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Western Alliance (WAL)
NYSE:WAL

Western Alliance (WAL) AI Stock Analysis

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Western Alliance

(NYSE:WAL)

59Neutral
Western Alliance's stock score reflects a mix of strengths and challenges. The strong balance sheet and attractive valuation are key positives. However, technical weaknesses, missing revenue data, and operational challenges weigh on the score. Investors should watch for improvements in revenue clarity and technical trends.
Positive Factors
Capital Position
Management maintains a strong capital position, allowing flexibility for loan growth, acquisitions, or share buybacks.
Earnings
Western Alliance shares reacted negatively to better-than-expected results, which implies potential for the bank to earn a higher EPS than previously forecasted.
Valuation
Despite superior growth prospects, the stock trades at a meaningful discount to peers, indicating potential undervaluation.
Negative Factors
Deposit Growth
$2 billion in expected deposit outflows in the fourth quarter are likely to keep shares range-bound in the near term.
Guidance
Western Alliance reported a mixed quarter and provided a weaker than expected 2024 guidance update.
Interest Rates
Elevated interest rates are likely to remain a concern for stock valuation due to impacts on funding costs and perceived credit risk.

Western Alliance (WAL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Western Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionWestern Alliance Bancorporation operates as the bank holding company for Western Alliance Bank that provides various banking products and related services primarily in Arizona, California, and Nevada. It operates in Commercial, Consumer Related, and Corporate & Other segments. The company offers deposit products, including checking, savings, and money market accounts, as well as fixed-rate and fixed maturity certificates of deposit accounts; and treasury management and residential mortgage products and services. It also offers commercial and industrial loan products, such as working capital lines of credit, loans to technology companies, inventory and accounts receivable lines, mortgage warehouse lines, equipment loans and leases, and other commercial loans; commercial real estate loans, which are secured by multi-family residential properties, professional offices, industrial facilities, retail centers, hotels, and other commercial properties; construction and land development loans for single family and multi-family residential projects, industrial/warehouse properties, office buildings, retail centers, medical office facilities, and residential lot developments; and consumer loans. In addition, the company provides other financial services, such as internet banking, wire transfers, electronic bill payment and presentment, lock box services, courier, and cash management services. Further, it holds certain investment securities, municipal and non-profit loans, and leases; invests primarily in low-income housing tax credits and small business investment corporations; and holds certain real estate loans and related securities. The company operates 36 branch locations, as well as loan production offices. Western Alliance Bancorporation was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
How the Company Makes MoneyWestern Alliance makes money primarily through interest income from its lending activities, which include commercial loans, real estate loans, and consumer loans. The company earns revenue from the interest rate spread between the interest it pays on deposits and the interest it earns on loans. In addition to interest income, Western Alliance generates revenue from non-interest income sources such as fees for treasury management services, deposit account services, and other banking services. The bank also benefits from strategic partnerships and a network of branches that enhance its outreach and customer service capabilities, contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Western Alliance Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Western Alliance shows financial resilience with a strong balance sheet and improving cash flows. The balance sheet is robust with zero debt, enhancing stability. However, the income statement is concerning due to missing revenue data for 2024, raising questions about revenue reliability. Cash flow improvements are noted, but operational volatility persists.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows volatility in revenue and profit margins. The company experienced a drop in total revenue in the latest year, with total revenue at zero for 2024, which is unusual and suggests data inconsistency or reporting issues. The net income for 2024 is higher than in previous years, indicating some level of profitability. However, the absence of revenue figures raises concerns about sustainability.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet displays a solid equity base with stockholders' equity rising to $6.7 billion in 2024 from $6.1 billion in 2023. The debt-to-equity ratio improved significantly, with total debt dropping to zero, indicating strong balance sheet management. The equity ratio increased, reflecting a stable capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet indicates financial stability with reduced leverage.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals improvements but also inconsistencies. The operating cash flow turned positive in 2024 after a negative outflow in 2023, showing better cash generation. Free cash flow also improved significantly, swinging from negative to positive. However, the volatility in cash flows over recent years suggests some operational challenges.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.16B2.13B2.30B1.84B1.20B
Gross Profit
3.16B2.56B2.30B1.84B1.20B
EBIT
-3.03B865.20M1.81B1.12B622.50M
EBITDA
0.001.02B1.39B1.17B657.10M
Net Income Common Stockholders
787.70M722.40M1.06B899.20M506.60M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
13.79B1.58B8.13B6.71B7.38B
Total Assets
80.93B70.86B67.73B55.98B36.46B
Total Debt
6.62B8.12B7.38B2.52B633.60M
Net Debt
2.52B6.55B6.33B2.01B-2.04B
Total Liabilities
74.23B64.78B62.38B51.02B33.05B
Stockholders Equity
6.71B6.08B5.36B4.96B3.41B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
235.90M-442.90M2.10B-2.72B643.40M
Operating Cash Flow
235.90M-328.60M2.25B-2.65B670.20M
Investing Cash Flow
-19.00M-2.16B-13.13B-14.71B-7.54B
Financing Cash Flow
-176.70M3.02B11.41B15.21B9.10B

Western Alliance Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price65.34
Price Trends
50DMA
77.04
Negative
100DMA
82.39
Negative
200DMA
81.49
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.66
Negative
RSI
40.59
Neutral
STOCH
67.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 65.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.10, below the 50-day MA of 77.04, and below the 200-day MA of 81.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WAL.

Western Alliance Risk Analysis

Western Alliance disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Western Alliance reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Western Alliance Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
WBWBS
76
Outperform
$7.63B10.198.54%3.59%5.86%-10.72%
74
Outperform
$7.14B10.3511.84%1.82%11.51%7.73%
CFCFR
73
Outperform
$7.11B12.4815.13%3.38%7.81%-2.49%
71
Outperform
$6.97B15.107.77%0.96%8.09%-11.31%
CMCMA
67
Neutral
$6.64B10.1010.72%5.61%-6.54%-21.90%
63
Neutral
$12.07B9.358.15%79.57%12.85%-5.13%
WAWAL
59
Neutral
$6.98B8.9212.32%2.31%13.60%8.85%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
WAL
Western Alliance
65.34
7.10
12.19%
CMA
Comerica
52.31
1.98
3.93%
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers
113.38
0.14
0.12%
PNFP
Pinnacle Financial Partners
96.99
14.79
17.99%
WBS
Webster Financial
46.16
2.03
4.60%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
106.66
8.16
8.28%

Western Alliance Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Apr 21, 2025 | % Change Since: 0.71% | Next Earnings Date: Jul 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Western Alliance Bancorporation reported strong growth in pre-provision net revenue and maintained a solid capital and liquidity position. However, challenges such as a slight decline in net interest margin, an increase in classified assets, and flat noninterest income were noted. Overall, the positives of revenue growth and strong balance sheet management outweigh the negatives.
Highlights
Record Pre-Provision Net Revenue Growth
Western Alliance's pre-provision net revenue reached $278 million, a $31 million or 12% year-over-year increase, driven by a 9% increase in net interest income.
Strong Capital and Liquidity Position
The company maintained a CET1 ratio of 11.1%, with total equity increasing by $508 million. The issuance of REIT preferred equity contributed $293 million, enhancing capital strength.
Loan and Deposit Growth
The balance sheet expanded by $2.1 billion, with HFI loan and deposit growth of $1.1 billion and $3 billion respectively. The company projects $5 billion in loan growth and $8 billion in deposit growth for the full year.
Positive Outlook for Net Interest Income
Net interest income is expected to increase 6% to 8% for 2025, supported by sustained loan growth and expanding net interest margin.
Lowlights
Decline in Net Interest Margin
The net interest margin slightly declined by 1 basis point to 3.47%, with factors such as rate cuts and pricing pressure affecting yields.
Increase in Classified Assets
Classified assets rose by $186 million, indicating some deterioration in asset quality, though non-accrual loans declined by $25 million.
Flat Noninterest Income
Noninterest income was relatively stable year-over-year at $127 million, with mortgage banking revenue facing a quarterly decline due to lower gain on sale margins.
Company Guidance
During Western Alliance Bancorporation's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided detailed financial guidance for the year. The company expects loan growth to reach $5 billion and deposit growth to reach $8 billion for the full year, supported by strong client engagement and active pipelines. Net interest income is projected to increase by 6% to 8%, driven by sustained loan growth and an expanding net interest margin that is expected to approximate 2024's level. Noninterest income is also anticipated to grow in line with net interest income, reflecting deepening client relationships and enhanced commercial banking fees. The company forecasts noninterest expenses to range between 0% growth and a 5% decline, aided by declining ECR costs resulting from two projected 25 basis point rate cuts before the year's end. Asset quality is anticipated to remain stable, with full-year net charge-offs around 20 basis points, and the effective tax rate for 2025 is expected to be approximately 20%.

Western Alliance Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Western Alliance Reappoints Kenneth Vecchione as CEO
Positive
Apr 21, 2025

Western Alliance Bancorporation announced the reappointment of Kenneth A. Vecchione as President and CEO, effective April 15, 2025, following his temporary medical leave. Dale Gibbons, who served as interim CEO, will continue as Vice Chair and CFO. The company reported solid financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with net income of $199.1 million and earnings per share of $1.79. Despite a decrease in net revenue compared to the previous quarter, the company saw growth in loans and deposits, and maintained strong asset quality and capital levels, positioning it well for future business momentum.

Spark’s Take on WAL Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, WAL is a Neutral.

Western Alliance’s solid balance sheet and attractive valuation contribute positively to its overall stock score. Despite strong earnings guidance and deposit growth, concerns about missing revenue data and technical weaknesses weigh on the score. Investors should monitor financial reporting clarity and technical trends as key factors in future stock performance.

To see Spark’s full report on WAL stock, click here.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.