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Ascendis Pharma (ASND)
NASDAQ:ASND
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Ascendis Pharma
(NASDAQ:ASND)
53Neutral
Positive Factors
Analyst Confidence
Analyst maintains a Buy rating with a price objective of $192, indicating confidence in the stock's potential.
Competitive Advantage
The US Yorvipath launch began with Yorvipath’s first-to-market profile as a clear advantage over competitors.
Market Launch
Yorvipath has been launching very well in hypoparathyroidism, with 908 prescriptions in the US.
Negative Factors
Clinical Data Reliability
The Phase 3 study of eneboparatide met the primary endpoint but included no additional details, suggesting the 24-week data may not be fully reliable.
Competitive Landscape
There are potential concerns regarding the competitive landscape due to the CALYPSO study data.
Conflict of Interest
The analyst report contains a conflict of interest disclosure, which may affect the objectivity of the report.
Ascendis Pharma (ASND) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.64B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)528.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.74
Revenue Growth36.09%
EPS Growth22.96%
CountryUS
Employees1,017
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength66
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-7.13
Shares Outstanding60,689,487
10 Day Avg. Volume436,496
30 Day Avg. Volume527,996
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)25.38
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$208.82Price Target Upside31.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
Ascendis Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAscendis Pharma A/S, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing therapeutics for unmet medical needs. The company offers SKYTROFA for treating patients with growth hormone deficiency (GHD). It also develops TransCon Growth Hormone (hGH) for pediatric GHD in Japan; TransCon hGH for adults with GHD; TransCon parathyroid hormone for adult hypoparathyroidism; and TransCon CNP for pediatric achondroplasia. In addition, the company develops TransCon toll like receptors 7/8 agonist for intratumoral delivery; and TransCon IL-2 ß/g for systemic delivery. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.
How the Company Makes MoneyAscendis Pharma generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue model is centered around its innovative TransCon technology, which is designed to improve the efficacy, safety, and convenience of existing therapies. Key revenue streams include product sales, milestone payments, and potential royalties from partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships often involve licensing agreements that provide Ascendis Pharma with upfront payments and ongoing royalties based on sales performance. Additionally, the company's financial performance is significantly influenced by the successful progression of its clinical trials and regulatory approvals, which can enhance its market position and revenue potential.
Ascendis Pharma Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ascendis Pharma shows significant revenue growth, yet it faces challenges with profitability and financial stability. The reliance on debt and negative equity pose potential risks, while cash flow constraints suggest a need for sustainable financing solutions.Income Statement
Ascendis Pharma shows significant revenue growth with a Revenue Growth Rate of 36.3% from 2023 to 2024. However, the company continues to operate at a loss, with negative Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Margin due to substantial R&D expenses typical in biotechnology. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain negative, indicating ongoing operating losses.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's financial structure is concerning, with negative Stockholders' Equity indicating accumulated losses. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, highlighting potential financial instability. The Equity Ratio is also negative, reflecting the company's reliance on debt financing.30
Negative
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow remains negative, reflecting cash outflows from operations. However, Free Cash Flow improved slightly year-over-year, though it remains negative. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is not favorable. There is a reliance on financing activities to support cash needs.40
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 363.64M | 266.72M | 51.17M | 7.78M | 6.95M | Gross Profit |
| 319.38M | 222.32M | 39.04M | 4.25M | 6.95M | EBIT |
| -278.76M | -455.54M | -561.81M | -451.79M | -330.62M | EBITDA |
| -290.02M | -411.17M | -556.04M | -423.67M | -328.88M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -378.08M | -481.45M | -583.19M | -383.58M | -418.95M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 559.54M | 399.44M | 735.46M | 682.06M | 718.79M | Total Assets |
| 1.18B | 825.59M | 1.09B | 1.08B | 979.79M | Total Debt |
| 856.62M | 644.26M | 508.38M | 104.96M | 91.97M | Net Debt |
| 297.07M | 252.10M | 63.61M | -341.31M | -492.54M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.29B | 971.28M | 826.39M | 201.29M | 141.08M | Stockholders Equity |
| -105.71M | -145.70M | 263.35M | 883.63M | 838.71M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -307.62M | -469.80M | -510.19M | -441.88M | -293.10M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -306.20M | -467.36M | -495.70M | -417.65M | -271.55M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 6.88M | 286.47M | 61.73M | -110.58M | -291.20M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 443.93M | 134.29M | 396.77M | 351.39M | 602.65M |
Ascendis Pharma Technical Analysis
Positive
158.28
Price Trends
142.97
Positive
137.36
Positive
135.57
Positive
Market Momentum
5.60
Positive
54.15
Neutral
64.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASND, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 158.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 156.05, above the 50-day MA of 142.97, and above the 200-day MA of 135.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASND.
Ascendis Pharma Risk Analysis
Ascendis Pharma disclosed 90 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ascendis Pharma reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ascendis Pharma Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $320.18B | 22.38 | 82.03% | 1.39% | 24.91% | 21.42% | |
78 Outperform | $69.98B | 16.54 | 15.95% | 0.14% | 8.27% | 10.35% | |
69 Neutral | $808.02B | 72.76 | 84.84% | 0.63% | 32.00% | 102.18% | |
67 Neutral | $20.37B | 12.74 | 10.36% | ― | -1.60% | 39.71% | |
64 Neutral | $128.47B | ― | -3.15% | ― | 11.64% | -114.72% | |
53 Neutral | $9.64B | ― | 357.68% | ― | 36.09% | 22.96% | |
49 Neutral | $6.88B | 0.82 | -52.97% | 2.48% | 20.92% | 1.17% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ASND
Ascendis Pharma
158.28
9.84
6.63%
BIIB
Biogen
142.43
-73.91
-34.16%
LLY
Eli Lilly & Co
826.76
53.60
6.93%
NVO
Novo Nordisk
71.73
-55.99
-43.84%
REGN
Regeneron
640.14
-324.92
-33.67%
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
500.28
82.96
19.88%
Ascendis Pharma Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 12, 2025 | % Change Since: 25.48% | Next Earnings Date: May 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial growth and successful product launches, particularly with YORVIPATH in the U.S., and promising developments in the pipeline. However, challenges remain with revenue fluctuations for SKYTROFA and market penetration hurdles for YORVIPATH.Highlights
Strong Financial Position and Revenue Growth
Ascendis Pharma ended 2024 with a strong financial position, holding €665 million in cash, including a $100 million upfront payment from Novo Nordisk. Total revenue for 2024 was €363.6 million, with SKYTROFA achieving revenue of around €200 million, a significant increase supported by an 84% volume increase in the U.S.
Successful Launch of YORVIPATH in the U.S.
YORVIPATH, the only FDA-approved treatment for hypothyroidism in adults, has launched in the U.S. and has already shown strong initial demand with 908 patient prescriptions as of February 7, 2025. The product is expected to grow into a multi-billion-dollar product over time.
Positive Developments in Pipeline
TransCon CNP clinical data demonstrated potential as a highly differentiated product for achondroplasia, with plans to submit an NDA for its treatment in Q1 2025. Additionally, a combination treatment with TransCon Growth Hormone is in development.
Expansion Beyond Endocrine Rare Diseases
Ascendis Pharma is expanding its TransCon technology platform beyond endocrine rare diseases, collaborating with Novo Nordisk in metabolic diseases, and forming Eyconis for ophthalmology therapies.
Lowlights
Revenue Decline for SKYTROFA in Q4 2024
Despite a 37% increase in volume for SKYTROFA in Q4 2024 compared to the previous year, reported revenue was €58.5 million, a decrease from €64.2 million in Q4 2023, due to higher sales deductions.
Market Penetration and Reimbursement Challenges
Despite strong early demand, there are ongoing challenges with payer approvals and establishing medical policies for YORVIPATH, with insurance approvals taking four to eight weeks.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call, Ascendis Pharma provided detailed guidance and metrics reflecting their strong market position and future growth potential. Key highlights included SKYTROFA's impressive performance, achieving around €200 million in revenue and a 6.5% market share in the U.S. growth hormone market, alongside a dominant 45% share in the U.S. long-acting segment. The company expressed confidence in further market penetration and multiple planned commercial launches across various indications and countries. YORVIPATH, now launched in the U.S., showed promising early demand with 908 prescriptions from 539 unique prescribers, indicating its potential to become a multi-billion-dollar product. Financially, Ascendis ended 2024 with €665 million in cash, positioning them to invest in commercial uptake and new product development. They remain optimistic about sustained revenue growth, bolstered by upcoming regulatory submissions for TransCon CNP and strategic collaborations with Novo Nordisk.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.