B | 2.66B | 3.06B | 3.04B | 3.05B | 3.40B | Total Liabilities |
| 4.24B | 4.24B | 4.25B | 4.25B | 3.21B | 3.56B | Stockholders Equity |
| -2.09B | -2.09B | -1.66B | -882.00M | -313.00M | 136.00M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 197.00M | -176.00M | -195.00M | -418.00M | 510.00M | -390.00M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 198.00M | -176.00M | -195.00M | -418.00M | 511.00M | -390.00M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 37.00M | 287.00M | 767.00M | 623.00M | -61.00M | 1.74B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -374.00M | -132.00M | -542.00M | -285.00M | -457.00M | -1.26B |
MBIA Technical Analysis
Negative
5.00
Price Trends
6.44
Negative
5.92
Negative
5.18
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.42
Positive
26.54
Positive
7.39
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MBI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.42, below the 50-day MA of 6.44, and below the 200-day MA of 5.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.54 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MBI.
MBIA Risk Analysis
MBIA disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MBIA reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MBIA Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $4.64B | 8.18 | 13.40% | 3.10% | 3.79% | 3.86% | |
75 Outperform | $2.70B | 7.78 | 17.38% | ― | 12.43% | 15.32% | |
70 Outperform | $5.64B | 8.23 | 14.75% | 2.12% | 4.52% | 15.94% | |
67 Neutral | $4.15B | 12.18 | 6.71% | 1.45% | -4.43% | -45.42% | |
64 Neutral | $13.80B | 10.64 | 9.23% | 4.22% | 17.66% | -7.66% | |
59 Neutral | $1.12B | 13.36 | 6.35% | 12.87% | 26.34% | 79.07% | |
27 Underperform | $261.48M | ― | 26.69% | ― | 583.33% | 6.59% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MBI
MBIA
5.00
-1.68
-25.15%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
83.01
-6.51
-7.27%
MFA
MFA Financial
10.67
0.63
6.27%
MTG
MGIC Investment
22.81
2.33
11.38%
RDN
Radian Group
31.07
0.38
1.24%
NMIH
NMI Holdings
34.46
4.33
14.37%
MBIA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 27, 2025 | % Change Since: -28.77% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects mixed results with improvements in net losses and reduced investment losses. However, significant challenges remain, particularly with the unresolved PREPA debt and higher loss in LAE, leading to a decrease in book value and claims paying resources.Highlights
Lower Net Losses in 2024
MBIA Inc. reported a consolidated GAAP net loss of $447 million for full year 2024, a reduction from $491 million in 2023, primarily due to reduced investment losses and lower operating expenses.
Decreased Gross Par Amount
National's insured portfolio's gross par amount reduced by approximately $3.1 billion from year-end 2023 to about $25 billion at the end of 2024.
Statutory Net Loss Improvements
National's statutory net loss improved to $133 million in 2024 from $142 million in 2023, driven by lower net realized investment losses.
Lowlights
Uncertainty in PREPA Resolution
The process of resolving National's PREPA exposure remains uncertain, with a bankruptcy claim exceeding $800 million.
Higher Loss in LAE
Adjusted net loss increased to $184 million in 2024 from $169 million in 2023, primarily due to higher loss and loss adjustment expenses (LAE) and lower net investment income.
Decrease in Book Value
MBIA Inc.'s book value per share decreased by $8.43 to a negative $40.99 per share as of December 31, 2024.
Lower Claims Paying Resources
Claims paying resources for National decreased by $174 million to $1.5 billion from the previous year.
Company Guidance
During the MBIA Inc. fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results conference call, several critical metrics and financial details were discussed. MBIA reported a consolidated GAAP net loss of $51 million or a negative $1.07 per share for Q4 2024, compared to a loss of $138 million or a negative $2.94 per share in Q4 2023. The company's adjusted net loss, a non-GAAP measure, was $22 million or a negative $0.48 per share for Q4 2024 versus an adjusted net loss of $8 million or a negative $0.16 per share for Q4 2023. For the full year 2024, the GAAP net loss was $447 million or a negative $9.43 per share, improved from a $491 million loss or negative $10.18 per share in 2023. The book value per share decreased to a negative $40.99 by the end of 2024, from a negative $32.56 at the end of 2023. National's insured portfolio's gross par outstanding fell by approximately $3.1 billion to about $25 billion at the end of 2024, with a leverage ratio of gross par to statutory capital at 28:1. National reported a statutory net loss of $10 million for Q4 2024 and $133 million for the full year, while MBIA Insurance Corp. experienced a statutory net loss of $64 million for 2024. Claims paying resources for National were $1.5 billion at year-end, down from $1.674 billion at the end of 2023. The company emphasized the ongoing uncertainty and strategic focus around resolving National's PREPA exposure, which remains a critical element for future corporate strategies, including the potential sale of the company.MBIA Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
MBIA to Update Financial Statements for Q4 2024
Neutral
Feb 27, 2025
MBIA announced that on February 27, 2025, it will update its website with the Quarterly Operating Supplement and Quarterly and Annual Statements for the fourth quarter of 2024. These updates will include detailed information about MBIA Insurance Corporation and National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation. Additionally, MBIA will provide insights into its insured portfolios as of December 31, 2024, with further updates to its Frequently Asked Questions section expected on or around February 28, 2025.
Executive/Board Changes
MBIA Approves $10M Retention Awards for Executives
Neutral
Feb 13, 2025
On February 11, 2025, MBIA Inc.’s Board of Directors approved special cash retention awards totaling $10,175,000 for four executive officers under its Omnibus Incentive Plan. These awards aim to retain the executives crucial for managing the company’s runoff portfolios and ensuring shareholder value through 2028. The vesting of these awards is contingent upon continued employment until 2028, with conditions for early vesting in case of a qualifying termination.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.