tiprankstipranks
Vince Holding (VNCE)
NYSE:VNCE

Vince Holding (VNCE) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
120 Followers

Top Page

VN

Vince Holding

(NYSE:VNCE)

72Outperform
Vince Holding's overall stock score reflects a moderate investment opportunity. The company's strengths include positive technical indicators and a strategic acquisition likely to enhance growth. However, financial challenges such as high leverage and operational efficiency need addressing. The balanced sentiment from the earnings call and reasonable valuation further support this outlook.

Vince Holding (VNCE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Vince Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVince Holding Corp. (VNCE) is a prominent fashion brand primarily engaged in the design, marketing, and sale of luxury apparel and accessories. The company operates in the premium fashion sector, offering a wide range of high-end women's and men's clothing, as well as footwear and handbags. Vince is known for its contemporary style, focusing on timeless designs and premium quality materials. The brand is distributed through its own stores, leading department stores, and online platforms.
How the Company Makes MoneyVince Holding Corp. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its luxury apparel and accessories. The company operates a direct-to-consumer model via its retail stores and e-commerce platform, which represents a significant portion of its revenue stream. Additionally, Vince collaborates with various wholesale partners, including prominent department stores and specialty retailers, providing an additional channel for sales. The brand's reputation for quality and style allows it to maintain premium pricing on its products, contributing to its revenue. Key factors that influence earnings include consumer demand for luxury goods, fashion trends, and the company's ability to manage supply chain and production costs.

Vince Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vince Holding demonstrates moderate financial health with improved profitability margins and strong cash flow generation. However, the company faces high leverage and operational efficiency challenges, which pose risks to sustaining long-term growth.
Income Statement
68
Positive
Vince Holding shows a moderate recovery in profitability with a TTM gross profit margin of 47.9% and a net profit margin of 1.6%. The revenue growth rate is slightly negative compared to the previous annual report, indicating a decrease in revenue. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are quite low, reflecting operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.63, indicating significant leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is 8.1%, which is a reasonable return given the high leverage. The equity ratio stands at 22.4%, showing a moderate level of equity financing relative to assets.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The company has shown significant improvement in cash flow metrics, with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.98 and a positive free cash flow growth rate. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.28, indicating efficient cash generation relative to profits.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
288.81M292.89M357.44M322.68M219.87M375.19M
Gross Profit
138.28M133.29M137.97M146.57M88.60M178.43M
EBIT
3.18M31.62M-25.42M-6.01M-34.21M45.34M
EBITDA
13.07M36.47M-17.18M483.00K-52.14M44.93M
Net Income Common Stockholders
4.63M25.45M-38.35M-12.70M-63.95M30.40M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
118.00K357.00K1.08M1.06M3.78M466.00K
Total Assets
234.93M225.15M303.35M337.23M332.94M362.30M
Total Debt
45.09M128.46M204.57M208.56M203.71M162.28M
Net Debt
44.97M128.10M203.49M207.50M199.94M161.81M
Total Liabilities
160.83M178.00M283.09M281.45M265.04M231.52M
Stockholders Equity
74.10M47.15M20.26M55.78M67.91M130.78M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
10.54M180.00K-22.04M-5.28M-28.57M12.30M
Operating Cash Flow
13.80M1.64M-19.26M-221.00K-25.07M16.82M
Investing Cash Flow
-3.27M75.54M1.47M-5.05M-3.50M-4.52M
Financing Cash Flow
-12.05M-77.08M17.81M2.51M31.79M-11.99M

Vince Holding Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.22
Price Trends
50DMA
3.26
Negative
100DMA
2.62
Negative
200DMA
2.15
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.24
Positive
RSI
33.58
Neutral
STOCH
10.65
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VNCE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.67, below the 50-day MA of 3.26, and above the 200-day MA of 2.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VNCE.

Vince Holding Risk Analysis

Vince Holding disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vince Holding reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vince Holding Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
RLRL
81
Outperform
$13.79B19.9127.57%1.48%5.23%24.63%
TPTPR
76
Outperform
$14.90B20.5239.82%1.98%0.74%-12.69%
72
Outperform
$27.99M6.148.53%-6.50%-76.07%
KTKTB
67
Neutral
$3.32B13.6063.68%3.40%0.07%7.19%
PVPVH
67
Neutral
$3.75B5.7013.79%0.21%-4.83%45.23%
GEGES
64
Neutral
$524.35M8.4919.13%11.78%9.28%-47.88%
60
Neutral
$12.39B10.471.07%3.58%1.64%-18.33%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VNCE
Vince Holding
2.07
-1.28
-38.21%
TPR
Tapestry
71.69
25.14
54.01%
GES
Guess?, Inc.
10.19
-11.98
-54.04%
PVH
PVH
66.29
-65.50
-49.70%
RL
Ralph Lauren
225.26
45.45
25.28%
KTB
Kontoor Brands
61.08
2.01
3.40%

Vince Holding Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Dec 10, 2024 | % Change Since: 16.84% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted several positive developments, including improved profitability, successful e-commerce enhancements, and international expansion. However, these were countered by notable challenges such as a significant decline in net sales and increased operational costs due to royalty expenses. The overall sentiment is balanced with both positive strides and challenges.
Highlights
Improved Profitability
Year-to-date, Vince Holding Corp. delivered improved profitability over the prior year period despite incurring incremental costs due to operating changes with their partnership with Authentic Brands Group.
Operating Margin Expansion
Vince delivered 120 basis points of operating margin expansion for the quarter, supported by lower freight expense and lower promotional activity.
Successful E-commerce Enhancements
The company's online gifting pages resulted in a 50% increase in average order value and double the conversion rate compared to the site average.
International Expansion
Vince celebrated the grand opening of its first freestanding store in China at Nanjing's Deji Plaza, with plans to open a Beijing location in spring 2024.
Transformation Program Savings
The transformation program is expected to deliver over $30 million in cost savings over the next 3 years through various operational efficiencies.
Lowlights
Decrease in Net Sales
Total company net sales for the third quarter decreased by 14.7% to $84.1 million compared to $98.6 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2022.
Vince Brand Sales Decline
Vince brand sales declined by 6.2% compared to the prior year period, driven by declines in both wholesale and direct-to-consumer segments.
Increased Royalty Expenses
The company incurred approximately $4 million of royalty expenses that were not present in fiscal 2022, impacting overall cost structure.
Company Guidance
During the Vince Holding Corp. Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call, the company reported a 14.7% decrease in net sales to $84.1 million compared to $98.6 million in the same quarter of the previous year. This decline was primarily attributed to the complete wind down of the Rebecca Taylor and Parker brands, which accounted for $8.9 million in sales during the third quarter of fiscal 2022. Despite these challenges, Vince brand sales only decreased by 6.2%, and the company achieved a 120 basis point operating margin expansion, driven by lower freight costs and promotional activities. Gross profit for the quarter was $37.2 million, representing a 44.2% gross margin, up from 30.2% in the prior year due to improved product margins and reduced expenses from the Rebecca Taylor wind-down. Additionally, the company reported $2.8 million in operating income, a significant improvement from the $9.4 million loss in the previous year. Vince also highlighted strategic initiatives, including a transformation program aimed at delivering over $30 million in cost savings over the next three years and an improved average order value (AOV) on its e-commerce site, which increased by 50% compared to the site average.

Vince Holding Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
P180 Acquires Majority Stake in Vince Holding Corp.
Positive
Jan 22, 2025

On January 22, 2025, P180 acquired a 65% majority stake in Vince Holding Corp. for approximately $19.8 million, marking a significant shift in the company’s control from Sun Capital affiliates. This acquisition is expected to enhance Vince’s market position and profitability, with Brendan Hoffman anticipated to become CEO on February 3, 2025. Concurrently, Vince reduced its debt through a pay-down of $20 million under its Sun Debt Facility and P-180’s assumption and cancellation of $7 million in loans. The acquisition aligns with P180’s strategy to invest in luxury apparel brands and is expected to drive growth and innovation at Vince.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.