Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Carlyle Group (CG)
NASDAQ:CG
Top Page
Carlyle Group
(NASDAQ:CG)
68Neutral
Positive Factors
Capital Deployment
Monetization and deployment outlook is bright, with improving opportunities to monetize and deploy being a boon for capital markets and performance fees.
Earnings
Carlyle reported solid 3Q24 earnings, which included after-tax DE in line with the Street-high estimate and above consensus.
Investment Performance
Net accrued performance income increased a healthy ~30% sequentially to $2.8B, indicating strong underlying dynamics.
Negative Factors
Competition
The Carlyle Group's stock faces tough competition in the high growth alternative asset management industry, creating challenges for new valuation.
Fundraising Challenges
The Carlyle Group continues to face fundraising challenges in its flagship buyout strategies, impacting its growth compared to peers.
Management Fees
Management fees missed and that run-rated in our forecast and reinforces concerns about CG's core growth profile near- and long-term.
Carlyle Group (CG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.98B
Dividend Yield3.62%
Average Volume (3M)2.92M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.0
Beta (1Y)1.83
Revenue Growth62.87%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,300
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength85
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.78
Shares Outstanding361,202,880
10 Day Avg. Volume2,773,490
30 Day Avg. Volume2,918,241
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)6.78
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-11.30
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$54.33Price Target Upside51.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
Carlyle Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionThe Carlyle Group (CG) is a global investment firm that specializes in private equity, credit, real assets, and investment solutions. Founded in 1987 and headquartered in Washington, D.C., the company operates across a range of sectors, including aerospace, defense, consumer, media, telecommunications, energy, financial services, healthcare, industrial, technology, and transportation. Carlyle is known for its diversified portfolio and extensive global reach, with operations in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
How the Company Makes MoneyThe Carlyle Group generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees, often referred to as carried interest. Management fees are charged as a percentage of the assets under management (AUM) and are collected regularly, typically on a quarterly basis. Performance fees or carried interest are earned when investments are realized at a profit, and they represent a share of the profits generated by the investments. Additionally, Carlyle also invests its own capital alongside its fund investors, generating returns from these direct investments. Partnerships with institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, and high-net-worth individuals are also significant contributors to its revenue streams.
Carlyle Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Carlyle Group's financial performance is marked by strong revenue growth and a return to profitability, supported by effective cost management and a robust cash flow position. The significant reduction in debt enhances financial stability, though the equity backing remains an area for improvement.Income Statement
The Carlyle Group has demonstrated significant revenue growth from $2.64 billion in 2023 to $5.43 billion in 2024, indicating a strong recovery trajectory. However, the net profit margin has fluctuated, with a return to profitability in 2024 at $1.02 billion compared to a loss in 2023. The gross profit margin is consistent with the total revenue, indicating effective cost management. The EBIT margin in 2024 is strong at approximately 87.7%, showcasing operational efficiency despite past volatility.70
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is stable, with stockholders' equity increasing to $6.35 billion in 2024 from $5.19 billion in 2023, reflecting improved capitalization. The company has reduced its debt significantly, achieving a zero total debt position in 2024, improving the debt-to-equity ratio. However, the equity ratio remains moderate at around 27.5%, suggesting room for strengthening asset backing.65
Positive
Cash Flow
The Carlyle Group's cash flow position is robust, with free cash flow growing from $138 million in 2023 to over $1 billion in 2024, demonstrating effective cash management and operational improvements. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. However, the historical cash flow volatility suggests potential risks in maintaining this trajectory.75
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 5.43B | 2.64B | 3.36B | 5.53B | 1.88B | Gross Profit |
| 5.43B | 939.70M | -1.58B | 590.20M | 882.00M | EBIT |
| 4.76B | 0.00 | 1.72B | 3.96B | 545.40M | EBITDA |
| 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.81B | 4.21B | 0.00 | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 1.02B | -608.40M | 1.23B | 2.97B | 348.20M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 1.27B | 1.79B | 1.38B | 2.62B | 1.14B | Total Assets |
| 23.10B | 21.18B | 21.40B | 21.25B | 15.64B | Total Debt |
| 0.00 | 9.26B | 8.68B | 8.50B | 8.05B | Net Debt |
| -1.27B | -1.79B | 7.11B | 5.88B | 6.91B | Total Liabilities |
| 16.76B | 15.39B | 14.58B | 15.54B | 12.71B | Stockholders Equity |
| 6.35B | 5.19B | 6.22B | 5.28B | 2.69B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 1.01B | 138.30M | -1.04B | 1.75B | -230.40M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.09B | 204.90M | -379.30M | 1.79B | -169.20M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -77.60M | -43.60M | -828.80M | -32.20M | -61.20M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 682.80M | -99.60M | 114.80M | -242.50M | 370.30M |
Carlyle Group Technical Analysis
Negative
35.89
Price Trends
47.77
Negative
49.86
Negative
46.45
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.97
Negative
45.94
Neutral
39.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.96, below the 50-day MA of 47.77, and below the 200-day MA of 46.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CG.
Carlyle Group Risk Analysis
Carlyle Group disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carlyle Group reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carlyle Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $8.03B | 26.30 | 38.54% | 1.44% | 41.16% | 64.13% | |
73 Outperform | $70.43B | 17.23 | 28.29% | 1.50% | -20.40% | -13.30% | |
68 Neutral | $13.98B | 13.96 | 18.90% | 3.62% | 62.87% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $162.20B | 36.75 | 36.95% | 2.97% | 21.25% | 97.42% | |
64 Neutral | $91.09B | 31.30 | 13.23% | 0.68% | 42.19% | -18.20% | |
64 Neutral | $41.19B | 63.05 | 15.93% | 2.99% | 6.12% | -15.84% | |
63 Neutral | $14.39B | 9.81 | 8.95% | 4.37% | 16.38% | -11.64% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
CG
Carlyle Group
35.89
-10.16
-22.06%
APO
Apollo Global Management
108.68
-5.78
-5.05%
KKR
KKR & Co
92.79
-8.27
-8.18%
BX
Blackstone Group
125.04
-0.94
-0.75%
ARES
Ares Management
118.04
-13.63
-10.35%
HLNE
Hamilton Lane
135.66
20.83
18.14%
Carlyle Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 11, 2025 | % Change Since: -29.81% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted a strong financial performance with record fee-related earnings and significant growth in Global Credit and Capital Markets. Despite some challenges in Global Private Equity and economic conditions, the overall sentiment was positive, focusing on strategic investments and anticipated future growth.Highlights
Record Fee-Related Earnings
Generated over $1.1 billion of fee-related earnings, a near 30% increase over 2023. Expanded FRE margin to 46%, a 900 basis point year-over-year increase.
Strong Inflows and Capital Returns
Inflows exceeded $40 billion, bringing more than $100 billion of inflows over the last 2 years, and returned more than $1 billion in capital to shareholders.
Global Credit Growth
Global Credit revenues increased 22% in 2024, with $190 billion of assets under management. Completed a landmark Discovery transaction, one of the largest asset-backed finance transactions of the year.
Successful Capital Markets and Investment Solutions
Record year in transaction fees for Capital Markets, and a 44% increase in fee revenue for Global Investment Solutions.
Positive Performance in Private Equity
Two latest U.S. buyout funds appreciated 15% and 21%, respectively, creating more than $5 billion of value.
Lowlights
Decline in Global Private Equity Management Fees
Global private equity management fees declined 7% in 2024.
Impact of Economic Conditions
Challenges related to higher interest rates and market volatility affecting certain segments.
Fee-Paying AUM Decline
Negative mark in fee-paying AUM was outsized relative to the reported positive 3% mark, reflecting some economic and market impacts.
Company Guidance
During The Carlyle Group's Fourth Quarter 2024 earnings call, the company reported strong financial performance and provided guidance for 2025. Carlyle achieved over $1.1 billion in fee-related earnings (FRE) in 2024, marking a nearly 30% increase from the previous year, with an expanded FRE margin of 46%, up 900 basis points year-over-year. The firm saw inflows exceeding $40 billion, bringing the total to over $100 billion in the last two years, and returned more than $1 billion in capital to shareholders. The Global Credit segment experienced a 22% revenue increase, closing the year with $190 billion in assets under management. Despite some expected modest declines in Global Private Equity management fees, Carlyle anticipates a 6% FRE growth in 2025. The company remains optimistic about growth in Global Credit, Global Investment Solutions, and Global Wealth, with a commitment to strategic investments in these areas. Carlyle has $23 billion in pending fee-earning AUM, with the potential to generate close to $200 million in annual management fees, and expects to activate these assets throughout 2025.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.