UGI (UGI) AI Stock Analysis

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UGI

(NYSE:UGI)

76Outperform

UGI's overall stock score reflects its stable financial performance, strong technical indicators, and reasonable valuation. The positive earnings call further supports a favorable outlook, despite moderate debt levels and revenue volatility. The stock is well-positioned for growth with strategic investments and a solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Earnings

UGI announced F1Q25 adjusted EPS that beat Street and MSUSA estimates.

Growth and Expansion

Management is focused on new projects and acquisitions, indicating confidence in the company's future growth.

Negative Factors

Leverage and Debt

There is a long path forward at AmeriGas with significant leverage to be repaid, indicating ongoing challenges.

Operational Challenges

Challenges include operational fixes at AmeriGas still being a work-in-progress, a difficult comp year for Midstream & Marketing, potential regulatory lag at UGI Utilities, and impacts at UGI International related to damages at its LPG supply terminal in France.

UGI (UGI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$6.72B

Dividend Yield4.84%

Average Volume (3M)2.27M

Price to Earnings (P/E)12.3

Beta (1Y)0.61

Revenue Growth-14.01%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees9,750

SectorUtilities

Sector Strength90

IndustryRegulated Gas

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.54

Shares Outstanding214,813,000

10 Day Avg. Volume2,483,513

30 Day Avg. Volume2,270,340

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)1.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)10.90

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$36.00

Price Target Upside14.21% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

UGI Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUGI Corporation is a diversified energy services holding company engaged primarily in the transportation, distribution, storage, and marketing of energy products and related services. Operating through various subsidiaries, UGI provides natural gas, propane, butane, and electricity to customers in the United States and internationally. The company has a significant presence in both the regulated and unregulated energy markets, offering services that cater to residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers.

How the Company Makes MoneyUGI Corporation makes money through several key revenue streams. In the regulated energy segment, UGI generates income by distributing and transporting natural gas and electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. This segment typically ensures stable and predictable revenue due to regulated pricing structures. In the unregulated segment, UGI earns revenue by selling propane and butane through its subsidiaries like AmeriGas and UGI International, which operate in the U.S. and various European countries. The company benefits from its extensive supply chain network, allowing it to efficiently market and deliver energy products. Additionally, UGI engages in energy marketing and trading activities, which contribute to its earnings by capitalizing on market opportunities and price fluctuations. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions also play a vital role, enabling UGI to expand its market reach and enhance its service offerings.

UGI Financial Statement Overview

Summary

UGI's financial performance reflects a well-managed utility company with strengths in cash flow generation and profitability despite revenue fluctuations. The balance sheet is solid but carries a moderate level of debt, which requires careful monitoring. Overall, UGI is in a stable financial position, but attention is needed on revenue growth and managing leverage.

Income Statement

Positive

UGI's income statement shows a volatile revenue trajectory. Recent TTM data indicates a decline in revenue compared to the previous year, with a Gross Profit Margin of 61.99% and Net Profit Margin of 7.72%. While EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 13.31% and 21.11%, respectively, the company has faced challenges in maintaining consistent profitability due to fluctuations in revenue and expenses.

Balance Sheet

Positive

UGI maintains a stable financial structure with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 1.49, indicating moderate leverage. The Return on Equity stands at a healthy 12.01%, reflecting good profitability on shareholders' investment. The Equity Ratio is 29.71%, suggesting a balanced approach towards equity financing. However, the high total debt relative to equity may pose future risks if not managed effectively.

Cash Flow

Positive

UGI demonstrates strong cash flow management with a significant Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 2.23, indicating robust cash conversion. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.07, showing effective capital expenditure management. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate shows a substantial increase, highlighting improved cash generation capabilities.

TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
7.12B	7.21B	8.93B	10.11B	7.45B	6.56B
	Gross Profit
3.49B	3.68B	1.99B	4.13B	4.83B	3.41B
	EBIT
948.00M	770.00M	-1.44B	1.67B	2.35B	982.00M
	EBITDA
1.79B	1.28B	-886.00M	2.19B	2.94B	1.58B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
550.00M	269.00M	-1.50B	1.07B	1.47B	532.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
284.50M	213.00M	241.00M	405.00M	855.00M	336.00M
	Total Assets
6.32B	15.10B	15.40B	17.57B	16.72B	13.98B
	Total Debt
2.23B	6.68B	7.25B	7.00B	6.82B	6.38B
	Net Debt
1.96B	6.46B	7.01B	6.59B	5.96B	6.04B
	Total Liabilities
4.23B	10.74B	11.01B	11.50B	11.19B	9.85B
	Stockholders Equity
1.78B	4.34B	4.39B	6.07B	5.52B	4.13B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
587.00M	386.00M	133.00M	-88.00M	791.00M	447.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.23B	1.18B	1.11B	716.00M	1.48B	1.10B
	Investing Cash Flow
-859.00M	-792.00M	-1.08B	-1.01B	-1.11B	-649.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-414.00M	-506.00M	-168.00M	-51.00M	166.00M	-635.00M

UGI Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price31.52

Price Trends

50DMA

32.27

Negative

100DMA

30.12

Positive

200DMA

26.72

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.33

Positive

RSI

61.21

Neutral

STOCH

48.24

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 31.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.44, below the 50-day MA of 32.27, and above the 200-day MA of 26.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UGI.

UGI Risk Analysis

UGI disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UGI reported the most risks in the “Production” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

UGI Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CPK	76 Outperform	$2.92B	24.08	9.00%	2.02%	17.72%	11.33%
UGI	76 Outperform	$6.72B	12.29	12.22%	4.84%	-14.01%	―
SR	75 Outperform	$4.36B	18.09	7.76%	4.13%	-3.96%	11.40%
OGS	75 Outperform	$4.40B	18.78	7.59%	3.61%	-12.16%	-5.73%
NJR	66 Neutral	$4.78B	14.34	15.15%	3.72%	9.18%	36.67%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$11.75B	15.50	6.20%	4.60%	5.53%	-8.93%
SWX	63 Neutral	$5.04B	25.43	5.84%	3.57%	-5.92%	29.47%

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

UGI

31.52

9.36

42.24%

CPK

Chesapeake Utilities

131.11

31.21

31.24%

Spire

75.04

19.00

33.90%

NJR

New Jersey Resources

47.82

7.59

18.87%

SWX

Southwest Gas

71.09

0.60

0.85%

OGS

ONE Gas

75.00

15.24

25.50%

UGI Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 5, 2025 | % Change Since: 1.61% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

UGI Corporation's Q1 2025 earnings call showed strong financial performance with significant EPS growth and strategic investments in infrastructure. The company was recognized for customer service excellence and made a strategic acquisition in the midstream segment. However, challenges remain with lower EBITDA in the midstream segment and performance issues at AmeriGas. Overall, the positive aspects slightly outweigh the negatives.

Highlights

Record Adjusted Diluted EPS

UGI reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.37, which is 14% higher than the prior year period.

Strong Investment in Infrastructure

Over $200 million in capital investment was deployed, primarily in natural gas businesses, enhancing system reliability and supporting customer additions.

Recognition of Customer Service Excellence

UGI Utilities was recognized as a Cogent 2024 utility customer champion, validating its customer-centric approach and high satisfaction levels.

Successful Acquisition and Expansion in Midstream Segment

Acquisition of Superior Appalachian for $120 million, which is expected to be accretive to earnings and enhance future synergy.

Improved Liquidity Position

UGI had available liquidity of $1.5 billion at the end of the quarter.

Lowlights

Decline in Midstream and Marketing EBITDA

The segment reported EBITDA of $95 million compared to $102 million in the prior year, due to lower margins from gathering and processing activities.

Challenges in AmeriGas Performance

EBIT at AmeriGas was up $3 million, but higher income tax expenses led to a 28 cent decline in adjusted diluted EPS.

Lower LPG Volumes at AmeriGas

LPG volumes were down 1% due to customer attrition, despite the offset from colder weather.

Company Guidance

During the UGI Corporation Q1 2025 earnings call, several key metrics and strategic initiatives were highlighted. The company reported an adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.37, representing a 14% increase from the prior year. Capital investments of over $200 million were deployed, primarily in the natural gas sector, enhancing infrastructure modernization. UGI's midstream and marketing segment completed RNG facilities and acquired Superior Appalachian for $120 million, a transaction expected to be accretive to earnings within the first year. The company also filed for a $110 million gas base rate increase with the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission to support $750 million in system improvements. Additionally, UGI maintained a guidance range of $2.75 to $3.05 for fiscal 2025. AmeriGas was noted for its organizational restructuring to improve service quality and financial performance, while UGI International continued to demonstrate strong cash generation capacity. The company reiterated its commitment to disciplined capital allocation, operational excellence, and long-term shareholder value creation.

UGI Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

UGI Corporation Reports Strong Q1 2025 Earnings

Positive

Feb 6, 2025

UGI Corporation reported its fiscal first-quarter results for 2025, showing a notable increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share from the previous year, driven by strong performance in its natural gas and international propane businesses. The company also filed for a gas base rate increase in Pennsylvania and announced the redemption of AmeriGas’s 2025 Senior Notes, aiming to improve operational performance and deliver consistent growth.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.