Ascendis Pharma (ASND) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.56B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 437.35K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 10.69%
• EPS Growth: 34.71%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,017
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 37
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.84
• Shares Outstanding: 60,970,566
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 429,401
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 437,350
• PEG Ratio: -0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 24.28
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $241.85
• Price Target Upside: 38.29% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Ascendis Pharma's stock reflects a mix of strong revenue growth and innovative product development, offset by significant operational losses and financial instability. The technical analysis shows strong momentum, but valuation remains challenging with negative earnings. The earnings call further underscores the duality of growth potential and financial constraints.

Positive Factors

Commercial Performance

The strong US launch of Yorvipath and its peak sales potential, especially given its early commercial performance exceeding expectations, contribute to a positive sales outlook.

Market Adoption

Positive feedback from physicians indicates robust market adoption for Yorvipath, highlighting its potential to prevent renal impairment and its simplified dosing.

Pipeline Opportunities

The promising commercial trajectory of Yorvipath in hypoparathyroidism and the compelling opportunities presented by the TransCon pipeline drive the Overweight rating for Ascendis Pharma.

Negative Factors

Data Requirement

Long-term data is needed to confirm the safety and efficacy of TransCon CNP compared to emerging therapies like infigratinib, which may become dominant due to its convenient oral dosing.

Regulatory Challenges

Despite forward regulatory progress and differentiating data, Ascendis Pharma's CNP program remains underappreciated and is a strong source of potential growth.

Ascendis Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ascendis Pharma A/S, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing therapeutics for unmet medical needs. The company offers SKYTROFA for treating patients with growth hormone deficiency (GHD). It also develops TransCon Growth Hormone (hGH) for pediatric GHD in Japan; TransCon hGH for adults with GHD; TransCon parathyroid hormone for adult hypoparathyroidism; and TransCon CNP for pediatric achondroplasia. In addition, the company develops TransCon toll like receptors 7/8 agonist for intratumoral delivery; and TransCon IL-2 ß/g for systemic delivery. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.

How the Company Makes Money

Ascendis Pharma generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its proprietary drug products. The company utilizes its TransCon technology platform to create long-acting prodrugs, which are designed to improve efficacy and reduce dosing frequency. Revenue streams include product sales, milestone payments, and royalties from commercialized products. Additionally, Ascendis engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, which can provide upfront payments and ongoing funding to support research and development activities. The company's financial performance is significantly influenced by the successful clinical development and regulatory approval of its pipeline products.

Ascendis Pharma Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ascendis Pharma is experiencing robust revenue growth, yet it faces challenges with profitability and financial stability. The reliance on debt and negative equity pose potential risks, while cash flow constraints suggest a need for sustainable financing solutions. Continued innovation and successful product commercialization are key to future financial health.

Income Statement

Ascendis Pharma shows significant revenue growth with a Revenue Growth Rate of 36.3% from 2023 to 2024. However, the company continues to operate at a loss, with negative Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Margin due to substantial R&D expenses typical in biotechnology. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain negative, indicating ongoing operating losses.

Balance Sheet

The company's financial structure is concerning, with negative Stockholders' Equity indicating accumulated losses. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, highlighting potential financial instability. The Equity Ratio is also negative, reflecting the company's reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Operating Cash Flow remains negative, reflecting cash outflows from operations. However, Free Cash Flow improved slightly year-over-year, though it remains negative. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is not favorable. There is a reliance on financing activities to support cash needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	363.64M	266.72M	51.17M	7.78M	6.95M
Gross Profit	319.38M	222.32M	39.04M	4.25M	6.95M
EBITDA	-290.02M	-411.17M	-556.04M	-423.67M	-328.88M
Net Income	-378.08M	-481.45M	-583.19M	-383.58M	-418.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.18B	825.59M	1.09B	1.08B	979.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	559.54M	399.44M	735.46M	682.06M	718.79M
Total Debt	856.62M	644.26M	508.38M	104.96M	91.97M
Total Liabilities	1.29B	971.28M	826.39M	201.29M	141.08M
Stockholders Equity	-105.71M	-145.70M	263.35M	883.63M	838.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-307.62M	-469.80M	-510.19M	-441.88M	-293.10M
Operating Cash Flow	-306.20M	-467.36M	-495.70M	-417.65M	-271.55M
Investing Cash Flow	6.88M	286.47M	61.73M	-110.58M	-291.20M
Financing Cash Flow	443.93M	134.29M	396.77M	351.39M	602.65M

Ascendis Pharma Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 174.88
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASND, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 174.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 174.01, above the 50-day MA of 168.41, and above the 200-day MA of 146.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASND.

Ascendis Pharma Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXEL	84 Outperform	$12.23B	20.35	30.22%	―	24.49%	244.87%
HALO	78 Outperform	$7.04B	15.16	147.06%	―	25.65%	57.10%
CORT	69 Neutral	$7.62B	62.39	21.52%	―	30.93%	11.78%
MDGL	56 Neutral	$7.00B	―	-50.16%	―	―	21.83%
MRNA	55 Neutral	$13.01B	―	-29.34%	―	-38.25%	44.29%
ASND	52 Neutral	$10.56B	―	357.68%	―	10.69%	34.71%
Sector *	50 Neutral	AU$2.48B	3.20	-57.47%	2.71%	36.73%	13.67%