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Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL)
NASDAQ:AVDL
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Avadel Pharmaceuticals
(NASDAQ:AVDL)
46Neutral
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Avadel's 4Q24 top line met estimates, as expected, and management's initiatives should ultimately drive revenue growth.
Investor Sentiment
Avadel Pharmaceuticals' stock is considered to reflect far too pessimistic investor sentiment and wildly undervalues the opportunity of LUMRYZ in narcolepsy.
Sales Efforts
Management is seeing early positive indicators from the expanded sales force efforts to bring more patients into the funnel.
Negative Factors
Investor Skepticism
Investors remain skeptical of the key metrics for the number of Lumryz patients and sales projections by the end of 2025.
Patient Discontinuation
Discontinuation rates stood at 39% for switch patients and 62% for the new-to-oxybate and previously treated patient mix as of Q4 2024.
Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$774.00M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth504.79%
EPS Growth74.24%
CountryUS
Employees188
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength71
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.52
Shares Outstanding96,629,430
10 Day Avg. Volume731,131
30 Day Avg. Volume1,121,266
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)4.90
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)26.30
P/FCF Ratio19.50
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.13Price Target Upside113.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAvadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL) is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing innovative medications for unmet medical needs, particularly in the sleep medicine sector. The company's core product is LUMRYZ, a formulation designed to treat excessive daytime sleepiness in patients with narcolepsy. Avadel leverages its expertise in drug delivery technology to enhance the efficacy and safety of its therapeutic offerings.
How the Company Makes MoneyAvadel Pharmaceuticals generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its proprietary pharmaceutical products. The company's key revenue stream is derived from the sales of LUMRYZ, its flagship product targeting narcolepsy. Avadel may also engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance its commercial reach and expand its product pipeline. Licensing agreements and milestone payments from such partnerships can contribute to its revenue. Additionally, the company's focus on specialty pharmaceuticals allows it to target niche markets with limited competition, potentially leading to premium pricing for its innovative treatments.
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Avadel Pharmaceuticals has shown revenue growth, but profitability and cash flow management remain challenging. Negative EBIT, net profit margin, and operating cash flows indicate ongoing financial pressure. The balance sheet is moderately leveraged, providing some stability, but overall financial health is under pressure due to ongoing losses.Income Statement
Avadel Pharmaceuticals has shown a significant improvement in revenue, with a substantial increase from the previous year. However, the company remains unprofitable, with negative EBIT and a net profit margin indicating ongoing operational challenges. The gross profit margin is healthy, but the negative EBITDA margin suggests struggles in managing operational costs efficiently.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting some leverage but not excessively so. Return on Equity is negative due to ongoing losses, indicating that the company is not generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is reasonable, but the negative net income affects overall equity valuation.38
Negative
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement highlights negative operating cash flows, indicating that the company is not generating cash from its core operations. Positive investing cash flows suggest potential asset sales or reductions in capital expenditure. The free cash flow remains negative, reflecting ongoing cash burn, but the improvement in operating cash flow to net income ratio shows some operational efficiency gains.42
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 169.12M | 27.96M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 22.33M | Gross Profit |
| 153.84M | 27.12M | -1.49M | -815.00K | 16.59M | EBIT |
| -42.40M | -137.85M | -98.56M | -85.55M | -36.66M | EBITDA |
| -42.40M | -149.13M | -97.60M | -84.78M | -34.97M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -48.83M | -160.28M | -137.46M | -77.33M | 7.03M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 73.78M | 105.11M | 96.50M | 157.22M | 221.40M | Total Assets |
| 164.24M | 164.70M | 132.78M | 247.26M | 311.64M | Total Debt |
| 1.70M | 35.38M | 131.02M | 145.00M | 130.52M | Net Debt |
| -49.67M | 4.22M | 57.04M | 94.30M | 58.80M | Total Liabilities |
| 90.39M | 76.96M | 153.93M | 169.02M | 149.37M | Stockholders Equity |
| 73.85M | 87.74M | -21.14M | 78.24M | 162.27M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -46.91M | -128.51M | -71.02M | -77.34M | -48.83M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -46.91M | -128.51M | -70.30M | -77.31M | -48.73M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 51.78M | -50.09M | 79.70M | 56.93M | -69.72M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 15.97M | 135.34M | 14.54M | 263.00K | 179.68M |
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Negative
8.01
Price Trends
8.17
Negative
9.68
Negative
12.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.01
Positive
43.64
Neutral
15.62
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVDL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.18, below the 50-day MA of 8.17, and below the 200-day MA of 12.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVDL.
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis
Avadel Pharmaceuticals disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avadel Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $7.47B | 14.13 | 14.31% | ― | 6.12% | 38.88% | |
68 Neutral | $11.28B | 34.38 | 14.16% | ― | 24.81% | 33.67% | |
64 Neutral | $1.80B | 24.49 | 7.55% | ― | 8.94% | 5171.26% | |
58 Neutral | $344.26M | ― | 40.36% | ― | 13.57% | 89.73% | |
49 Neutral | $6.85B | 0.81 | -52.91% | 2.50% | 19.94% | 1.20% | |
46 Neutral | $774.00M | ― | -60.44% | ― | 504.79% | 74.24% | |
43 Neutral | $2.62B | ― | -27.85% | ― | ― | -10.19% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AVDL
Avadel Pharmaceuticals
8.01
-8.65
-51.92%
JAZZ
Jazz Pharmaceuticals
122.92
3.94
3.31%
NBIX
Neurocrine
113.16
-28.22
-19.96%
SUPN
Supernus Pharmaceuticals
32.29
-1.23
-3.67%
HRTX
Heron Therapeutics
2.26
-0.45
-16.61%
XENE
Xenon
34.26
-7.88
-18.70%
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 3, 2025 | % Change Since: 1.26% | Next Earnings Date: May 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reflects optimism around LUMRYZ's market performance and Avadel's strategic investments to drive growth. Despite legal uncertainties and challenges with patient switches and Q1 financial dynamics, the overall sentiment is positive, driven by strong uptake metrics and financial guidance.Highlights
Strong LUMRYZ Uptake
LUMRYZ added over 2,500 net patients, capturing nearly 75% of reported total net patients added in the market since its launch, reflecting strong clinical value and demand.
Positive Financial Performance
Avadel reported net revenue of $50.4 million for Q4 2024, with a gross profit of $45.6 million, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive adjusted operating income.
Increased Commercial Investments
Strategic investments in expanding customer-facing teams and enhancing commercial leadership, including hiring industry veterans, are expected to accelerate LUMRYZ's growth.
Encouraging Patient Trends and Revenue Guidance
Early 2025 trends point to favorable patient demand metrics, with revenue projected to increase nearly 50% over 2024, and cash flow expected to be positive in the range of $20 million to $40 million.
Advancements in Life Cycle Management
Enrollment in the Phase III REVITALYZ trial for idiopathic hypersomnia is progressing on track, with potential NDA filing expected post-topline data in early 2026.
Lowlights
Legal Uncertainties and Royalty Adjustments
Pending resolution of legal matters, including a potential 3.5% royalty on LUMRYZ sales, creates financial uncertainties.
Gross-to-Net Challenges in Q1
High gross-to-net adjustments due to patient insurance deductible resets in Q1 may impact revenue visibility.
Switch Patient Dynamics
Declining switch patient trend noted at the end of 2024, with efforts underway to stabilize and reverse this trend.
Company Guidance
In the recent conference call, Avadel Pharmaceuticals reiterated its guidance for 2025, projecting revenue between $240 million and $260 million, reflecting a near 50% increase over 2024. The company anticipates a 40% rise in patients on therapy and expects cash operating expenses to range from $180 million to $200 million. Avadel has increased its commercial investment, doubling the size of its field support and nursing teams, while expanding its sales force by 15% to enhance engagement with prescribers and patients. Early 2025 trends are tracking at or above internal expectations, with significant growth expected as newly added patients impact revenues in the second quarter and beyond. The company also achieved positive cash flow in Q4 2024, ending the year with $74 million in cash and marketable securities, positioning itself for sustained positive cash flow in 2025.Avadel Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events
Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Projects Robust Growth for LUMRYZ
Positive
Jan 8, 2025
Avadel Pharmaceuticals reported a substantial increase in LUMRYZ sales, with a preliminary net revenue of $50 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, a 150% increase from the previous year. The company aims to expand and accelerate LUMRYZ’s market reach in 2025 by increasing commercial investments, refining their strategy, and boosting their sales and reimbursement teams. This strategy is expected to drive significant growth, targeting revenue between $240 million and $260 million, and increasing the patient base significantly by the end of 2025.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.