UnitedHealth (UNH) Risk Analysis

We participate in various federal, state and local government health care benefit programs, including as a payer in Medicare Advantage, Medicare Part D, various Medicaid programs and CHIP, and receive substantial revenues from these programs. Some of our Optum businesses also provide services to payers participating in government health care programs. A reduction or less than expected increase, or a protracted delay, in government funding for these programs or change in allocation methodologies, or termination of the contract at the option of the government, has affected and in future periods may materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial position and cash flows. The government health care programs in which we participate are generally subject to frequent changes, including changes which may reduce the number of persons enrolled or eligible for coverage (such as Medicaid eligibility redeterminations in certain states and federal enhanced premium subsidy reductions), reduce the amount of reimbursement or payment levels, reduce our participation in, or prevent our expansion into, certain service areas or markets, or increase our administrative or medical costs under such programs. Revenues for these programs depend on periodic funding from the federal government or applicable state governments and allocation of the funding through various payment mechanisms. Funding for these government programs depends on many factors outside of our control, including general economic conditions and budgetary constraints at the federal or applicable state level. For example, CMS in the past has reduced or frozen Medicare Advantage benchmarks, and additional cuts to Medicare Advantage benchmarks are possible. In addition, from time to time, CMS makes changes to the way it calculates Medicare Advantage risk adjustment payments. Although we have adjusted members' benefits and premiums on a selective basis, ceased to offer benefit plans in certain counties, and intensified both our medical and operating cost management in response to the benchmark reductions and other funding pressures, these or other strategies may not fully address the funding pressures in the Medicare Advantage program. In addition, payers in the Medicare Advantage program may be subject to reductions in payments from CMS as a result of decreased funding or recoupment pursuant to government audit. States have also made changes in rates and reimbursements for Medicaid members and audits can result in unexpected recoupments. Under the Medicaid managed care program, state Medicaid agencies solicit bids from eligible health plans to continue their participation in the acute care Medicaid health programs. If we are not successful in obtaining renewals of state Medicaid managed care contracts, we risk losing the members who were enrolled in those Medicaid programs. Under the Medicare Part D program, to qualify for automatic enrollment of low income members, our bids must result in an enrollee premium below a regional benchmark, which is calculated by the government after all regional bids are submitted. If the enrollee premium is not below the government benchmark, we risk losing the members who were auto-assigned to us and will not have additional members auto-assigned to us. Chronic failure to meet the benchmarks could result in termination of these government contracts. In general, our bids are based upon certain assumptions regarding enrollment, utilization, medical costs and other factors. If any of these assumptions are materially incorrect, either as a result of unforeseen changes to the programs on which we bid, implementation of material program or policy changes after our bid submission, or submissions by our competitors at lower rates than our bids, our results of operations, financial position and cash flows could be materially and adversely affected. Many of the government health care coverage programs we participate in are subject to the prior satisfaction of certain conditions or performance standards or benchmarks. For example, as part of the ACA, CMS has a system providing various quality bonus payments to Medicare Advantage plans meeting specified quality star ratings at the individual plan or local contract level. The star rating system considers various measures adopted by CMS, including, among others, quality of care, preventive services, chronic illness management, handling of appeals and customer satisfaction. Plans must have a rating of four stars or higher to qualify for bonus payments, and CMS has made and may make additional changes to the star rating program that impact the ability of our plans to achieve four-star or higher ratings. If we do not maintain or continue to improve our star ratings, our plans may not be eligible for quality bonuses and we may experience a negative impact on our revenues and the benefits our plans can offer, which could materially and adversely affect the marketability of our plans and the number of people we serve. Any changes in standards or care delivery models applying to government health care programs, including Medicare and Medicaid, or our inability to maintain or improve our quality scores and star ratings to meet evolving government performance requirements or to match the performance of our competitors could result in limitations to our participation in or exclusion from these or other government programs, which could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial position and cash flows. CMS uses various payment mechanisms to allocate funding and adjust monthly capitation payments for Medicare programs. For Medicare Advantage plans, these adjustments are made according to the predicted health status of each beneficiary as supported by data from health care providers. For Medicare Part D plans, payment adjustments are driven by risk-sharing provisions based on a comparison of costs forecasted in our annual bids to actual prescription drug costs. Some state Medicaid programs utilize a similar process. For example, our UnitedHealthcare Medicare & Retirement and UnitedHealthcare Community & State businesses submit information relating to the health status of enrollees to CMS or state agencies for purposes of determining the amount of certain payments to us. CMS and the Office of Inspector General for HHS periodically perform risk adjustment data validation (RADV) audits of selected Medicare health plans to validate the coding practices of and supporting documentation maintained by health care providers. Some of our local plans have been selected for such audits, which in the past have resulted and in future periods could result in retrospective adjustments to payments made to our health plans, fines, corrective action plans or other adverse action by CMS. We have been and in the future may become involved in routine, regular and special governmental investigations, audits, reviews and assessments. Such investigations, audits, reviews or assessments sometimes arise out of, or prompt claims or class action lawsuits by private litigants or whistleblowers regarding, among other allegations, claims that we failed to disclose certain business practices or, as a government contractor, submitted false or erroneous claims to the government. Government investigations, audits, reviews and assessments could lead to government actions, which have resulted and in future periods could result in adverse publicity, the assessment of damages, civil or criminal fines or penalties, or other sanctions, including restrictions or changes in the way we conduct business, loss of licensure or exclusion from participation in government programs, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial position and cash flows.