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Sunrun Inc. (RUN)
:RUN
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Sunrun
(NASDAQ:RUN)46Neutral
Positive Factors
Battery Performance
Battery shipment exceeded estimates, indicating strong performance in that segment.
Cash Generation Strategy
Sunrun continues to execute in a tough macro delivering cash generation through higher value offerings and remaining disciplined.
Negative Factors
Market Pressures
There is a perception of increased risk for Sunrun Inc.'s future targets due to ongoing market pressures and a higher cost of capital.
Sunrun (RUN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.52B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)11.40M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.65
Revenue Growth-9.83%
EPS Growth-71.44%
CountryUS
Employees10,833
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength48
IndustryRenewable Energy Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-12.74
Shares Outstanding226,209,700
10 Day Avg. Volume13,624,838
30 Day Avg. Volume11,399,888
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.74
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-1.50
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.52Price Target Upside95.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
Sunrun Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSunRun, Inc. engages in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership and maintenance of residential solar energy systems. It sells solar service offerings and install solar energy systems for homeowners through its direct-to-consumer channel. It also offers plans such as monthly lease, full amount lease, purchase system, and monthly loan. The company was founded by Edward H. Fenster, Robert N. Kreamer and Lynn M. Jurich in January 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, CA.
How the Company Makes MoneySunrun makes money primarily through the sale and installation of solar energy systems, as well as through long-term customer agreements such as solar leases and power purchase agreements (PPAs). In these agreements, customers either pay a fixed monthly fee or buy the power generated by the solar system at a predetermined rate. Sunrun also generates revenue by selling solar renewable energy credits (SRECs) and through federal and state incentives related to solar energy production. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships with home builders and utilities to expand its customer base and enhance its service offerings.
Sunrun Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Sunrun faces financial difficulties characterized by declining revenues, persistent losses, and high leverage. The company's profitability and cash generation capabilities are under pressure, raising concerns about its financial health and stability. The renewable energy industry presents growth opportunities, but Sunrun must address its operational inefficiencies and strengthen its balance sheet to capitalize on these opportunities.Income Statement
The income statement shows significant challenges for Sunrun, with a declining revenue trend from 2022 to 2024 and consistently negative net income, indicating sustained losses. The gross profit margin remained stable in 2024, but the net profit margin has been negative, reflecting ongoing profitability issues. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating operational inefficiencies.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Sunrun's balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio due to substantial increases in total debt over the years. Stockholders' equity has decreased significantly, leading to a weakened equity ratio. Despite a strong asset base, the company faces risks due to high leverage and declining equity, which could impact short-term financial stability.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement highlights persistent negative free cash flow, exacerbating liquidity concerns. Operating cash flow has remained consistently negative, further indicating cash management challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning, reflecting insufficient cash generation relative to reported losses.40
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 2.04B | 2.26B | 2.32B | 1.61B | 922.19M | Gross Profit |
| 2.04B | 163.06M | 298.71M | 244.48M | 178.66M | EBIT |
| -3.70B | -1.98B | -401.54M | -666.19M | -465.11M | EBITDA |
| -2.91B | -1.46B | 60.22M | -268.68M | -213.98M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -2.85B | -1.60B | -849.64M | -980.53M | -626.95M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 574.96M | 678.82M | 740.51M | 617.63M | 519.97M | Total Assets |
| 19.90B | 20.45B | 19.27B | 16.48B | 14.38B | Total Debt |
| 12.99B | 11.09B | 8.73B | 6.85B | 5.16B | Net Debt |
| 12.42B | 10.41B | 7.99B | 6.23B | 4.64B | Total Liabilities |
| 15.73B | 13.54B | 11.09B | 8.91B | 7.09B | Stockholders Equity |
| 2.55B | 5.23B | 6.71B | 6.25B | 6.08B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -726.91M | -3.43B | -2.86B | -2.50B | -1.29B | Operating Cash Flow |
| -766.15M | -820.74M | -848.79M | -817.19M | -317.97M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -2.70B | -2.61B | -2.09B | -1.69B | -497.79M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 3.43B | 3.47B | 3.04B | 2.65B | 1.16B |
Sunrun Technical Analysis
Negative
6.90
Price Trends
9.09
Negative
10.71
Negative
13.54
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.63
Positive
33.78
Neutral
22.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RUN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.12, below the 50-day MA of 9.09, and below the 200-day MA of 13.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RUN.
Sunrun Risk Analysis
Sunrun disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sunrun reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sunrun Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $14.05B | 10.89 | 17.62% | ― | 26.75% | 55.24% | |
68 Neutral | $7.66B | 79.45 | 11.30% | ― | -41.92% | -76.24% | |
59 Neutral | $22.39B | 11.53 | -18.05% | 2.31% | 5.00% | -25.89% | |
56 Neutral | $872.33M | ― | -116.01% | ― | -68.86% | -4917.87% | |
53 Neutral | $674.32M | 737.23 | 0.03% | ― | -21.68% | -99.75% | |
46 Neutral | $1.52B | ― | -73.12% | ― | -9.83% | -71.44% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
RUN
Sunrun
6.90
-5.34
-43.63%
CSIQ
Canadian Solar
10.10
-10.25
-50.37%
ENPH
Enphase Energy
58.65
-66.71
-53.21%
FSLR
First Solar
130.90
-27.52
-17.37%
SEDG
SolarEdge Technologies
15.59
-54.77
-77.84%
Sunrun Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 27, 2025 | % Change Since: -12.77% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Sunrun's earnings call highlighted strong storage attachment rates, positive cash generation, and debt reduction, indicating solid financial health and strategic execution. However, challenges such as slower ramp in domestic content ITC adders, flat solar installation growth, and higher capital costs were noted as areas of concern.Highlights
Record High Storage Attachment Rates
Sunrun installed storage for 62% of new customers, an increase of 17 percentage points from a year ago, and installed 392 megawatt hours of storage in Q4, up 78% from a year ago.
Positive Cash Generation
Sunrun posted positive cash generation for three consecutive quarters, with $34 million generated in Q4, and expects continued positive cash generation throughout 2025.
Debt Reduction
Sunrun paid down its parent debt by $186 million since Q1 of last year and plans to pay down $100 million or more in recourse debt in 2025.
Strong Grid Service Programs
Sunrun's virtual power plants supported power grids across the country with a peak capacity of nearly 80 megawatts, with 16 grid service programs active and over 20,000 customers participating.
Increased Annual Recurring Revenue
Annual Recurring Revenue stood at over $1.6 billion, up 23% over the same period last year, with an average contract life remaining of nearly 18 years.
Lowlights
Slower Ramp in Domestic Content ITC Adders
The slower ramp in domestic content ITC adder qualification impacted Sunrun's outlook, particularly in the Affiliate Partner business.
Flat Solar Installation Growth
Sunrun expects solar install volumes to be approximately flat in 2025, with growth challenges in the Affiliate Partner business.
Impact of Higher Capital Costs
Sunrun's cash generation outlook was revised down due to higher capital cost assumptions.
Company Guidance
During the Sunrun Fourth Quarter and Full-year 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance for 2025, highlighting several key metrics reflecting their strategic direction and financial health. Sunrun expects cash generation to range between $200 million and $500 million in 2025, with a commitment to pay down $100 million or more in recourse debt. The company plans to maintain storage attachment rates around 66% and anticipates a 44% weighted average investment tax credit (ITC) level. Sunrun achieved a storage attachment rate of 62% in Q4 2024 and installed 392 megawatt-hours of storage, representing a 78% increase year-over-year. They also successfully supported power grids with a combined instantaneous peak of nearly 80 megawatts through their virtual power plants. Sunrun's net earning assets reached $6.8 billion at the end of Q4, up $536 million from the previous quarter. Despite challenges such as rapid increases in interest rates and changes in state regulations, Sunrun remains focused on high-value geographies, cost efficiency, and innovative products to drive cash generation and deliver shareholder value.Sunrun Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Sunrun Appoints Maria Barak as Chief Accounting Officer
Neutral
Feb 12, 2025
On February 6, 2025, Sunrun Inc. appointed Ms. Maria Barak as the Chief Accounting Officer, taking over from Mr. Danny Abajian, who will continue as the Principal Financial Officer. Ms. Barak, a Certified Public Accountant with extensive experience, joined Sunrun in 2017 and has held various positions, including VP, Corporate Controller.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.