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NatWest Group (GB:NWG)
LSE:NWG

NatWest Group (NWG) AI Stock Analysis

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NatWest Group

(LSE:NWG)

69Neutral
NatWest Group shows a strong financial foundation with effective debt management and attractive valuation metrics. While cash flow volatility poses a challenge, the stock's technical indicators and low P/E ratio suggest positive growth potential. Recent corporate activities bolster its financial stability, although economic and market risks remain a consideration.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
NatWest Group posted a net profit of £1.2bn, significantly ahead of expectations.
Loan Growth
NatWest is expected to grow loans by 4% per annum in 2025 to 2027, compared to 2-3% for other UK banks.
Revenue Growth
Revenue guidance has been raised to £14.4bn, indicating strong future performance.
Negative Factors
Interest Income
Part of the NII beat is likely already priced-in, potentially limiting share price increase.
Provisions
Higher provisions due to a single name exposure may affect the share price reaction.

NatWest Group (NWG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

NatWest Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNatWest Group (NWG) is a leading banking and financial services organization headquartered in the United Kingdom. It operates primarily in the UK and Ireland, serving over 19 million customers through a range of personal, business, and commercial banking products and services. The group's core offerings include current and savings accounts, mortgages, loans, credit cards, and wealth management services. NatWest Group is committed to supporting its customers' financial needs while maintaining a focus on sustainable and responsible banking practices.
How the Company Makes MoneyNatWest Group generates revenue through a variety of financial services and products. Its primary revenue streams include interest income from loans and mortgages, fees and commissions from banking services such as payment processing and asset management, and income from trading and investment activities. The group also earns money through its insurance services, offering products like home and car insurance. NatWest Group leverages its extensive customer base and market presence to maintain a competitive edge, while strategic partnerships and investments in technology enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency.

NatWest Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NatWest Group exhibits a stable financial position with a strong equity base and effective debt management. Improved profitability is noted in the income statement, but cash flow volatility suggests potential liquidity challenges. The company demonstrates resilience, but needs to stabilize cash flow for enhanced financial health.
Income Statement
65
Positive
NatWest Group's revenue has shown fluctuations over the years, with a slight decline in 2024 compared to 2023. Gross profit margin remains consistent at 100% due to the nature of financial services. Net profit margin improved in 2024 due to increased net income, indicating better cost control. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are unavailable for the latest year, limiting a comprehensive profitability assessment.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The company maintains a strong equity base with a high equity ratio, reflecting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is favorable, showing effective leverage management. Return on equity has improved, suggesting efficient use of shareholders' funds. However, fluctuations in total assets and liabilities over the years indicate potential volatility in the balance sheet.
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
NatWest Group's cash flow has been volatile, with significant variations in operating cash flow. The free cash flow has improved in 2024 but remains modest compared to previous years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests a cautious approach to cash management. The fluctuations highlight potential challenges in maintaining consistent cash flow performance.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
21.27B14.65B14.78B13.16B10.51B10.80B
Gross Profit
24.88B14.65B25.47B13.16B10.51B10.80B
EBIT
2.98B0.007.12B7.66B4.26B-289.00M
EBITDA
1.40B0.007.12B6.00B4.55B-1.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
4.36B4.80B4.39B3.59B3.27B-434.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
89.38B93.05B104.52B145.06B177.76B124.49B
Total Assets
694.24B707.99B692.67B720.05B781.99B799.49B
Total Debt
49.91B0.00127.26B6.26B8.43B9.96B
Net Debt
-38.99B-93.05B-104.52B-138.57B-169.33B-114.53B
Total Liabilities
647.75B668.61B655.49B683.56B8.43B9.96B
Stockholders Equity
45.74B39.35B33.27B36.49B41.80B43.86B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
930.00M694.00M-14.92B-44.24B52.79B28.72B
Operating Cash Flow
930.00M1.77B-13.37B-43.60B53.69B29.09B
Investing Cash Flow
0.00-12.70B-14.69B19.06B3.06B7.55B
Financing Cash Flow
0.00-1.89B-15.67B-10.65B-2.60B90.00M

NatWest Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price423.30
Price Trends
50DMA
438.99
Negative
100DMA
414.03
Positive
200DMA
372.92
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
7.43
Positive
RSI
56.08
Neutral
STOCH
24.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:NWG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 423.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 449.84, below the 50-day MA of 438.99, and above the 200-day MA of 372.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 7.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:NWG.

NatWest Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
£130.63B7.5513.62%6.98%3.98%5.43%
75
Outperform
£38.55B10.189.84%4.53%31.97%-21.96%
72
Outperform
$22.17B8.488.33%2.97%7.29%25.46%
70
Outperform
£35.76B6.949.03%3.31%5.56%31.39%
GBNWG
69
Neutral
£33.48B7.7613.18%5.18%15.69%11.47%
64
Neutral
$12.70B9.089.19%4.89%16.29%-8.64%
63
Neutral
£545.81M13.623.67%-2.57%-54.07%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:NWG
NatWest Group
411.20
147.29
55.81%
GB:STAN
Standard Chartered
878.80
211.77
31.75%
GB:MTRO
Metro Bank
86.10
52.25
154.36%
GB:HSBA
HSBC Holdings
713.20
86.85
13.87%
GB:BARC
Barclays
254.05
70.38
38.32%
GB:LLOY
Lloyds Banking
64.40
14.03
27.85%

NatWest Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 14, 2025 | % Change Since: 0.35% | Next Earnings Date: May 2, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with upgrades in income and return guidance, impressive growth in customer lending, deposits, and non-interest income, and a robust capital position. However, these positives were partially offset by increased impairment charges and higher expected operating expenses in the upcoming quarter.
Highlights
Upgrade in Full-Year Income and Returns Guidance
NatWest upgraded its 2024 income guidance to GBP 14.4 billion and return on tangible equity to greater than 15%, reflecting strong performance across its businesses.
Strong Customer Lending Growth
Customer lending increased by GBP 8.1 billion to GBP 367 billion, with significant contributions from commercial mid-market and large corporate customers.
Impressive Deposit and Asset Growth
Customer deposits rose by GBP 8.3 billion to GBP 427 billion, while private bank assets under management increased by GBP 5.7 billion to GBP 46.5 billion.
Improved Operating Profit and Profitability
Operating profit reached GBP 4.7 billion with attributable profit of GBP 3.3 billion, and earnings per share increased by 12% year-on-year.
Strong Capital Position
The CET1 ratio improved to 13.9%, supported by 197 basis points of capital generation through strong earnings and risk-weighted asset management.
Growth in Non-Interest Income
Non-interest income grew significantly, driven by strong lending and payment fees, as well as foreign exchange gains.
Lowlights
Impairment Charge Increase
An impairment charge of GBP 245 million was recorded in the third quarter, reflecting economic uncertainty and specific credit challenges.
RWA Inflation Expectations
Basel 3.1 is expected to result in RWA inflation of around GBP 8 billion by January 2026, driven by regulatory changes.
Higher Expected Operating Expenses in Q4
Operating expenses are expected to be higher in Q4 compared to the same quarter last year due to further severance and property costs.
Company Guidance
In the NatWest Group Q3 2024 management presentation, the bank announced an upgrade to its full-year income and returns guidance, highlighting strong performance across various metrics. For the first nine months, customer lending grew by GBP 8.1 billion to GBP 367 billion, while deposits increased by GBP 8.3 billion to GBP 427 billion. Income reached GBP 10.8 billion with operating costs at GBP 5.7 billion, resulting in an operating profit of GBP 4.7 billion and an attributable profit of GBP 3.3 billion. The return on tangible equity was 17%, with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.9%. The guidance for 2024 now expects total income, excluding notable items, to be around GBP 14.4 billion, with a return on tangible equity greater than 15%. The company also commented on its strong capital generation capabilities, which allow for continued customer support, business investments, and shareholder distributions.

NatWest Group Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
MFS Increases Stake in NatWest Group
Positive
Apr 9, 2025

Massachusetts Financial Services Company has increased its voting rights in NatWest Group plc to 5.167092%, crossing a significant threshold. This change reflects a strategic investment move by the US-based investment manager, potentially impacting NatWest’s shareholder dynamics and signaling confidence in the company’s market position.

Spark’s Take on GB:NWG Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:NWG is a Outperform.

NatWest Group is positioned well in the banking sector, with a strong financial foundation and attractive valuation metrics. Recent corporate activities bolster its financial stability and strategic focus. However, cash flow volatility remains a concern. The stock shows positive technical trends, suggesting potential for growth.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:NWG stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Updates on Major Holdings Change
Neutral
Apr 9, 2025

NatWest Group plc has released a notification regarding a change in major holdings that was initially overlooked in August 2024. The Massachusetts Financial Services Company, a U.S. Registered Investment Manager, has adjusted its voting rights in NatWest, reducing its stake from 5.12% to 4.96%. This change in holdings could influence NatWest’s shareholder dynamics and reflects the ongoing adjustments in investment strategies by major stakeholders.

Spark’s Take on GB:NWG Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:NWG is a Outperform.

NatWest Group is positioned well in the banking sector, with a strong financial foundation and attractive valuation metrics. Recent corporate activities bolster its financial stability and strategic focus. However, cash flow volatility remains a concern. The stock shows positive technical trends, suggesting potential for growth.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:NWG stock, click here.

Other
NatWest Group Announces Senior Management Share Transactions
Neutral
Apr 1, 2025

NatWest Group plc announced transactions involving its senior management, where several directors purchased ordinary shares in accordance with the company’s shareholding policy, while other executives sold shares on the London Stock Exchange. These transactions reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to align management interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting the company’s stock market perception and stakeholder confidence.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Update
Neutral
Mar 31, 2025

NatWest Group plc announced its total voting rights and capital as of March 31, 2025, in accordance with the Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. The company reported a total of 32,314,090,332 voting rights, which shareholders can use to determine their interest in the company. This update is crucial for stakeholders to understand their voting power and any necessary disclosures under regulatory requirements.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Announces Reduction in Treasury’s Voting Rights
Neutral
Mar 25, 2025

NatWest Group plc has announced a reduction in the percentage of voting rights held by His Majesty’s Treasury (HMT) to 3.95%, following the disposal of 69,943,655 ordinary shares. This change is part of HMT’s ongoing trading plan, which has been in place since July 2021 and was last extended in April 2023. The reduction in voting rights signifies a continued divestment by the UK government, potentially impacting NatWest’s governance and shareholder dynamics.

Shareholder MeetingsStock Buyback
NatWest Group Announces 2025 AGM and Key Resolutions
Neutral
Mar 19, 2025

NatWest Group has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM), scheduled for April 23, 2025, in Edinburgh, with a virtual event on April 10, 2025, allowing shareholders to engage with the company’s leadership. Key resolutions include approving a new directors’ remuneration policy, renewing authority for equity convertible notes issuance, and authorizing share buybacks, which aim to provide the company with flexibility in capital management and align with strategic goals.

Business Operations and Strategy
NatWest CEO to Engage at Morgan Stanley Financials Conference
Neutral
Mar 18, 2025

NatWest Group’s CEO, Paul Thwaite, will be participating in a fireside chat at the Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference, highlighting the company’s engagement with key financial stakeholders. This participation underscores NatWest’s commitment to maintaining transparency and fostering investor relations, potentially impacting its market perception and stakeholder confidence.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Announces Change in Treasury Voting Rights
Neutral
Mar 13, 2025

NatWest Group plc announced a reduction in the percentage of voting rights held by His Majesty’s Treasury (HMT) to 4.82%, following the disposal of 88,938,556 ordinary shares. This change is part of HMT’s ongoing trading plan, which impacts the ownership structure and could influence the company’s governance and strategic decisions.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
NatWest Group Announces Executive Share Awards to Drive Performance
Positive
Mar 10, 2025

NatWest Group has announced the granting of conditional restricted share plan awards and deferred awards to several key executives under its 2024 Employee Share Plan. These awards are part of a strategic initiative to align managerial interests with company performance, with vesting periods extending up to 2032 and subject to performance assessments and malus provisions. The announcement reflects NatWest’s commitment to incentivizing its leadership team, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and market positioning. The awards were granted to executives across various divisions, including commercial, retail, and wealth management, indicating a broad-based approach to leadership retention and motivation.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Feb 28, 2025

NatWest Group plc has announced an update regarding its total voting rights and share capital as of 28 February 2025. The company reported a total of 8,331,628,015 issued shares, with voting rights amounting to 32,244,281,788. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Voting Rights Reduced as Treasury Sells Shares
Neutral
Feb 28, 2025

NatWest Group has announced a reduction in its voting rights held by His Majesty’s Treasury to 5.93%, following the disposal of 85,193,767 ordinary shares. This change reflects the ongoing execution of the Treasury’s trading plan, which was initially announced in July 2021 and extended in April 2023, potentially impacting the company’s governance and shareholder structure.

Private Placements and Financing
NatWest Group Strengthens Capital Base with GBP 750 Million Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 27, 2025

NatWest Group plc has successfully priced its GBP 750 million 7.500% Reset Perpetual Subordinated Contingent Convertible Additional Tier 1 Notes, which are set to close on March 3, 2025. The proceeds from this offering will be used to bolster NatWest’s capital base, enhancing its financial stability and supporting its corporate operations, which could positively impact its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Files Annual Report with SEC, Emphasizes Sustainability
Neutral
Feb 24, 2025

NatWest Group plc has filed its Annual Report on Form 20-F with the US Securities and Exchange Commission as of February 21, 2025. This filing highlights the company’s financial condition, strategic priorities, and climate-related goals, underscoring its commitment to sustainable practices. The announcement may impact stakeholders by providing detailed insights into NatWest’s financial performance and strategic direction, with particular emphasis on sustainability targets and regulatory compliance.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
NatWest Group Releases Final Terms for EUR1 Billion Notes
Neutral
Feb 21, 2025

NatWest Group plc has announced the availability of Final Terms for its EUR1 billion 3.723% Fixed to Fixed Rate Reset Tier 2 Notes due 2035. These notes are issued under the company’s substantial £40 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme. This issuance is part of the company’s ongoing strategy to manage its capital and funding needs, potentially affecting its financial stability and interest from investors.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
NatWest Group Announces Early Redemption of €1.5 Billion Notes
Neutral
Feb 21, 2025

NatWest Group plc has announced the redemption of its €1.5 billion Fixed to Floating Rate Notes due in March 2026, with the redemption scheduled for March 2, 2025. This move, executed under the Call Option – Redemption at the Option of the Issuer, could impact the company’s financial strategy and liquidity management while also affecting stakeholders holding these notes.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Announces New Supplementary Prospectus for Euro Medium Term Note Programme
Positive
Feb 14, 2025

NatWest Group plc has published a supplementary prospectus for its £40 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme, which has been approved by the Financial Conduct Authority. This development reflects NatWest’s ongoing efforts to manage its financial structure and maintain robust funding strategies, potentially enhancing its market positioning and offering diverse investment opportunities for stakeholders.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NatWest Group Reports Robust 2024 Performance with Strategic Growth and Innovation
Positive
Feb 14, 2025

NatWest Group reported a strong financial performance in 2024 with an income of £14.6 billion and return on tangible equity of 17.5%. The company achieved significant growth across customer segments and successfully reduced the UK Government’s shareholding. It reported an attributable profit of £4.5 billion, with dividends per share increasing by 26%, reflecting disciplined growth and strategic focus. Looking forward, NatWest aims to continue its transformation into a more integrated, technology-driven bank, poised for further growth and value creation for shareholders.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NatWest Group Annual Report Highlights Economic and Market Risks
Negative
Feb 14, 2025

NatWest Group’s recent annual report highlights several material risk factors that could impact its future financial results and reputation. These include economic and political uncertainties, interest rate fluctuations, and currency exchange rate volatility, all of which may adversely affect the company’s operations and financial condition.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
UK Government Reduces Stake in NatWest Group
Neutral
Feb 14, 2025

The UK Government, through His Majesty’s Treasury, has reduced its stake in NatWest Group plc to 6.98% following the disposal of 79,844,067 ordinary shares. This move is part of the government’s ongoing trading plan to gradually reduce its ownership in NatWest, which was initially increased during the financial crisis to stabilize the bank. The reduction in government ownership represents a significant step in NatWest’s return to full private ownership, impacting stakeholders by potentially increasing the bank’s appeal to private investors.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Updates Total Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Jan 31, 2025

NatWest Group plc announced its updated total voting rights and capital structure, specifying that the total voting rights as of January 31, 2025, stand at 32,236,181,476. This update aligns with the company’s compliance with the Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, offering shareholders a clear figure to assess their interests in the company. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it ensures transparency and compliance with regulatory requirements, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perception.

Other
NatWest Group Sees Reduction in Treasury Shares
Neutral
Jan 28, 2025

NatWest Group plc announced a change in major holdings with His Majesty’s Treasury reducing its voting rights from 8.90% to 7.98% following the disposal of 74,334,308 ordinary shares. This reduction is part of a trading plan by His Majesty’s Treasury, impacting NatWest’s shareholder composition and reflecting ongoing adjustments in government-held shares in the financial industry.

UK Government Reduces Stake in NatWest Group
Jan 14, 2025

NatWest Group plc has announced a reduction in the UK government’s stake in the company, with the Treasury disposing of 86,371,259 ordinary shares, decreasing its voting rights from 9.99% to 8.90%. This change reflects ongoing efforts by the government to gradually reduce its holdings in NatWest, impacting the company’s ownership structure and potentially influencing future strategic decisions.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.