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Tesla (TSLA)
NASDAQ:TSLA
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Tesla
(NASDAQ:TSLA)78Outperform
Positive Factors
Infrastructure Advantage
Tesla's economic advantages include its EV charging infrastructure and supercharger network, which are seeing rising adoption by competitors.
Market Position
Tesla is reinstated as the 'Top Pick' in US Autos with significant upside to the price target.
Negative Factors
Earnings Performance
Tesla's 4Q/2024 earnings missed expectations due to softer-than-expected automotive margins.
Political Involvement
News sources such as Bloomberg and Barron's have cited Elon Musk's involvement in the political sphere as a potential driver of declining favorability.
Sales Performance
Tesla's January sales in Europe are down 45% y/y in a month when European EV sales are up 37% y/y.
Tesla (TSLA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$875.02B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)81.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)133.5
Beta (1Y)2.28
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees125,665
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength53
IndustryVehicles
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.04
Shares Outstanding3,216,517,000
10 Day Avg. Volume95,539,770
30 Day Avg. Volume81,165,257
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)9.37
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)47.60
P/FCF Ratio102.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$346.72Price Target Upside27.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering35
Tesla Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTesla, Inc. manufactures and sells fully electric vehicles, solar energy generation systems and energy storage products. It also operates a network of vehicle service centers and Supercharger stations. The company operates through two segments: Automotive and Energy Generation & Storage. Founded by Jeffrey B. Straubel, Elon Reeve Musk, Martin Eberhard, and Marc Tarpenning on July 1, 2003, the company is headquartered in Palo Alto, CA.
How the Company Makes Money
Tesla Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Tesla demonstrates solid financial health with strong revenue growth and profitability margins. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage and good equity capitalization. While cash flows are generally positive, the decline in free cash flow warrants attention. Overall, Tesla maintains a strong financial position with a positive growth trajectory, though operational efficiency and cash flow trends should be monitored.Income Statement
Tesla has shown consistent revenue growth, with a 20% increase from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin is strong at 17.9%, and the net profit margin is also impressive at 7.3%. However, the decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins from 9.2% and 15.3% in 2023 to 7.2% and 11.8% in 2024 respectively suggests some pressure on operational efficiency.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, indicating low leverage. The equity ratio is healthy at 59.7%, showing strong capitalization. Return on equity is commendable at 9.7%, reflecting effective use of equity capital.90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Tesla's operating cash flow to net income ratio stands at 2.1, highlighting strong cash generation relative to net income. However, free cash flow decreased by 16.3% from 2023 to 2024, which could signal challenges in maintaining free cash flow growth.78
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 97.69B | 96.77B | 81.46B | 53.82B | 31.54B | Gross Profit |
| 17.45B | 17.66B | 20.85B | 13.61B | 6.63B | EBIT |
| 7.08B | 8.89B | 13.66B | 6.52B | -1.99B | EBITDA |
| 14.71B | 14.80B | 17.40B | 9.63B | 4.22B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 7.09B | 15.00B | 12.58B | 5.52B | 721.00M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 36.56B | 29.09B | 22.18B | 17.71B | 19.38B | Total Assets |
| 122.07B | 106.62B | 82.34B | 62.13B | 52.15B | Total Debt |
| 8.21B | 9.57B | 5.75B | 8.87B | 13.28B | Net Debt |
| -28.35B | -6.83B | -10.51B | -8.70B | -6.11B | Total Liabilities |
| 48.39B | 43.01B | 36.44B | 30.55B | 28.47B | Stockholders Equity |
| 72.91B | 62.63B | 44.70B | 30.19B | 22.23B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 3.65B | 4.36B | 7.55B | 3.48B | 2.70B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 14.92B | 13.26B | 14.72B | 11.50B | 5.94B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -18.79B | -15.58B | -11.97B | -7.87B | -3.13B | Financing Cash Flow |
| 3.85B | 2.59B | -3.53B | -5.20B | 9.97B |
Tesla Risk Analysis
Tesla disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tesla reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tesla Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $875.02B | 133.46 | 10.52% | ― | ― | ― | |
74 Outperform | $48.88B | 7.72 | 9.53% | 1.01% | 9.08% | -15.25% | |
71 Outperform | $36.15B | 6.24 | 13.42% | 7.99% | 5.00% | 35.92% | |
60 Neutral | $13.01B | 10.45 | 0.79% | 3.53% | 1.60% | -22.47% | |
43 Neutral | $12.73B | ― | -72.34% | ― | 12.09% | 17.65% | |
37 Underperform | $6.43B | ― | -70.08% | ― | 35.71% | 8.24% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TSLA
Tesla
272.04
91.30
50.51%
F
Ford Motor
9.12
-2.57
-21.98%
GM
General Motors
45.22
4.87
12.07%
NKLAQ
Nikola
―
―
―
LCID
Lucid Group
2.10
-1.08
-33.96%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
11.26
0.33
3.02%
Tesla Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Jan 29, 2025 | % Change Since: -30.08% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of strong performance in vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployment, alongside challenges in margins and production due to new model transitions and regulatory uncertainties. The advancements in Full Self Driving and energy storage indicate significant growth potential, but these are tempered by short-term production and regulatory hurdles.Highlights
Record Vehicle Deliveries
Tesla delivered vehicles at an annualized rate of nearly 2 million a year, setting a new record for production and deliveries.
Best-Selling Vehicle
Model Y was the best-selling vehicle of any kind globally in 2024.
Energy Storage Deployment Growth
Energy storage deployments reached an all-time high in Q4 with a new record for deliveries in the Greater China market.
Cost Reductions Achieved
Overall cost per car was reduced to below $35,000, primarily through material cost reductions.
Free Cash Flow
Tesla generated free cash flow of $3.6 billion for the year despite increased CapEx.
Expansion of Battery Production
Tesla's second factory is operational in Shanghai, and a third factory is under construction to ramp up stationary battery storage production.
Lowlights
Automotive Margin Decline
Quarter-over-quarter decline in automotive margin due to lower ASPs and FSD-related revenue recognition.
Production Challenges
Introduction of the new Model Y across all factories will result in several weeks of lost production, impacting margins due to idle capacity.
Regulatory and Tariff Concerns
Uncertainty around tariffs and reliance on a global supply chain may impact business and profitability.
Hardware 3 Upgrade Costs
Tesla will need to upgrade Hardware 3 vehicles for those who have purchased Full Self Driving, posing potential CapEx challenges.
Company Guidance
In the Tesla Fourth Quarter 2024 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk highlighted significant achievements and ambitious future goals. Tesla delivered vehicles at an annualized rate of nearly 2 million, with the Model Y being the best-selling vehicle globally. Musk emphasized the exponential focus on autonomy, projecting Tesla's potential to become the world's most valuable company. The company is set to launch unsupervised Full Self Driving (FSD) as a paid service in Austin by June 2025, and Musk foresees the capability expanding nationwide by the end of the year. Tesla's Q4 Vehicle Safety Report showed significant year-over-year safety improvements with FSD, and the company continues to invest heavily in AI infrastructure, including a new Cortex training cluster at Gigafactory Austin. Musk projected that Optimus humanoid robots could generate over $10 trillion in revenue long-term, with plans to build several thousand units in 2025. Tesla also set records in energy storage deployments and vehicle deliveries, despite a challenging macro environment, and plans to introduce several new models, including a more affordable vehicle, in 2025.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.