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Custom Truck One Source (CTOS)
NYSE:CTOS
US Market

Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) AI Stock Analysis

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Custom Truck One Source

(NYSE:CTOS)

63Neutral
Custom Truck One Source demonstrates strong revenue growth and improved leverage, but profitability remains inconsistent. Technical analysis shows mixed signals, while the valuation is challenged by a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call provides an optimistic outlook for 2025, supporting a moderate overall score.

Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Custom Truck One Source Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCustom Truck One Source (CTOS) is a leading provider in the specialty equipment industry, offering a comprehensive range of products and services tailored to various sectors including utility, telecommunications, forestry, rail, and construction. The company specializes in the sale, rental, and servicing of custom equipment such as trucks, cranes, and aerial lifts, ensuring they meet the unique demands of each industry. With a focus on quality and customer satisfaction, CTOS positions itself as a one-stop-shop for businesses requiring specialized vehicles and equipment solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyCustom Truck One Source makes money through several key revenue streams. Primarily, the company generates income by selling and renting out specialized vehicles and equipment. The sale of new and used equipment represents a significant portion of its revenue, allowing customers to purchase or lease equipment tailored to their operational needs. Additionally, CTOS offers maintenance and repair services, providing ongoing support and generating recurring income from service contracts and parts sales. The company's strategic partnerships with equipment manufacturers and financial institutions also enhance its product offerings and financing solutions, contributing to its overall earnings. These diversified revenue streams, along with its established industry presence, enable CTOS to maintain a robust financial model.

Custom Truck One Source Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Custom Truck One Source has demonstrated strong revenue growth and improved leverage, but profitability remains inconsistent with negative net income in some years. The balance sheet is strengthening, yet cash flow management needs improvement to support sustainable financial health.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The company has shown significant revenue growth over the years, with total revenue increasing from $264 million in 2019 to $1.865 billion in 2023. However, the net profit margin has been negative in some years, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability. The gross profit margin is relatively stable, but the net income fluctuations highlight potential operational or financial challenges.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity position with stockholders' equity increasing over the years. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly, indicating better leverage management. The equity ratio is relatively stable, suggesting a balanced approach in managing assets and liabilities.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow performance is mixed with fluctuations in operating cash flow and free cash flow. The company has faced challenges in generating positive free cash flow consistently. Recent improvements in operating cash flow are promising, but overall cash flow stability needs attention.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.80B1.87B1.57B1.17B302.74M
Gross Profit
390.27M454.26M383.75M210.01M76.44M
EBIT
126.36M170.95M161.86M9.29M17.25M
EBITDA
126.36K408.38M359.12M104.84M94.56M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-28.66K50.71M38.91M-181.50M-21.28M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.81M10.31M14.36M35.90M3.41M
Total Assets
3.50B3.37B2.94B2.68B768.40M
Total Debt
103.96M2.20B1.83B1.60B727.66M
Net Debt
100.16M2.19B1.81B1.56B724.25M
Total Liabilities
2.64B2.45B2.05B1.83B799.47M
Stockholders Equity
861.31M917.20M888.44M858.51M-31.07M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-276.33M-395.07M-294.82M-49.46M-25.59M
Operating Cash Flow
121.98M-30.88M45.97M138.93M42.83M
Investing Cash Flow
-187.49M-176.60M-218.94M-1.43B-29.31M
Financing Cash Flow
58.28M202.88M153.90M1.32B-16.41M

Custom Truck One Source Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.45
Price Trends
50DMA
4.86
Negative
100DMA
4.97
Negative
200DMA
4.51
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.06
Positive
RSI
37.88
Neutral
STOCH
8.42
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTOS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.74, below the 50-day MA of 4.86, and below the 200-day MA of 4.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.42 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CTOS.

Custom Truck One Source Risk Analysis

Custom Truck One Source disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Custom Truck One Source reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Custom Truck One Source Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TETEX
78
Outperform
$2.56B7.7619.13%1.77%-0.47%-34.74%
URURI
75
Outperform
$41.01B16.2330.74%1.06%7.07%9.56%
70
Outperform
$3.49B28.3321.26%1.15%3.22%-27.67%
67
Neutral
$799.86M186.130.67%1.48%-2.47%-87.25%
63
Neutral
$1.00B-3.22%-3.37%-156.92%
62
Neutral
$8.06B13.613.91%3.11%3.80%-14.06%
48
Neutral
$399.38M11.08-5.83%-2.04%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source
4.45
-1.43
-24.32%
ASTE
Astec
35.03
-7.07
-16.79%
HEES
H&E Equipment Services
95.43
33.67
54.52%
TEX
Terex
38.48
-23.79
-38.20%
TITN
Titan Machinery
17.04
-6.96
-29.00%
URI
United Rentals
627.65
-76.16
-10.82%

Custom Truck One Source Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 4, 2025 | % Change Since: 10.70% | Next Earnings Date: May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong performance in key segments with record revenues and effective inventory management. However, there were some challenges, such as a decline in ERS revenue and margin pressures in the TES segment. The company's guidance for 2025 indicates optimism for growth and improved financial performance.
Highlights
Record Year for GES Segment
GES had a record quarter in Q4 and a record year, exceeding a billion dollars in annual sales for the first time.
Strong Performance in ERS Segment
ERS segment showed a 12% sequential quarterly increase in average OEC on rent, and a 570 basis points improvement in average utilization, with rental revenue up 15% versus Q3.
TES Revenue Growth
TES segment saw a record quarterly revenue of over $300 million, up 18% sequentially and 3% compared to Q4 2023, with full-year TES revenue exceeding $1 billion for the first time.
Improved Inventory Management
A significant reduction in inventory of more than $150 million versus the end of Q3 and more than $170 million from peak levels at the end of August.
Positive Order Trends
A 35% increase in net orders compared to Q4 last year, with backlog currently at $445 million, up more than 20% since year-end.
Revenue and EBITDA Guidance
For 2025, expected total revenue between $1.97 and $2.06 billion and projected adjusted EBITDA between $370 million and $390 million.
Lowlights
Decline in ERS Revenue
ERS segment revenue was $172 million in Q4, down from $185 million in Q4 2023.
TES Segment Margin Pressure
TES segment gross margin was 16.6% for the quarter, down from Q4 2023, impacted by mix and improved inventory levels across the industry.
Sale-Leaseback Transaction Impact
Closed on a sale-leaseback transaction for net proceeds of over $52 million, resulting in an incremental lease expense of roughly $4.5 to $5 million a year.
Company Guidance
In the fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call, Custom Truck One Source, Inc. provided guidance for 2025, indicating a positive outlook across all business segments. The company expects total revenue to range between $1.97 billion and $2.06 billion, with projected adjusted EBITDA between $370 million and $390 million. The ERS segment is forecasted to generate between $666 million and $690 million in revenue, while TES revenue is anticipated to range from $1.16 billion to $1.21 billion. APS revenue is expected to be between $150 million and $160 million. Average OEC on rent for Q4 2024 was over $1.2 billion, showing a 12% sequential increase, while average utilization improved to just under 79%. The call also highlighted a 15% sequential increase in rental revenue for Q4, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth, and a 13% increase in rental asset sales. Custom Truck plans to continue investing in fleet expansion, with net rental CapEx projected to be just under $200 million for 2025. The company aims to reduce its net leverage to below three times by fiscal 2026, supported by expected levered free cash flow of $50 to $100 million in 2025.

Custom Truck One Source Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
Custom Truck One Source Reports Strong Q4 2024 Results
Positive
Mar 4, 2025

On March 4, 2025, Custom Truck One Source reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024. The company saw a significant improvement in its fourth-quarter performance, with a total revenue increase of 16.4% compared to the previous quarter and a net income of $27.6 million, reversing a net loss from the third quarter. Despite a full-year revenue decrease of 3.4% compared to 2023, the company achieved record performance in its Truck and Equipment Sales segment and reduced its inventory by more than $150 million, setting a positive outlook for 2025.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.