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Vital Energy (VTLE)
NYSE:VTLE

Vital Energy (VTLE) AI Stock Analysis

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Vital Energy

(NYSE:VTLE)

70Outperform
Vital Energy's stock score of 70 reflects strong revenue growth and improved cash flow, bolstered by a low P/E ratio indicating undervaluation. Positive earnings call highlights and strategic corporate events further support this score. However, profitability concerns, bearish technical indicators, and operational challenges in some areas limit upward potential.
Positive Factors
Cost Reduction
Recent messaging from the company indicates that cost reduction initiatives are progressing as planned and that LOE is expected to fall to ~$9.00/boe by YE25.
Inventory and Productivity
VTLE raised its inventory estimate to 925 gross locations, up approximately 5% from mid-year 2024, with longer average lateral lengths resulting in a higher 15% increase to the total lateral footage of its inventory.
Negative Factors
Production and Performance
Operational delays and underperformance in a 7-well delineation project have contributed to a lower volume trajectory, which is seen as a disappointment.

Vital Energy (VTLE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Vital Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVital Energy (VTLE) is a company operating in the energy sector, primarily focusing on the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources. The company is involved in the upstream segment of the energy market, using advanced technologies to maximize the extraction and efficiency of its hydrocarbon assets. With a commitment to sustainable practices, Vital Energy aims to deliver reliable energy solutions while minimizing environmental impact.
How the Company Makes MoneyVital Energy generates revenue through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) that it extracts from its assets. The company explores and develops energy resources, aiming to increase its reserves and production capacity. Revenue is primarily driven by the volume of resources produced and the prevailing market prices for oil and gas. Additionally, Vital Energy may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to optimize its operations and expand its market reach, which can contribute to its earnings. The company's financial performance is influenced by factors such as global energy demand, commodity price fluctuations, and operational efficiencies.

Vital Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vital Energy exhibits significant revenue growth and improved cash flow in the TTM period, reflecting strong operational performance. However, profitability challenges are evident, with negative net income and EBIT. The balance sheet shows improved debt management, though profitability remains a concern. Overall, the company is on a positive trajectory with potential risks related to sustained profitability.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The income statement reveals mixed performance. Revenue in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) increased by 26.2% from the previous year, showing strong growth. However, the company posted a net loss in TTM, with a negative EBIT margin. This indicates operational challenges and profitability concerns despite growing revenues.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet shows significant improvement. The debt-to-equity ratio decreased, indicating better leverage management, and the equity ratio is strong at 45.9%, showcasing a solid equity base. However, the ROE is negative due to the net loss in TTM, highlighting profitability issues.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow is robust with a substantial increase in operating cash flow in TTM, which is 29% higher than the previous year. The free cash flow turned positive in TTM, indicating effective cash management. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities despite net losses.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.95B1.55B1.92B1.39B677.19M
Gross Profit
1.82B1.13B1.20B753.22M146.40M
EBIT
-22.55M559.62M1.06B720.34M41.03M
EBITDA
690.34M1.13B1.10B401.95M-538.51M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-173.52M695.08M631.51M145.01M-874.17M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
40.18M14.06M44.44M56.80M48.76M
Total Assets
5.88B5.15B2.73B2.55B1.44B
Total Debt
99.88M1.75B1.14B1.44B1.20B
Net Debt
59.70M1.74B1.09B1.38B1.15B
Total Liabilities
3.18B2.36B1.62B2.04B1.46B
Stockholders Equity
2.70B2.79B1.11B513.78M-21.44M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.00B-667.97M242.90M-693.88M-7.18M
Operating Cash Flow
1.00B812.96M829.62M496.67M383.39M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.74B-1.48B-475.95M-796.81M-389.24M
Financing Cash Flow
763.38M632.80M-366.03M308.18M13.75M

Vital Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price20.92
Price Trends
50DMA
31.04
Negative
100DMA
30.36
Negative
200DMA
34.35
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.20
Positive
RSI
21.39
Positive
STOCH
6.96
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VTLE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.74, below the 50-day MA of 31.04, and below the 200-day MA of 34.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 21.39 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VTLE.

Vital Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$5.88B6.3119.67%2.14%23.47%0.80%
SMSM
71
Outperform
$3.13B4.1419.62%2.78%13.33%-2.72%
70
Outperform
$797.50M2.02-6.33%26.15%-114.03%
57
Neutral
$8.36B5.49-6.03%7.47%0.03%-68.64%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VTLE
Vital Energy
20.92
-29.99
-58.91%
MTDR
Matador Resources
47.00
-18.14
-27.85%
SM
SM Energy
29.07
-16.96
-36.85%

Vital Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 19, 2025 | % Change Since: -40.52% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights several positive achievements, including strong financial results, significant inventory additions, and enhanced capital efficiency. However, there are challenges such as higher capital investments, underperformance in Upton County, and delays in the drilling program. Overall, the positives slightly outweigh the negatives.
Highlights
Outstanding Fourth Quarter 2024 Results
Vital Energy delivered strong financial and operating results, exceeding the top end of guidance for both total and oil production. The Point Energy assets acquired last September contributed to this success.
Significant Inventory Additions
Total inventory increased by more than 10%, with approximately 925 oil-weighted locations representing more than 11 years of drilling at the current pace. Future developable lateral footage increased by about 30%.
Enhanced Capital Efficiency
Average lateral length increased by 16% to 12,800 feet, reducing the average breakeven oil price to approximately $53 per barrel WTI. Operational competencies were improved with new well designs like Horseshoe-shaped and J-shaped wells.
Strong 2025 Outlook
Expected production of 135,000 to 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with plans to deliver adjusted free cash flow of approximately $330 million at $70 oil.
Reduction in Operating Costs
Operating costs on acquired properties were reduced, with LOE guidance outperformed by 5%, achieving a cost of $8.89 per BOE.
Lowlights
Higher Capital Investments
Capital investments were higher than guidance due to increased working interest and carried interest on some acquisitions, impacting D&C capital by about $17 million.
Underperformance in Upton County
A package of wells in Upton County underperformed expectations due to tests focused on delineating future development inventory, resulting in a decrease in expected oil production.
Delays in Drilling Program
Delays pushed out the completions and turn-in-line timing for several packages of wells, deferring production until later in 2025.
Company Guidance
During Vital Energy's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, CEO Jason Pigott highlighted several key metrics and strategic priorities. The company exceeded production guidance for both total and oil production, driven by strong performance from their Point Energy assets. Despite capital investments being slightly above guidance, the company delivered operational cost efficiencies, outperforming their lease operating expense (LOE) guidance by 5%, achieving a cost of $8.89 per BOE. Future LOE is expected to average around $9.20 per BOE, with a target of reducing it below $9 by the end of 2025. Vital Energy's significant inventory additions increased oil-weighted locations by more than 10%, with 925 locations now available, equating to over 11 years of drilling. The company successfully extended average lateral lengths by 16% to 12,800 feet, reducing their average breakeven oil price to $53 per barrel WTI. For 2025, Vital Energy forecasts production of 135,000 to 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with capital investments between $825 million to $925 million and an expected adjusted free cash flow of $330 million at $70 oil. The focus remains on optimizing capital efficiency, enhancing asset quality, and prioritizing debt reduction over large-scale acquisitions.

Vital Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vital Energy Highlights Record Production in 2024 Results
Neutral
Feb 19, 2025

Vital Energy reported its financial and operational outcomes for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, highlighting record production levels and strategic asset integration. Despite a net loss due to impairment charges, the company achieved significant cash flow and reduced operating costs. In 2025, Vital Energy plans to focus on cost reduction, debt repayment, and optimizing its inventory to maintain high returns and free cash flow generation, with a projected substantial capital investment aimed at maintaining production levels. This strategic positioning aims to solidify its market presence and shareholder value.

Financial Disclosures
Vital Energy to Announce 2024 Financial Results
Neutral
Jan 15, 2025

On January 15, 2025, Vital Energy announced plans to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results after market close on February 19, 2025, followed by a conference call on February 20, 2025, to discuss these results. This announcement highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders regarding its financial and operating performance, potentially impacting investor relations and market perception.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Vital Energy Updates Executive Compensation Plans
Positive
Dec 13, 2024

Vital Energy, Inc. has approved amendments to its Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan and Change in Control Executive Severance Plan to align with current market practices. Key changes include updating definitions related to ‘change in control’ and ‘good reason’, increasing severance payouts for certain executives, and extending health coverage following a qualifying event, which could enhance the company’s attractiveness to stakeholders and align its operational policies with market standards.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.