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Lloyds Banking Group PLC (GB:LLOY)
LSE:LLOY

Lloyds Banking (LLOY) AI Stock Analysis

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GBLloyds Banking
(LSE:LLOY)
75Outperform
Lloyds Banking earns a solid overall score, driven by strong technical indicators and positive earnings call sentiments. Despite financial challenges such as declining profitability and cash flow issues, the stock is buoyed by strategic growth initiatives and attractive valuation metrics. Ongoing efforts to enhance shareholder value through dividends and share buybacks further bolster the outlook, although caution is warranted given potential overbought technical signals.
Positive Factors
Capital Position
Higher earnings and increased confidence in Motor Finance risks have led to an increase in share buy-backs, indicating strong capital position.
Financial Performance
Lloyds is expected to beat its own guidance for net interest income, indicating strong financial performance.
Negative Factors
Motor Finance Litigation
There are significant downside risks related to the motor finance commission issue pending a Supreme Court decision.

Lloyds Banking (LLOY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Lloyds Banking Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLloyds is a retail and commercial bank headquartered in the United Kingdom. The bank operates via three business segments: retail, commercial banking, and insurance and wealth. In retail, Lloyds offers primarily mortgages (66% of loan portfolio), credit cards, and current accounts to its customers. Its commercial banking operation provides lending, transaction banking, working capital management, and debt capital market services to large corporates and financial institutions in the U.K. Insurance and wealth rounds out the product lineup with life and property insurance as well as pension solutions and high-net-worth asset-management services.
How the Company Makes MoneyLloyds Banking Group generates revenue primarily through interest income, which is the difference between the interest it earns on loans and the interest it pays on deposits. This is a core part of its retail and commercial banking operations. Additionally, the company earns fees and commissions from a variety of financial services, including mortgage origination, credit cards, and wealth management services. Insurance and investment products offered through Scottish Widows also contribute to its revenue streams. Lloyds Banking Group leverages strong customer relationships and a large distribution network across the UK to maintain and grow its market share. Strategic partnerships and a focus on digital transformation also play a role in enhancing revenue opportunities and operational efficiency.

Lloyds Banking Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lloyds Banking displays a stable revenue base and strong gross profit margins typical for the banking industry. However, declining net profit margins and revenue growth, combined with increased leverage and deteriorating cash flow performance, signal financial challenges that need addressing to improve stability and shareholder returns.
Income Statement
75
Positive
The company has maintained a stable revenue base with slight fluctuations over the years. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 100%, indicating no cost of goods sold, which is typical for banking. However, the net profit margin decreased from 29.7% in 2023 to 25.2% in 2024, showing a potential decline in profitability. The EBIT margin in 2024 was 100%, but it decreased from the previous year. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a recent decline of about 4.6% from 2023 to 2024, indicating potential challenges in income generation.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio increased from 1.99 in 2023 to 3.37 in 2024, signaling rising leverage that could pose risks if not managed carefully. The return on equity decreased from 11.6% in 2023 to 11.2% in 2024, indicating slight pressure on shareholder returns. The equity ratio also decreased to 4.4% in 2024, down from 5.3% in 2023, reflecting a higher reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Lloyds Banking experienced a negative free cash flow of -9.9 billion in 2024, a significant drop from 1.35 billion in 2023, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio turned negative, showing inefficiency in converting profits into cash flows. This raises concerns about the company’s ability to cover its operational needs without external financing.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
17.57B18.41B18.21B16.32B15.13B
Gross Profit
17.57B19.21B18.21B16.32B15.13B
EBIT
17.57B11.05B10.52B6.80B1.16B
EBITDA
0.0010.41B7.17B9.72B3.96B
Net Income Common Stockholders
4.42B5.46B5.46B5.78B1.32B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
0.0079.02B91.63B76.57B73.56B
Total Assets
906.70B881.45B877.83B886.52B871.27B
Total Debt
133.16B93.67B84.55B84.66B101.66B
Net Debt
133.16B-79.02B-7.08B8.09B28.10B
Total Liabilities
867.00B834.09B830.31B84.66B101.66B
Stockholders Equity
39.52B47.16B47.28B52.92B49.18B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-9.88B1.35B18.16B3.39B24.27B
Operating Cash Flow
-5.51B6.81B22.01B6.62B27.17B
Investing Cash Flow
-7.69B-9.82B510.00M-2.54B-4.00B
Financing Cash Flow
-4.81B-8.46B-6.61B-3.23B-5.32B

Lloyds Banking Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price73.08
Price Trends
50DMA
61.37
Positive
100DMA
58.51
Positive
200DMA
57.69
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.24
Negative
RSI
77.34
Negative
STOCH
86.31
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:LLOY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 73.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.76, above the 50-day MA of 61.37, and above the 200-day MA of 57.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.34 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:LLOY.

Lloyds Banking Risk Analysis

Lloyds Banking disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lloyds Banking reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Lloyds Banking Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
£163.15B9.3812.96%5.29%3.98%5.43%
75
Outperform
£43.29B11.3511.19%4.01%31.97%-21.96%
75
Outperform
£44.68B8.638.78%2.87%5.56%31.39%
64
Neutral
$14.34B10.619.28%4.07%18.04%-9.54%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:LLOY
Lloyds Banking
71.42
25.38
55.13%
SCBFF
Standard Chartered
15.70
7.48
91.00%
GB:BARC
Barclays
292.40
125.44
75.13%
GB:HSBA
HSBC Holdings
928.40
380.62
69.48%
GB:MTRO
Metro Bank
86.90
52.65
153.72%

Lloyds Banking Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 20, 2025 | % Change Since: 16.30% | Next Earnings Date: Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, robust growth in mortgages, deposits, and structural hedge income, alongside a disciplined cost-saving approach. However, the significant provision for motor finance and a decline in commercial lending present notable challenges. Despite these challenges, the company's strategic initiatives and financial metrics indicate a positive outlook.
Highlights
Strong Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns
Lloyds reported a statutory profit after tax of £4.5 billion, or £5 billion excluding the Q4 motor provision. This includes a return on tangible equity of 12.3%, or 14% ex-motor. The company also announced a 15% increase in the ordinary dividend and a share buyback of £1.7 billion.
Record Mortgage Lending
Lloyds achieved a 20% share of new mortgage lending in 2024, growing the mortgage book by £8 billion excluding legacy book securitizations, supported by strategic initiatives and a recovering market.
Structural Hedge Income Growth
Hedge income in 2024 was £4.2 billion, which was £0.8 billion higher than 2023. The company expects hedge income to increase by £1.2 billion in 2025 and a further £1.5 billion in 2026.
Strong Deposit Growth
Total deposits increased by £11 billion, or 2%, reaching £483 billion. The company saw a £7 billion growth in deposits in Q4, driven by retail savings and current accounts.
Cost Efficiency and Savings
Lloyds delivered £1.2 billion of gross cost savings in 2024, more than offsetting inflationary pressures and supporting investment in strategic initiatives.
Lowlights
Motor Finance Provision
A £700 million provision was taken in Q4 for potential remediation costs relating to motor commission arrangements, bringing the total provision to £1.15 billion due to a recent Court of Appeal judgment.
Commercial Lending Decline
Commercial lending balances decreased by £1 billion in 2024, although they increased when excluding government-backed lending repayments.
Rising Operating Costs
Operating costs increased by 3% year-on-year to £9.4 billion, driven by inflationary pressures and continued investment in strategic initiatives.
Company Guidance
The guidance provided during the call emphasized a robust financial performance for 2024, with significant shareholder distributions and strategic achievements. Key metrics included a statutory profit after tax of £4.5 billion, net income of £17.1 billion, and an ordinary dividend increase of 15%. The company implemented a share buyback of £1.7 billion, despite a £700 million provision for Motor finance commissions. The return on tangible equity was 12.3%, or 14% excluding the motor provision. The net interest margin was 2.95%, and operating costs rose by 3% to £9.4 billion, aligning with guidance. Asset quality remained solid with an impairment charge of £433 million, reflecting an asset quality ratio of 10 basis points. The company is confident in achieving its 2025 guidance, expecting net interest income of around £13.5 billion, operating costs of approximately £9.7 billion, an asset quality ratio of circa 25 basis points, and capital generation of around 175 basis points. Looking ahead, it reaffirmed its targets for 2026, projecting a return on tangible equity greater than 15% and capital generation exceeding 200 basis points.

Lloyds Banking Corporate Events

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lloyds Banking Group Advances Share Buyback Strategy
Positive
Mar 4, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group plc announced the purchase of over 10 million of its own ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. This move, executed through Morgan Stanley, reflects the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares in circulation, potentially increasing earnings per share and strengthening its market position.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lloyds Banking Group Publishes Final Terms for Euro Medium Term Notes
Neutral
Mar 4, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group PLC has announced the publication of the final terms for two series of notes under its Euro Medium Term Note Programme. These include EUR 1 billion fixed rate notes due in 2036 and EUR 750 million floating rate notes due in 2028. This issuance is part of their strategy to manage long-term funding and liquidity, potentially impacting their financial stability and attractiveness to investors.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lloyds Banking Group Advances Share Buyback Program
Positive
Mar 3, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group PLC announced the purchase of 5,674,592 of its ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares were acquired at a volume-weighted average price of 72.7577 pence and will be canceled, indicating the company’s strategy to return value to shareholders and manage its capital structure effectively.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lloyds Banking Group Enhances Shareholder Value with Share Buyback
Positive
Feb 28, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group PLC announced the purchase of 4,402,179 of its ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares were acquired at a volume-weighted average price of 72.0962 pence per share and will be canceled, reflecting the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Lloyds Banking Group Announces Voting Share Details
Neutral
Feb 28, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group has announced the total number of voting shares as of February 28, 2025, which stands at 60,757,294,380 ordinary shares. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements under the Financial Conduct Authority’s rules, impacting how they manage their investments and interests in the company.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lloyds Banking Group Advances Share Buyback Program
Positive
Feb 27, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group PLC has announced the purchase of over 5.3 million of its ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares, bought from Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, will be cancelled, reflecting the company’s strategy to return capital to shareholders and potentially enhance shareholder value. This move is part of a broader financial strategy that may impact the company’s stock performance and market perception.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Lloyds Banking Group Executive Engages in Share Transaction
Neutral
Feb 27, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group announced that Joanna Harris, CEO of Mass Affluent, executed a transaction involving the acquisition and subsequent disposal of 17,177 ordinary shares. This transaction was conducted under the Lloyds Banking Group Sharesave Scheme 2017, with shares acquired at 39.40 pence each and sold at 68.22 pence each. The transaction reflects compliance with the company’s shareholding policy and highlights the ongoing engagement of senior management with the company’s equity programs.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lloyds Banking Group Enhances Shareholder Value with Share Buyback
Positive
Feb 25, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group PLC announced the purchase of 4,983,700 of its ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. These shares were bought from Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc at a volume-weighted average price of 68.0125 pence per share. The company intends to cancel these shares, which is a strategic move to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lloyds Banking Group Enhances Shareholder Value with Share Buyback
Positive
Feb 24, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group PLC announced the purchase of over 13 million of its ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. This move, executed through Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, reflects the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares in circulation, potentially increasing the value of remaining shares. The cancellation of these shares aligns with regulatory requirements and demonstrates Lloyds’ commitment to maintaining a robust capital structure.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Lloyds Banking Group Executive Sells Shares, Maintains Compliance
Neutral
Feb 24, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group PLC announced that Andrew Walton, the Chief Sustainability Officer and Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, sold 75,300 ordinary shares at 66.3633 pence each on February 21, 2025, through the London Stock Exchange. This transaction is part of routine managerial responsibilities, and Walton remains compliant with the company’s shareholding policy, indicating a stable adherence to corporate governance practices.

Stock Buyback
Lloyds Banking Group Enhances Shareholder Value Through Share Buyback
Positive
Feb 21, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group announced the purchase of 7,762,503 of its ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. This move, executed through Morgan Stanley, is aimed at enhancing shareholder value by reducing the number of outstanding shares, which is expected to positively impact the company’s stock performance and financial metrics.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lloyds Banking Group Publishes Supplementary Prospectus for £25 Billion Note Programme
Neutral
Feb 21, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group has announced the approval and publication of a Supplementary Prospectus related to its £25 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme. This development indicates the group’s ongoing efforts to manage its capital structure and funding strategies effectively, which is crucial for maintaining its competitive position in the financial sector.

Stock Buyback
Lloyds Banking Group Announces £1.7 Billion Share Buyback
Positive
Feb 21, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group has initiated a significant share buyback program, aiming to repurchase up to £1.7 billion of its ordinary shares. This move is designed to reduce the company’s share capital and is being executed with the assistance of Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc. The buyback is expected to enhance shareholder value by decreasing the number of shares outstanding, thus potentially increasing the earnings per share.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Lloyds Banking Group Files 2024 Annual Report with SEC
Neutral
Feb 21, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group has filed its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2024, with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This filing is a key regulatory requirement and provides stakeholders with comprehensive insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction for the past year, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholders’ decision-making.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Lloyds Banking Group Submits 2024 Annual Report
Neutral
Feb 20, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group plc has announced the submission of its Annual Report and Accounts for the year ended 31 December 2024 to the National Storage Mechanism, in compliance with UK Listing Rule 6.4.1. This report will be available for inspection and provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction. The filing is significant for stakeholders as it offers a detailed overview of Lloyds Banking’s operations, financial health, and future plans, potentially impacting investor decisions and market perceptions.

Stock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lloyds Banking Group Exceeds 2024 Revenue Targets with Strong Financial Performance
Positive
Feb 20, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group announced strong financial results for 2024, exceeding revenue targets and demonstrating robust cost management. The company reported a statutory profit after tax of £4.5 billion, with total shareholder distributions amounting to £3.6 billion. Lloyds highlighted significant growth in customer deposits and loans, alongside successful strategic initiatives that generated additional revenues and cost savings. The board recommended an increased dividend and announced a share buyback program, reflecting confidence in future performance and continued commitment to shareholder returns. Looking ahead, Lloyds aims to further enhance its franchise capabilities, targeting over £1.5 billion in additional revenues by 2026 through strategic initiatives.

Business Operations and Strategy
Lloyds Banking Group Announces Early Redemption of €1.5 Billion Notes
Neutral
Feb 18, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group has announced the early redemption of its €1.5 billion Fixed Rate Reset Callable Notes initially due in 2026. The redemption, scheduled for 1 April 2025, reflects the company’s strategic decision to manage its financial obligations effectively, potentially influencing its liquidity and capital management strategies. This move is anticipated to streamline Lloyds’ debt profile, providing clarity to stakeholders about the company’s fiscal direction.

Business Operations and Strategy
Lloyds Banking Group to Redeem EUR 309 Million Subordinated Notes
Neutral
Feb 17, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group has announced the redemption of its EUR 309,088,000 Dated Subordinated Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes due 2030, which will occur on 18 March 2025. This move, which involves redeeming the notes at their Optional Redemption Amount along with accrued interest, reflects the company’s active management of its debt portfolio and may have implications for its financial strategy and stakeholder interests.

Business Operations and Strategy
Lloyds Banking Group Aligns Leadership Interests with Share Incentive Plan
Positive
Feb 11, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group PLC announced the acquisition of partnership and matching shares under its Share Incentive Plan for February 2025, involving several key executives. This initiative reflects ongoing efforts to align the interests of its leadership with company performance, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence and reinforcing its commitment to strategic goals.

Delistings and Listing ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lloyds Banking Group to Redeem $1 Billion Senior Notes Early
Neutral
Feb 3, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group plc announced the redemption of its $1 billion 3.511% Senior Callable Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Notes due in 2026. This financial move involves redeeming the notes at their principal amount along with any accrued interest by March 18, 2025, effectively ending the listing of these notes on the New York Stock Exchange. This measure is part of the group’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its financial liabilities and market operations.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Lloyds Banking Group Announces Share Voting Rights
Neutral
Jan 31, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group PLC has announced that, as of January 31, 2025, it has issued a total of 60,753,502,794 ordinary shares, all of which have voting rights exercisable at general meetings. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their reporting obligations under the Financial Conduct Authority’s rules, impacting how they notify changes in their shareholding interests.

Lloyds Banking Group Aligns Executive Interests with Share Incentive Plan
Jan 13, 2025

Lloyds Banking Group has announced the acquisition of Partnership and Matching Shares under their Share Incentive Plan for several key executives, including the CEO of Insurance, Pensions & Investments, and the Chief Risk Officer. This move is part of their regular monthly transactions aimed at aligning the interests of the company’s leadership with those of shareholders, enhancing long-term value creation. The transactions took place outside of a trading venue on January 9, 2025, and reflect the ongoing commitment of the management team to the company’s strategic objectives and shareholder alignment.

Lloyds Banking Group Updates on Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Dec 31, 2024

Lloyds Banking Group PLC announced that as of December 31, 2024, the total number of shares issued with voting rights is 60,617,012,971 ordinary shares. This figure is crucial for shareholders who need to calculate their interests or changes in their interests in the company, in compliance with the Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

Lloyds Banking Announces Executive Share Acquisitions for Q4 2024
Dec 20, 2024

Lloyds Banking Group PLC announced transactions involving its managerial executives under the Group’s Fixed Share Award for the fourth quarter of 2024. Charlie Nunn, Group Chief Executive, and William Chalmers, Chief Financial Officer, acquired 268,341 and 128,804 shares, respectively, with the shares to be released over a three-year period. The transactions highlight the company’s commitment to aligning managerial interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting the overall market perception and stakeholder confidence in the company’s strategic direction.

Lloyds Banking Announces Redemption of $1 Billion Notes
Dec 19, 2024

Lloyds Banking Group has announced its decision to redeem $1 billion in 2.438% Senior Callable Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Notes due in 2026, with the redemption set for February 5, 2025. This move will result in the delisting of the notes from the New York Stock Exchange and signifies a strategic financial decision impacting its debt structure, potentially affecting stakeholders’ perceptions and the Group’s future financial planning.

Lloyds Banking Group Discloses Share Transactions Under Incentive Plan
Dec 11, 2024

Lloyds Banking Group announced the acquisition of Partnership Shares and the award of Matching Shares under its Share Incentive Plan for individuals holding managerial responsibilities. This move signals the company’s continued commitment to aligning the interests of its executives with the broader goals of the organization, potentially enhancing stakeholder confidence and aligning management activities with shareholder interests.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.