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HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)
:DINO
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HF Sinclair Corporation
(NYSE:DINO)
66Neutral
Positive Factors
Business Diversification
The company's diversification and balance sheet should serve it well in a potential weaker refining tape.
Growth Initiatives
Growth initiatives in Retail are in full force, with contracts signed to convert 168 stores to branded sites, aiming for 10% annual growth.
Operational Performance
DINO continues to do a good job improving its operating performance across its business segments and the 3Q results in a weak refining environment highlight the strength of its portfolio.
Negative Factors
Earnings and Financial Performance
The price target for HF Sinclair Corporation has been lowered from $43.00 to $35.00.
Margin and Volume Declines
Refining was weaker vs. estimates and consensus, with lower volumes and margin due to weak market conditions.
Refining Segment Challenges
DINO's refining segment continues to face headwinds from inland seasonal dynamics and tight crude quality differentials.
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.32B
Dividend Yield6.03%
Average Volume (3M)4.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.4
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth-10.58%
EPS Growth-90.08%
CountryUS
Employees5,297
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength87
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.82
Shares Outstanding188,407,400
10 Day Avg. Volume3,880,722
30 Day Avg. Volume4,053,866
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.22
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-11.30
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.13Price Target Upside28.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
HF Sinclair Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company. It produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, specialty and modified asphalt, and others. The company also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming; and markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, it supplies fuels to approximately 1,300 independent Sinclair-branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 300 additional locations, as well as engages in the growing renewables business. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum industry. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyHF Sinclair Corporation generates revenue primarily through its refining segment, which involves processing crude oil into various refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The company owns and operates several refineries that are strategically located, allowing it to efficiently supply products to key markets. In addition to refining, HF Sinclair also earns income from its renewable energy operations, producing renewable diesel and other environmentally friendly fuels. The company's revenue streams are further diversified through its specialty products division, which markets lubricants and other petroleum derivatives. Strategic partnerships and supply agreements with other energy firms, as well as a focus on improving operational efficiencies, also contribute significantly to its earnings.
HF Sinclair Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
HF Sinclair Corporation exhibits strong equity management and improved gross margins but faces challenges in revenue growth and sustaining profitability. The decrease in cash flow poses a potential risk to funding future operations and investments. The financial position indicates a need for strategic adjustments to enhance revenue and cash flow stability in the fossil fuels industry.Income Statement
HF Sinclair Corporation has shown volatile revenue trends with a decline in total revenue from $38.2 billion in 2022 to $28.58 billion in 2024, indicating a -25.2% revenue growth rate for the latest year. Gross profit margin improved significantly from 2023 to 2024, with gross profit equaling total revenue, suggesting potential cost management improvements. However, the net profit margin in 2024 has decreased compared to previous years, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability.70
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a positive equity position with an equity ratio of 55.7% in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio reduced substantially from 0.30 in 2023 to 0.08 in 2024, indicating improved leverage management. Return on Equity (ROE) decreased over the years, reflecting reduced profitability relative to equity. The overall balance sheet shows strength in equity but highlights potential risks in sustaining profitability.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow decreased from $2.3 billion in 2023 to $1.11 billion in 2024. Free cash flow also decreased significantly, indicating reduced capability for internal funding of operations and investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio in 2024 is 6.27, suggesting efficient conversion of net income to cash. However, the decline in cash flow metrics raises concerns about the company’s ability to sustain and fund growth initiatives.65
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 28.58B | 31.96B | 38.20B | 18.39B | 11.18B | Gross Profit |
| 3.21B | 5.14B | 6.82B | 2.63B | 1.43B | EBIT |
| 261.00M | 2.20B | 4.05B | 262.10M | -188.45M | EBITDA |
| 1.22B | 3.12B | 4.76B | 1.43B | -103.86M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 177.00M | 1.59B | 2.92B | 558.32M | -514.90M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 800.00M | 1.35B | 1.67B | 234.44M | 1.37B | Total Assets |
| 16.64B | 17.72B | 18.13B | 12.92B | 11.51B | Total Debt |
| 728.00M | 3.10B | 3.56B | 3.44B | 3.43B | Net Debt |
| -72.00M | 1.74B | 1.89B | 3.20B | 2.07B | Total Liabilities |
| 7.30B | 7.48B | 8.11B | 6.62B | 5.78B | Stockholders Equity |
| 9.28B | 10.17B | 9.24B | 5.69B | 5.17B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 640.00M | 1.91B | 3.25B | -406.73M | 127.77M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.11B | 2.30B | 3.78B | 406.68M | 457.93M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -468.00M | -371.32M | -774.49M | -1.33B | -330.16M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -1.18B | -2.24B | -1.56B | -211.80M | 353.23M |
HF Sinclair Corporation Technical Analysis
Neutral
33.55
Price Trends
34.73
Negative
36.30
Negative
41.27
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.36
Negative
49.92
Neutral
72.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DINO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.62, below the 50-day MA of 34.73, and below the 200-day MA of 41.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DINO.
HF Sinclair Corporation Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $51.56B | 25.32 | 7.27% | 3.67% | -2.81% | -68.00% | |
67 Neutral | $46.45B | 14.73 | 16.33% | 2.33% | -6.70% | -57.85% | |
66 Neutral | $6.32B | 36.42 | 1.78% | 6.03% | -10.58% | -90.08% | |
63 Neutral | $41.51B | 15.38 | 10.86% | 3.29% | -10.37% | -65.69% | |
58 Neutral | $9.28B | 5.49 | -6.28% | 7.46% | -0.20% | -73.68% | |
47 Neutral | $992.33M | ― | -108.21% | 6.30% | -28.68% | -4373.94% | |
46 Neutral | $2.22B | ― | -8.87% | 5.47% | -13.59% | -127.47% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
33.55
-23.27
-40.95%
DK
Delek US Holdings
16.04
-13.10
-44.96%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
149.81
-43.08
-22.33%
PSX
Phillips 66
126.57
-27.08
-17.62%
VLO
Valero Energy
134.52
-28.46
-17.46%
PBF
PBF Energy
19.35
-34.86
-64.31%
HF Sinclair Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 20, 2025 | % Change Since: -9.93% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted strong performances in the Marketing and Midstream segments, significant cost reductions, and robust shareholder returns, juxtaposed against a net loss and challenges in the Refining and Renewables segments in the fourth quarter. Despite some financial setbacks, the strategic initiatives and operational improvements suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook.Highlights
Record EBITDA in Marketing and Midstream
The Marketing segment delivered a record annual EBITDA of $75 million, a 23% increase over 2023. The Midstream segment reported record annual adjusted EBITDA of $447 million, up 14% year-over-year.
Significant Reduction in Operating Expenses
In refining, annual adjusted operating expenses were lowered to $7.98 per throughput barrel, a reduction of $0.37 per barrel year-over-year. Renewables achieved a 24% year-over-year reduction in annual operating expenses per gallon.
Strong Shareholder Returns
Returned over $1 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases. Reduced share count by over 57 million shares, representing 71% of the shares issued for both the Sinclair and HEP transactions.
Improved Safety Performance
Achieved best-ever results for personal safety in 2024, beating the previous record by over 40%.
Lowlights
Net Loss for Fourth Quarter
Reported a fourth quarter net loss attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders of $214 million or negative $1.14 per share.
Decreased Refining Segment EBITDA
Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA for the Refining segment was negative $169 million compared to $276 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, driven by lower margins and sales volumes.
Challenges in Renewables Segment
Reported adjusted EBITDA of negative $9 million for the fourth quarter, impacted by a $20 million increase to the cost of sales due to high-priced inventory drawdown.
Company Guidance
During the HF Sinclair Corporation’s Fourth Quarter 2024 Conference Call, CEO Tim Go highlighted significant accomplishments and provided guidance for future performance. The company enhanced its operational reliability, achieving a personal safety record with a 40% improvement over previous results. The heavy turnaround workload was completed on schedule, resulting in increased utilization and higher refinery throughputs year-over-year. HF Sinclair achieved record EBITDA in both its marketing ($75 million, a 23% increase over 2023) and midstream ($447 million, up 14% year-over-year) segments. The Lubricants and Specialties business delivered $330 million in adjusted EBITDA despite $45 million in FIFO headwinds. The company's refining segment set records for premium gasoline, jet fuel, and hydrogen production, while reducing operating expenses by $0.37 per barrel year-over-year. HF Sinclair returned over $1 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases. Looking ahead, the company plans to continue growing its branded marketing sites by 10% annually and focus on reliability improvements, optimization, and integration to drive profitable growth.HF Sinclair Corporation Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
HF Sinclair Highlights Strategic Initiatives in Energy Transition
Positive
Mar 21, 2025
In March 2025, HF Sinclair Corporation presented to investors, highlighting its strategic initiatives and operational capabilities across various segments. The company has made significant investments in renewable diesel projects, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and supporting alternative energy systems. HF Sinclair’s focus on sustainability and innovation positions it as a key player in the energy transition, with implications for its market positioning and stakeholder engagement.
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
HF Sinclair Redeems $195 Million in Senior Notes
Neutral
Feb 11, 2025
On February 11, 2025, HF Sinclair Corporation announced the redemption of $195 million of its outstanding 5.875% Senior Notes due 2026, scheduled for February 21, 2025. This strategic move is funded by proceeds from a recent $1.4 billion senior notes offering, aimed at optimizing the company’s financial structure by ceasing interest accrual on the redeemed notes post-redemption date, thus ceasing all rights for note holders except to receive the redemption price.
Private Placements and Financing
HF Sinclair Plans Redemption of HollyFrontier Notes
Neutral
Jan 28, 2025
On January 27, 2025, HF Sinclair Corporation announced its plan to redeem all outstanding 5.875% Senior Notes due 2026 of its subsidiary, HollyFrontier Corporation. The redemption, scheduled for February 16, 2025, will be funded by the proceeds from HF Sinclair’s recent senior notes offering, ending the accrual of interest and terminating the rights of the note holders after the Redemption Date.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.