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Guess?, Inc. (GES)
NYSE:GES
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Guess?, Inc.
(NYSE:GES)
64Neutral
Guess?, Inc. (GES) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$579.92M
Dividend Yield10.65%
Average Volume (3M)1.29M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth9.28%
EPS Growth-47.88%
CountryUS
Employees12,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength50
IndustryRetail - Discretionary
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.33
Shares Outstanding51,456,840
10 Day Avg. Volume1,909,353
30 Day Avg. Volume1,294,920
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-1.70
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.00Price Target Upside27.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
Guess?, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGuess?, Inc. (GES) is a globally recognized fashion brand known for its trendy and upscale apparel, accessories, and lifestyle products. Founded in 1981, the company operates in the retail and wholesale sectors, offering a wide range of products including clothing for men, women, and children, as well as footwear, handbags, watches, jewelry, and fragrances. Guess? is headquartered in Los Angeles, California and operates in various geographic markets including North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, with a strong presence in both brick-and-mortar stores and digital commerce.
How the Company Makes MoneyGuess?, Inc. generates revenue through multiple channels including retail, wholesale, and licensing. The company's retail operations encompass a global network of branded stores, both directly operated and through partnerships, providing a direct-to-consumer sales model. The wholesale segment involves selling Guess? products to department stores and specialty retailers, expanding the brand's reach beyond its own retail locations. Additionally, Guess? capitalizes on licensing agreements for products such as eyewear, watches, and fragrances, allowing third parties to produce and sell these items under the Guess? brand name. These diversified revenue streams, combined with strategic marketing and a focus on fashion-forward designs, contribute to the company's financial performance.
Guess?, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Guess?, Inc. demonstrates solid revenue growth, but faces challenges in profitability and cash flow. High leverage poses risks to financial stability despite a strong asset base.Income Statement
Guess?, Inc. shows a consistent revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) increase in total revenue from $2,776.53 million to $2,954.07 million, representing a growth rate of 6.41%. Gross profit margin is healthy at 43.84% for TTM. However, net income has decreased, resulting in a lower net profit margin of 4.58% compared to last year's 7.14%. The EBIT margin has also decreased to 7.47% from 9.48%, indicating some pressure on operating profitability.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is high at 3.27, indicating significant leverage. Stockholders' equity has decreased, impacting the equity ratio, which stands at 16.12%. Return on equity has dropped to 30.03% from 28.93% TTM, reflecting pressure on profitability. The high debt level poses a risk, but the company maintains a reasonable asset base to support its operations.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow has declined from $330.38 million to $227.95 million, aligning with the decline in net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.05, indicating good conversion of income to cash. However, free cash flow has decreased by 44.31% from the previous annual report, reflecting challenges in maintaining cash generation.70
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 2.95B | 2.78B | 2.69B | 2.59B | 1.88B | 2.68B | Gross Profit |
| 1.30B | 1.22B | 1.15B | 1.17B | 697.10M | 1.02B | EBIT |
| 220.68M | 263.28M | 159.31M | 222.84M | -47.27M | 77.66M | EBITDA |
| 214.31M | 318.65M | 316.39M | 364.37M | -890.00K | 222.43M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 135.36M | 198.20M | 149.61M | 171.36M | -80.74M | 95.97M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 140.91M | 360.29M | 275.76M | 415.56M | 469.11M | 284.61M | Total Assets |
| 2.79B | 2.59B | 2.43B | 2.56B | 2.47B | 2.43B | Total Debt |
| 1.47B | 1.16B | 1.13B | 1.15B | 1.25B | 1.20B | Net Debt |
| 1.33B | 802.31M | 857.89M | 737.65M | 782.23M | 911.15M | Total Liabilities |
| 2.30B | 1.85B | 1.84B | 1.89B | 1.90B | 1.76B | Stockholders Equity |
| 450.73M | 684.94M | 534.11M | 622.66M | 543.66M | 639.71M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 142.66M | 256.17M | 79.69M | 68.12M | 190.17M | 136.04M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 227.94M | 330.38M | 169.19M | 131.64M | 209.05M | 197.91M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -103.85M | -75.14M | -89.87M | -62.28M | -22.16M | -56.47M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -221.02M | -168.84M | -217.19M | -97.04M | -9.91M | -64.17M |
Guess?, Inc. Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.19
Price Trends
12.51
Negative
14.57
Negative
17.63
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.64
Negative
46.37
Neutral
60.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GES, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.36, below the 50-day MA of 12.51, and below the 200-day MA of 17.63, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GES.
Guess?, Inc. Risk Analysis
Guess?, Inc. disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Guess?, Inc. reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Guess?, Inc. Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $5.04B | 12.81 | 17.56% | ― | 7.71% | 40.01% | |
74 Outperform | $3.94B | 7.30 | 47.77% | ― | 15.60% | 71.45% | |
69 Neutral | $2.32B | 10.99 | 13.28% | 3.90% | 6.38% | 6.08% | |
64 Neutral | $579.92M | 8.26 | 19.13% | 10.65% | 9.28% | -47.88% | |
63 Neutral | $1.34B | 5.50 | 6.54% | 16.60% | -4.33% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $5.18B | 235.96 | 7.53% | 0.15% | ― | ― | |
60 Neutral | $12.41B | 10.84 | 1.22% | 3.53% | 1.65% | -18.69% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GES
Guess?, Inc.
10.19
-11.73
-53.51%
ANF
Abercrombie Fitch
78.69
-41.87
-34.73%
AEO
American Eagle
11.49
-10.32
-47.32%
KSS
Kohl's
9.15
-13.77
-60.08%
URBN
Urban Outfitters
54.23
13.59
33.44%
LB
LandBridge Company LLC Class A
68.22
45.33
198.03%
Guess?, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Nov 26, 2024 | % Change Since: -40.06% | Next Earnings Date: Mar 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
While the company experienced significant revenue growth and success in areas like the Americas wholesale and the integration of rag & bone, challenges in Asia and North America retail, along with currency and freight headwinds, led to a cautious outlook for the remainder of the year.Highlights
Revenue Growth
Revenues increased by 13% to $739 million, with a growth of 14% in constant dollars.
Americas Wholesale Success
Sales increased by roughly 25% in the Americas wholesale business, driven by the internalization of outerwear.
Marketing Investments
Marketing and advertising investments increased by roughly 85% to enhance brand awareness and customer engagement.
Rag & Bone Integration
Rag & Bone delivered double-digit sales growth year-over-year, with strong direct-to-consumer trends.
Lowlights
Challenges in Asia
Asia did not meet expectations with softness in South Korea and China, leading to a slight decline in the core Guess business.
North America Retail Decline
North America retail business did not meet expectations, with store traffic and comp sales declining.
Currency and Freight Headwinds
The stronger U.S. dollar and increased freight costs negatively impacted revenue and profit expectations by $45 million and $10 million, respectively.
Lower Full-Year Outlook
Full-year revenue expectations were adjusted to slightly below $3 billion, with adjusted EPS outlook revised to $1.85 to $2.
Company Guidance
During the Guess Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 earnings call, key guidance metrics were provided by the executives. The company reported a 13% increase in revenues, reaching $739 million, though slightly below expectations due to currency fluctuations. Despite challenges, the adjusted operating margin stood at 5.8%, with an adjusted operating profit of $43 million. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.34. For the full fiscal year, Guess revised its revenue outlook to slightly below $3 billion, reflecting growth between 7% and 8%, and updated the adjusted EPS forecast to a range of $1.85 to $2. They noted challenges such as a stronger U.S. dollar, increased freight costs, and consumer price sensitivity impacting the fourth quarter. The company remains optimistic, focusing on strategic initiatives including marketing investments and brand expansion with rag & bone, aiming for long-term growth and value creation.Guess?, Inc. Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Guess?, Inc. Appoints New Board Member Amid Changes
Neutral
Jan 23, 2025
On January 21, 2025, Thomas J. Barrack, Jr. resigned from the Board of Directors of Guess?, Inc. Christopher N. Lewis was appointed as his replacement, effective January 22, 2025. Lewis brings extensive legal and leadership experience from his previous role as Chief Legal Officer and General Counsel at Edward Jones. His appointment is part of the ERSRI Settlement, requiring Guess?, Inc. to appoint a new independent director. Lewis will serve on the Nominating and Governance Committee and be compensated according to the company’s standard arrangements for non-employee directors.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.