YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) AI Stock Analysis

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YPF Sociedad Anonima

(NYSE:YPF)

76Outperform

YPF's overall score reflects a strong financial recovery, strategic growth in shale oil production, and successful debt management. These positives are somewhat offset by technical indicators suggesting caution and challenges in cash flow and fuel demand. Valuation remains attractive, providing potential opportunities for investors.

Positive Factors

Downstream Segment Performance

The downstream segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of US$382mn, above the estimate of US$325mn.

Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow was positive at US$64mn, positively affected mainly by collection of overdue natural gas receivables and proceeds from certain mature fields, in addition to lower debt service payment.

Growth Prospects

YPF has just announced a project development agreement with Shell for the first phase of its Argentina LNG project, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects.

Negative Factors

Earnings

YPF's 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA came in at US$839mn, 6% below expectations and 10% below consensus.

Market Reaction

A negative market reaction is expected due to the miss versus consensus.

Valuation

YPF still trades on an undemanding valuation, given the increased earnings power, and a Buy rating is reiterated with a price target increase to US$60 per share.

YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$14.30B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.06M

Price to Earnings (P/E)4.6

Beta (1Y)1.17

Revenue Growth7.35%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees21,594

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength52

IndustryOil & Gas Integrated

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)6.00

Shares Outstanding393,261,000

10 Day Avg. Volume2,656,990

30 Day Avg. Volume2,060,204

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.83

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$54.50

Price Target Upside97.61% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

YPF Sociedad Anonima Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionYPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in Argentina. The company's upstream operations include the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs. Its downstream operations include the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG, and bio-fuels, as well as in gas separation, natural gas distribution operations, and power generation. As of December 31, 2021, it had interests in 119 oil and gas fields; approximately 643 million barrels (mmbbl) of oil; and approximately 2,447 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas. It also had a retail distribution network of 1,654 YPF-branded service stations; and 18 exploration permits. In addition, the company owns and operates three refineries with combined annual refining capacity of approximately 120 mmbbl; approximately 2,800 kilometers of crude oil pipelines with approximately 640,000 barrels of aggregate daily transportation capacity of refined products; and crude oil tankage of approximately 7 mmbbl, as well as maintains terminal facilities at five Argentine ports. Further, it participates in 21 power generation plants with an aggregate installed capacity of 3,091 megawatts; offers diesel, fertilizers, lubricants, phytosanitary products, and ensiling bags; and supplies diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, coal, asphalts, paraffin, and sulfur, CO2, decanted oil, and aromatic extract. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

How the Company Makes MoneyYPF makes money through a diversified revenue model that includes upstream and downstream operations. In the upstream sector, the company generates revenue from the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, which are sold in domestic and international markets. In the downstream sector, YPF earns income from refining crude oil into various petroleum products, which are then marketed and distributed through its extensive network of service stations across Argentina. Additionally, YPF is involved in the production of petrochemicals, which contribute to its earnings. The company also has strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, further supporting its revenue streams.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Financial Statement Overview

Summary

YPF demonstrates strong financial recovery with significant revenue growth and improved profitability margins from 2020 to 2024. The balance sheet shows better leverage management, though high liabilities persist. Cash flow is robust but faces challenges from capital expenditures. Overall, YPF is on a positive trajectory, though caution is warranted due to market conditions and debt levels.

Income Statement

Very Positive

YPF has shown a strong recovery with significant growth in total revenue from $6.6 billion in 2020 to $17.9 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 27.63% in 2024 from 5.06% in 2020, and net profit margin turned positive at 11.61% after a loss in prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect robust profitability. However, revenue growth might slow as recent growth rates are based on recovery from a low base.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved from 1.07 in 2020 to 0.83 in 2024, indicating better leverage management. Return on equity (ROE) surged to 17.30%, showcasing enhanced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio increased to 39.66%, reflecting solid equity backing for assets. Despite improvements, high total liabilities remain a concern for financial stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands strong, indicating good cash generation relative to profits. However, free cash flow growth is modest given the large capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio suggests limited cash buffer, though operating cash flows have been robust. Cash management appears effective, albeit with some risks tied to capital expenditures.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
17.90T	5.39T	2.48T	1.24T	659.60B
	Gross Profit
4.94T	1.88T	602.50B	214.89B	33.39B
	EBIT
1.16T	1.06T	399.20B	148.95B	-38.31B
	EBITDA
3.90T	516.11B	850.73B	424.00B	205.22B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.08T	-1.56T	289.06B	-808.00M	-71.02B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.55T	1.39B	193.36B	113.69B	83.55B
	Total Assets
30.29T	25.04B	4.59T	2.39T	1.92T
	Total Debt
10.01T	8.86B	1.36T	812.84B	724.58B
	Net Debt
8.86T	7.73B	1.22T	750.16B	669.96B
	Total Liabilities
18.06T	15.98B	2.72T	1.54T	1.24T
	Stockholders Equity
12.01T	7.22T	1.85T	839.89B	677.23B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
213.43B	240.00M	204.53B	165.21B	94.60B
	Operating Cash Flow
5.60T	5.91B	736.66B	400.01B	209.22B
	Investing Cash Flow
-5.23T	-5.33B	-523.02B	-243.99B	-109.16B
	Financing Cash Flow
-293.66B	278.00M	-157.10B	-150.66B	-121.11B

YPF Sociedad Anonima Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price27.58

Price Trends

50DMA

35.30

Negative

100DMA

38.33

Negative

200DMA

30.45

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.04

Negative

RSI

48.21

Neutral

STOCH

35.33

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YPF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.01, below the 50-day MA of 35.30, and below the 200-day MA of 30.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for YPF.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (57)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EQNR	79 Outperform	$60.42B	7.51	19.39%	4.90%	-4.07%	-20.34%
TTE	78 Outperform	$114.45B	8.28	13.43%	4.88%	-10.66%	-23.19%
E	77 Outperform	$37.51B	15.78	5.58%	5.42%	-5.16%	-41.74%
EC	77 Outperform	$18.32B	5.02	18.70%	17.55%	-1.24%	-16.75%
YPF	76 Outperform	$14.30B	4.60	22.65%	―	7.35%	―
PBR	66 Neutral	$75.00B	11.60	10.52%	21.63%	-10.81%	-70.65%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.72B	4.32	-3.75%	6.33%	-0.11%	-64.75%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

YPF

YPF Sociedad Anonima

27.58

6.41

30.28%

Ecopetrol SA

8.23

-2.24

-21.39%

Eni SPA

25.47

-6.15

-19.45%

PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras

11.30

-1.79

-13.67%

EQNR

Equinor ASA

22.56

-3.19

-12.39%

TTE

TotalEnergies

54.72

-14.62

-21.08%

YPF Sociedad Anonima Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 6, 2025 | % Change Since: -17.45% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted YPF's significant achievements in increasing shale oil production and improving financial metrics, alongside successful debt management. However, the company faced challenges with negative free cash flow and decreased fuel sales volumes, largely impacted by mature fields and external factors. Despite these issues, the overall progress and strategic initiatives suggest a positive outlook.

Highlights

Significant Increase in Shale Oil Production

YPF achieved an impressive output of 122,000 barrels per day in 2024, marking a 26% increase compared to 2023. As of the call, net production is above 150,000 barrels per day.

Record High Refinery Processing Levels

YPF reached a record high in the processing level of its refinery, exceeding 300,000 barrels per day in 2024, with a refinery utilization of 92%.

Improved Financial Metrics

Net results improved substantially, posting a gain of $2.4 billion in 2024 compared to a loss of $1.3 billion in the previous year.

Successful Debt Management

YPF successfully issued a nine-year unsecured international bond for $1.1 billion at a yield of 8.5%, part of a strategy that reduced the net leverage ratio to 1.6 times.

Lowlights

Negative Free Cash Flow

YPF reported a negative free cash flow of $760 million in 2024, impacted by $433 million from mature fields and $85 million from Patagonia weather.

Challenges in Fuel Demand

Fuel sales volumes decreased by 7% in 2024, attributed to an exceptional high level of demand in 2023 driven by low prices.

Mature Fields Impact on Financial Performance

Approximately $300 million negative EBITDA was attributed to mature fields.

Company Guidance

In the YPF Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call, the company provided comprehensive guidance on their strategic and financial outlook. The 4X4 plan aims to significantly increase the value of the company by reshaping the oil production matrix, transitioning from conventional mature fields to enhancing the shale oil production share to at least 80%. YPF has made substantial progress, having signed agreements for 24 out of 49 mature blocks and nearing completion on others. The VMOS pipeline project is set to ramp up production to 180,000 barrels per day by late 2026 and over half a million barrels by late 2027. The company recorded a record high refinery utilization rate of 92% and achieved a record production level of 5,605 cubic meters per day of premium diesel. Financially, YPF marked a robust year with revenues reaching $19.3 billion, an 11% increase, and an adjusted EBITDA of $4.7 billion, a 15% rise. They also completed significant financing transactions, including a $1.1 billion bond issuance. Looking forward, YPF anticipates further growth in shale oil production, aiming for over 160,000 barrels per day in 2025, focusing investment on their core Vaca Muerta assets, and maintaining a strong competitive position within the Argentine energy market.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.