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PBF Energy (PBF)
NYSE:PBF

PBF Energy (PBF) AI Stock Analysis

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PBPBF Energy
(NYSE:PBF)
46Neutral
PBF Energy is currently facing significant financial challenges, marked by declining revenue, profitability issues, and cash flow difficulties. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative momentum indicators. Valuation is pressured by a negative P/E ratio, though the dividend yield offers some mitigation. Despite strategic initiatives to improve cost efficiency and a constructive market outlook, current financial losses and negative technical trends significantly impact the overall score.
Positive Factors
Cost Management
PBF made public the target of delivering $200m in run-rate cost savings by year-end 2025 through significant energy reduction and maintenance optimization.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
PBF reported EBITDA/FCF misses versus consensus, with estimated EBITDA losses in all regions during a challenging quarter for refining.
Operational Challenges
A fire at the Martinez plant has resulted in a full shutdown with unquantified downtime, affecting operational performance.

PBF Energy (PBF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

PBF Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPBF Energy, Inc. engages in the operation of a petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products in the United States. It operates through the Refining and Logistics segments. The Refining segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products. The Logistics.segment owns, leases, operates, develops, and acquires crude oil and refined petroleum products terminals, pipelines, storage facilities, and similar logistics assets. The company was founded on March 1, 2008 and is headquartered in Parsippany, NJ.
How the Company Makes MoneyPBF Energy generates revenue primarily through the refining and sale of petroleum products. The company purchases crude oil and other feedstocks, processes them into refined products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and lubricants, and sells these products to wholesale and retail customers. PBF Energy's logistics segment also contributes to its revenue by providing transportation and storage services for crude oil and refined products. Key revenue streams include the sale of refined products to various markets, leveraging strategic partnerships and contracts with suppliers and distributors to optimize pricing and supply chain efficiencies. Additionally, PBF Energy benefits from market conditions such as fluctuations in crude oil prices and refining margins, which can impact its profitability.

PBF Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
PBF Energy faces considerable financial challenges, as reflected in its recent performance. The income statement shows declining revenue and profitability, while the balance sheet indicates fluctuating leverage and moderate stability. Cash flow challenges highlight the need for strategic cash management. Addressing these issues will be key to improving the company's financial standing in the volatile fossil fuel industry.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
PBF Energy has experienced significant fluctuations in its income statement, with a sharp decline in revenue and profitability in 2024 compared to prior years. The gross profit margin turned negative in 2024, indicating cost challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a significant decline from 2023 to 2024. The absence of net income in 2024 and negative EBIT highlight the company's recent struggles with profitability.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows mixed signals. While stockholders' equity remains relatively stable, the debt-to-equity ratio has been volatile, suggesting fluctuating leverage levels. The equity ratio indicates moderate financial stability, but the industry's capital-intensive nature poses inherent risks. The company's ability to maintain equity levels while managing debt will be crucial for future stability.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow from operations has decreased significantly, indicating potential challenges in generating cash from core activities. Free cash flow growth has also been negative, reflecting capital expenditure pressures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates a disconnect in 2024 due to the absence of net income. Managing cash flow effectively will be critical for future financial health.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
33.12B38.32B46.83B27.25B15.12B
Gross Profit
-372.20M2.40B4.68B887.20M-1.63B
EBIT
-699.00M2.95B4.15B597.20M-1.42B
EBITDA
-2.40M3.52B4.31B1.11B-510.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-533.80M2.14B2.88B315.50M-1.33B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
536.10M1.78B2.20B1.34B1.61B
Total Assets
12.70B14.39B13.55B11.64B10.50B
Total Debt
2.30B2.04B2.64B5.01B5.58B
Net Debt
1.77B260.70M438.30M3.67B3.97B
Total Liabilities
7.02B7.76B8.49B9.11B8.30B
Stockholders Equity
5.54B6.49B5.06B2.53B2.20B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
43.40M678.90M4.14B228.20M-827.80M
Operating Cash Flow
43.40M1.34B4.77B477.30M-631.60M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.04B-338.60M-1.01B-388.50M-1.03B
Financing Cash Flow
-249.30M-1.42B-2.90B-356.80M2.45B

PBF Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price20.06
Price Trends
50DMA
26.30
Negative
100DMA
28.37
Negative
200DMA
33.22
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.01
Positive
RSI
27.06
Positive
STOCH
14.01
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.91, below the 50-day MA of 26.30, and below the 200-day MA of 33.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.06 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PBF.

PBF Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
PSPSX
71
Outperform
$49.86B24.497.27%3.76%-2.81%-68.00%
MPMPC
67
Neutral
$44.58B14.1514.14%2.43%-6.70%-57.84%
VLVLO
63
Neutral
$40.19B14.8710.87%3.40%-10.35%-65.68%
57
Neutral
$8.34B5.35-5.98%7.29%0.20%-69.45%
CVCVI
55
Neutral
$1.81B258.330.90%11.12%-17.69%-99.09%
DKDK
47
Neutral
$979.58M-97.43%6.41%-28.68%-4373.94%
PBPBF
46
Neutral
$2.37B-9.63%5.11%-13.59%-127.47%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PBF
PBF Energy
20.06
-26.31
-56.74%
CVI
CVR Energy
18.12
-12.93
-41.64%
DK
Delek US Holdings
15.23
-8.79
-36.59%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
135.12
-36.41
-21.23%
PSX
Phillips 66
119.74
-22.12
-15.59%
VLO
Valero Energy
121.76
-18.52
-13.20%

PBF Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 13, 2025 | % Change Since: -23.67% | Next Earnings Date: May 2, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed sentiment with a strong emphasis on PBF Energy's financial resilience and strategic cost-saving initiatives, while acknowledging significant challenges such as the Martinez refinery fire and financial losses in the fourth quarter.
Highlights
Strong Financial Position
PBF Energy started 2024 with the strongest financial position in its history, maintaining an under-levered balance sheet that provides flexibility to weather challenging markets.
Business Improvement Initiatives
PBF Energy has launched the Refining Business Improvement Program targeting over $200 million in run rate cost savings by the end of 2025, focusing on energy usage, turnarounds, procurement practices, capital planning, and maintenance.
Shareholder Returns
PBF Energy returned approximately $60 million to shareholders in the fourth quarter through share repurchases and dividends, completing $1 billion in share repurchases since December 2022.
Constructive Market Outlook
The company expects a balanced global refining supply and product demand environment in 2025, with net capacity additions expected to match product demand growth.
Lowlights
Martinez Refinery Fire Incident
A fire occurred at the Martinez refinery during planned maintenance, leading to a complete shutdown of the refinery. The extent of the damage and the timeline for repairs are still being assessed.
Fourth Quarter Financial Loss
PBF Energy reported an adjusted net loss of $2.82 per share and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $249.7 million for the fourth quarter, reflecting weak market conditions and poor crude differentials.
Renewable Diesel Production Challenges
The St. Bernard Renewables facility reported a $4.8 million loss in the fourth quarter, and first-quarter production is expected to decrease due to a planned catalyst change.
Company Guidance
During the call, PBF Energy provided guidance that reflects a challenging market environment, with a focus on achieving a $200 million run-rate cost savings by the end of 2025 through their Refining Business Improvement Program. This initiative targets areas such as energy usage and turnarounds, which represent about 30% to 50% of their overall savings goal. Despite reporting an adjusted net loss of $2.82 per share and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $249.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2024, the company expects a constructive outlook for 2025, with refining capacity additions projected to be in the range of 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day, aligning closely with the anticipated product demand growth of 750,000 barrels per day. Additionally, PBF Energy's financial strategy includes maintaining a strong balance sheet, which stood at approximately $921 million of net debt and a net debt-to-capital ratio of 16%. The company also highlighted its commitment to shareholder returns, having completed approximately $1 billion in share repurchases since December 2022, equating to over 17% of outstanding shares at the beginning of the program.

PBF Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
PBF Energy Releases 2025 Financial Guidance and Plans
Neutral
Jan 3, 2025

PBF Energy Inc. released its financial guidance for fiscal year 2025, detailing expected throughput levels across its various regional operations and anticipated operating expenses. The company outlines its plans for capital expenditures, maintenance, and turnaround projects, highlighting the strategic focus on managing its investment in St. Bernard Renewables LLC and the challenges posed by market conditions and regulatory factors.

Executive/Board Changes
PBF Energy Awards Incentives to Align Executive Performance
Neutral
Dec 6, 2024

PBF Energy Inc.’s Board of Directors has approved long-term incentive awards for its executive officers, effective December 2, 2024. These incentives, awarded under the company’s Amended Equity Incentive Plan, include restricted stock and performance share units, which vary based on PBF’s performance relative to peers. The grants aim to align executive rewards with company performance, providing potential payouts ranging from zero to 200% of target values, thus motivating leadership to achieve strong results.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.