Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $784.25M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.82M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 40.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.35
• Revenue Growth: -7.77%
• EPS Growth: -68.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 231
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 664,619,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,651,672
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,817,145
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.11
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 4.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $1.98
• Price Target Upside: 67.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

Olaplex Holdings' score reflects mixed financial performance with declining revenue and profit margins, alongside stable cash flow. The stock shows bearish technical indicators and high valuation, which are concerning given the company's recent challenges. However, strategic priorities and recent corporate governance changes provide some optimism for improvement.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

OLPX reported 4Q24 results that came in ahead of guidance and Street expectations, leading to an adjusted EBITDA beat.

Market Demand

Specialty retail grew +5.7% YOY on strong consumer demand in North America.

Product Innovation

Better-than-expected performance from new launches including the No.5 leave-in conditioner and bond shaper curl salon treatment, indicating successful execution in product development.

Negative Factors

International Business

OLPX highlighted a significant FY outlook reduction driven by expected weaker performance in its international business, requiring a reset for future growth.

Revenue Outlook

Management lowered FY24 revenue outlook mainly on the decision to reset the business to build the right foundation for future growth.

Strategic Challenges

Marketing and sales efforts have not provided the expected lift for OLPX and will require more time to show results.

Olaplex Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Olaplex Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hair care products. The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair. It provides hair care products to professional hair salons, retailers, and everyday consumers. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Santa Barbara, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Olaplex Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of its haircare products, which are distributed via multiple channels including professional salon distributors, specialty retailers, and direct-to-consumer online platforms. A key revenue stream is their professional segment, which involves selling high-performance hair repair treatments to salons, enabling stylists to offer specialized services. Additionally, Olaplex capitalizes on a strong retail presence, selling products through partnerships with major beauty retailers and e-commerce sites. The company's proprietary technology and strong brand loyalty contribute significantly to its earnings, positioning it as a leader in the premium haircare market.

Olaplex Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Olaplex Holdings faces challenges with declining revenue and profit margins, reflected in the income statement. The balance sheet remains stable with improved leverage management, though return on equity is low. Cash flow remains strong despite a decline in operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Olaplex Holdings has experienced a decline in revenue from $458.3 million in 2023 to $422.67 million in 2024, indicating a negative revenue growth rate. The gross profit margin decreased from 69.5% in 2023 to 69.1% in 2024. The net profit margin also declined from 13.4% to 4.6%, reflecting a significant drop in profitability. This is further evidenced by the reduced EBIT and EBITDA margins. Overall, the income statement shows challenges in maintaining revenue and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a stable equity position with an equity ratio of 49.4% in 2024, slightly improved from 48.5% in 2023. The debt-to-equity ratio has decreased to 0.74 from 0.78, indicating better leverage management. However, the return on equity has significantly dropped from 7.3% to 2.2%, highlighting reduced profitability for shareholders. Overall, the balance sheet shows stability but with a need for improved returns on equity.

Cash Flow

Olaplex Holdings shows strong free cash flow with a stable operating cash flow of $143.07 million in 2024, although it decreased from $177.53 million in 2023. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains favorable, indicating good cash generation relative to profits. Despite a decline in operating cash flow, the company maintains positive cash flow dynamics, reflecting effective cash management.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
422.67M	458.30M	704.27M	598.37M	282.25M
	Gross Profit
292.29M	318.63M	519.55M	473.82M	179.59M
	EBIT
66.94M	108.22M	364.39M	334.15M	119.09M
	EBITDA
139.99M	186.77M	398.96M	385.70M	164.97M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
19.52M	61.59M	244.07M	220.78M	39.28M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
585.97M	466.40M	322.81M	186.39M	10.96M
	Total Assets
1.77B	1.74B	1.70B	1.56B	1.33B
	Total Debt
650.46M	655.77M	662.77M	758.20M	775.48M
	Net Debt
64.50M	189.37M	339.96M	571.81M	764.52M
	Total Liabilities
893.32M	895.37M	916.72M	1.04B	802.16M
	Stockholders Equity
874.40M	844.97M	780.96M	524.30M	530.67M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
143.07M	173.92M	254.67M	198.26M	128.95M
	Operating Cash Flow
143.07M	177.53M	255.32M	200.03M	128.97M
	Investing Cash Flow
-4.89M	-3.61M	-2.68M	-6.26M	-1.38B
	Financing Cash Flow
-18.61M	-30.33M	-116.22M	-18.34M	1.26B

Olaplex Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.18
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLPX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.22, below the 50-day MA of 1.35, and below the 200-day MA of 1.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OLPX.

Olaplex Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SBH	71 Outperform	$810.54M	4.77	29.39%	―	0.57%	6.28%
ULTA	71 Outperform	$16.38B	14.24	50.39%	―	0.79%	-2.70%
TDUP	65 Neutral	$395.39M	―	-79.06%	―	-6.95%	-0.73%
OLPX	61 Neutral	$784.25M	40.27	2.27%	―	-7.77%	-68.65%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$6.56B	11.42	3.23%	4.27%	2.37%	-21.19%
BBWI	58 Neutral	$5.94B	7.67	-52.83%	2.89%	-1.63%	-5.94%
YSG	45 Neutral	$439.44M	―	-19.66%	―	-2.11%	-1.39%

Olaplex Holdings Corporate Events

Olaplex Holdings Appoints Pamela Edwards as Director

On March 18, 2025, Olaplex Holdings, Inc. appointed Pamela Edwards as a Class II director and a member of the Audit Committee, effective March 19, 2025. Ms. Edwards brings extensive experience in finance and operations leadership from her previous roles at Citi Trends, L Brands, and other major retail companies, potentially strengthening Olaplex’s strategic and financial oversight.