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Ameren (AEE)
NYSE:AEE
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Ameren
(NYSE:AEE)72Outperform
Positive Factors
Capital Expenditure
Ameren Corporation's new five-year capital expenditure plan for 2025-29 is set at $26.3 billion, which is a 20% increase from the previous plan, indicating a strong commitment to growth and investment.
Market Confidence
The analyst recommendation remains 'Outperform' with a raised price target to $105, reflecting increased market confidence in Ameren's strategic plans and future performance.
Negative Factors
Risk-Reward Balance
Shares of AEE have been one of the best performers since the middle of 2024, re-rating nearly ~17%. This significant outperformance may negatively skew the risk-reward into the call.
Ameren (AEE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$27.41B
Dividend Yield2.58%
Average Volume (3M)1.85M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.0
Beta (1Y)0.25
Revenue Growth1.64%
EPS Growth1.04%
CountryUS
Employees9,372
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength79
IndustryRegulated Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.42
Shares Outstanding269,906,250
10 Day Avg. Volume2,123,662
30 Day Avg. Volume1,845,158
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio22.14
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)3.60
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)8.40
P/FCF Ratio6.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$102.56Price Target Upside2.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
Ameren Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAmeren Corp. operates as a public utility holding company that provides electric and natural gas services. It operates through the following business segments: Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Transmission. The Ameren Missouri segment includes all of the operations of Ameren Missouri. The Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution segment consists of the electric distribution business of Ameren Illinois. The Ameren Illinois Natural Gas segment consists of the natural gas business of Ameren Illinois. The Ameren Transmission segment primarily consists of the aggregated electric transmission businesses of Ameren Illinois and ATXI. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in St. Louis, MO.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmeren makes money primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Its revenue model is built on regulated utility operations, which ensures a stable and predictable income stream due to state-regulated rates that allow for the recovery of costs and a return on investment. A significant portion of its earnings comes from electric operations, including the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. Additionally, Ameren earns revenue from its natural gas distribution services. The company's financial performance is influenced by regulatory decisions, fuel costs, weather conditions, and economic factors affecting energy demand. Ameren's strategic investments in infrastructure and renewable energy projects also contribute to its revenue by enhancing service reliability and meeting sustainability goals.
Ameren Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ameren shows promising revenue growth and improved debt management with a significant decrease in leverage. However, challenges arise from negative free cash flow, indicating high capital expenditures that could limit liquidity.Income Statement
Ameren has shown consistent revenue growth, with a moderate increase from $7.5 billion in 2023 to $7.623 billion in 2024. The net profit margin improved slightly from 15.36% to 15.50%, indicating stable profitability. However, the gross profit margin is not calculable due to missing cost data. The EBIT margin decreased marginally, suggesting slight pressure on operational efficiency.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
Ameren's debt-to-equity ratio has significantly improved, reflecting a decrease in leverage from 1.45 in 2023 to 0.04 in 2024. The equity ratio improved to 38.34%, indicating a stable financial position. However, the total assets have decreased, which could pose a long-term risk if not managed.68
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow has increased, signaling strong cash generation capability. However, free cash flow remains negative, reflecting high capital expenditures, which could limit financial flexibility. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, underscoring liquidity constraints.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 7.62B | 7.50B | 7.96B | 6.39B | 5.79B | Gross Profit |
| 7.62B | 3.47B | 3.34B | 2.99B | 2.86B | EBIT |
| 1.52B | 1.56B | 1.51B | 1.33B | 1.30B | EBITDA |
| 3.52B | 3.40B | 3.18B | 2.81B | 2.53B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 1.18B | 1.15B | 1.07B | 990.00M | 871.00M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 7.00M | 25.00M | 250.00M | 8.00M | 139.00M | Total Assets |
| 19.23B | 40.83B | 37.90B | 35.73B | 32.03B | Total Debt |
| 300.00M | 16.51B | 15.10B | 13.61B | 11.58B | Net Debt |
| 300.00M | 16.48B | 15.09B | 13.60B | 11.44B | Total Liabilities |
| 11.86B | 29.35B | 27.27B | 25.91B | 22.95B | Stockholders Equity |
| 7.37B | 11.35B | 10.51B | 9.70B | 8.94B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -1.56B | -1.21B | -1.12B | -1.86B | -1.57B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 2.76B | 2.56B | 2.26B | 1.66B | 1.73B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -4.46B | -3.80B | -3.37B | -3.53B | -3.33B | Financing Cash Flow |
| 1.75B | 1.29B | 1.17B | 1.72B | 1.73B |
Ameren Technical Analysis
Positive
100.00
Price Trends
94.06
Positive
91.62
Positive
84.19
Positive
Market Momentum
1.94
Negative
59.04
Neutral
79.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AEE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 100 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.46, above the 50-day MA of 94.06, and above the 200-day MA of 84.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AEE.
Ameren Risk Analysis
Ameren disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ameren reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ameren Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $21.77B | 21.89 | 8.80% | 2.82% | 0.71% | 11.07% | |
77 Outperform | $27.34B | 19.49 | 12.00% | 3.07% | -1.13% | 0.16% | |
74 Outperform | $35.42B | 19.49 | 8.29% | 3.21% | 4.23% | -27.02% | |
73 Outperform | $56.12B | 18.85 | 73.81% | 3.36% | 2.76% | 31.53% | |
72 Outperform | $16.50B | 23.92 | 345.00% | 2.95% | -1.12% | -3.22% | |
72 Outperform | $27.41B | 22.98 | 16.04% | 2.58% | 1.64% | 1.04% | |
65 Neutral | $12.05B | 15.92 | 6.71% | 4.32% | 8.04% | 3.76% |
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AEE
Ameren
100.00
29.31
41.46%
LNT
Alliant Energy
64.26
16.97
35.88%
AEP
American Electric Power
105.24
24.43
30.23%
CMS
CMS Energy
72.87
14.43
24.69%
ED
Consolidated Edison
102.15
15.33
17.66%
DTE
DTE Energy
131.94
24.10
22.35%
Ameren Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 13, 2025 | % Change Since: 1.76% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Ameren's strong financial performance in 2024, robust infrastructure investments, and positive long-term growth outlook driven by economic development opportunities. Despite facing some regulatory challenges and the need for additional equity issuance, the overall sentiment is positive due to the company's strategic initiatives and solid financial results.Highlights
Strong Financial Performance in 2024
Ameren reported adjusted earnings of $4.63 per share in 2024, compared to $4.38 per share in 2023, exceeding the midpoint of their earnings guidance.
Significant Infrastructure Investments
Ameren strategically invested approximately $4.3 billion in energy infrastructure in 2024 and plans to invest approximately $4.2 billion in 2025.
Robust Long-Term Growth Outlook
Ameren expects a compound annual earnings per share growth of 6% to 8% from 2025 through 2029, with a 9.2% compound annual rate base growth from 2024 through 2029.
Economic Development Opportunities in Missouri
Ameren anticipates a 5.5% compounded annual growth rate in weather-normalized retail sales from 2025 through 2029 due to increased demand from industries like data centers.
Dividend Increase
Ameren's Board of Directors approved a quarterly dividend increase of approximately 6%, resulting in an annualized dividend rate of $2.84 per share.
Transmission Project Leadership
Ameren was selected to lead $1.3 billion worth of critical grid infrastructure projects in Missouri and Illinois as part of MISO's $22 billion Tranche 2.1 portfolio.
Lowlights
Regulatory Challenges
Differences in Ameren's rate increase request and the Missouri PSC staff's recommendation primarily due to disagreements on return on equity and treatment of High Prairie Energy Center.
Federal Regulatory Charges
2024 earnings were impacted by charges related to the NSR settlement for the Rush Island Energy Center and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's order on base return on equity.
Equity Issuance Requirement
To maintain a strong balance sheet, Ameren expects to issue approximately $600 million of equity each year from 2025 through 2029.
Company Guidance
During the Ameren Corporation Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided robust guidance for the coming years. Ameren announced adjusted earnings of $4.63 per share for 2024, exceeding their guidance midpoint, and projected 2025 earnings to range between $4.85 and $5.05 per share, representing approximately 7% growth. Looking ahead, Ameren expects to deliver a 6% to 8% compound annual growth rate in earnings per share from 2025 through 2029, based on a $4.95 midpoint for 2025. The company plans to invest approximately $4.2 billion in energy infrastructure in 2025 and aims for a 9.2% rate base growth from 2024 to 2029, driven by a 20% increase in their five-year capital plan. Additionally, Ameren's Board has approved a 6% increase in the quarterly dividend, marking the 12th consecutive annual increase, aligning with their long-term growth expectations.Ameren Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Ameren Elects New Board Member for 2025
Positive
Dec 16, 2024
Ameren Corporation announced the election of Steven O. Vondran to its Board of Directors, effective January 1, 2025. Vondran, who is the CEO of American Tower Corporation, brings extensive leadership experience in real estate and data center infrastructure, which is expected to support Ameren’s economic growth initiatives in Missouri and Illinois, benefiting its customers and stakeholders.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.