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Travere Therapeutics (TVTX)
NASDAQ:TVTX

Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) AI Stock Analysis

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Travere Therapeutics

(NASDAQ:TVTX)

50Neutral
Travere Therapeutics' overall score reflects financial instability due to persistent losses and high leverage. Positive factors include promising sales growth and strategic expansion plans for FILSPARI, balanced by significant challenges such as declining sales of Thiola and a considerable net loss. The technical indicators suggest modest market confidence, while valuation metrics highlight risk due to ongoing losses.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Travere’s FY 2024 earnings update highlighted robust demand for Filspari in IgA Nephropathy (IgAN), with 4Q 2024 net sales of $49.6M, inline with the “~$50M” of sales that the company pre-announced back in January, and above the ~$45M that we and Consensus had expected at the time.
Market Opportunity
If approved, Filspari would be the first approved therapeutic for the treatment of FSGS, which is a significant commercial opportunity.
Regulatory Approval
The FDA accepted Travere’s sNDA to reduce liver function test monitoring frequency, a critical step to streamline commercial adoption.
Negative Factors
Investment Risk
Despite the stock's strong 12-month performance, the shares can continue to move higher on a strong IgAN launch and progress with FSGS.
Lack of Guidance
The company did not provide FY25 guidance for Filspari, which may disappoint some.

Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Travere Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTravere Therapeutics, Inc. (TVTX) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on identifying, developing, and delivering life-changing therapies to people with rare diseases. The company operates within the healthcare and biotechnology sectors, and its core products and services revolve around the development and commercialization of treatments for rare and underserved medical conditions. Travere Therapeutics is dedicated to advancing its pipeline of novel therapeutics and improving the lives of patients living with rare diseases.
How the Company Makes MoneyTravere Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the sale of its commercial products, which include FDA-approved therapies for rare diseases. The company's revenue model involves the commercialization of these therapies, which are often priced at a premium due to their specialized nature and the small patient populations they serve. Travere also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, which can provide additional revenue streams through milestone payments, royalties, and licensing agreements. These partnerships can be crucial for expanding the company's reach and enhancing its research and development capabilities. Key factors contributing to Travere's earnings include successful product launches, the expansion of its product portfolio, and the ability to navigate regulatory pathways effectively to bring new therapies to market.

Travere Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Travere Therapeutics is struggling financially with consistent negative earnings and declining revenues. The company faces high leverage and financial instability due to a high debt-to-equity ratio and negative cash flows. Strong cash reserves are a positive aspect, but the financial outlook remains concerning without improvements in revenue and cost management.
Income Statement
30
Negative
Travere Therapeutics shows a consistent negative earnings trend with declining revenues. The gross profit margin is strong at 100%, but net profit margins are deeply negative due to high operating expenses, leading to negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. Revenue growth is inconsistent, with a decline in the most recent year.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio due to its significant liabilities compared to equity, indicating high leverage. The equity ratio is low, reflecting limited shareholder equity. Although cash reserves are substantial, stockholders' equity has declined substantially, posing a financial risk.
Cash Flow
25
Negative
Operating cash flow is negative, indicating cash outflows from core operations. Free cash flow is also negative, with a declining trend, signaling challenges in sustaining operations without external financing. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is poor, highlighting inefficiencies in converting income into cash flow.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
233.18M145.24M212.02M227.49M198.32M
Gross Profit
233.18M133.79M204.43M220.71M192.19M
EBIT
-320.63M-376.74M-251.56M-139.50M-75.38M
EBITDA
-265.77M-326.25M-299.42M-186.68M-143.95M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-321.55M-111.40M-278.48M-180.09M-169.43M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
370.70M566.85M450.25M552.88M361.59M
Total Assets
594.13M788.91M672.59M776.63M607.44M
Total Debt
401.58M404.78M407.49M261.99M215.34M
Net Debt
343.05M346.61M345.80M96.23M130.57M
Total Liabilities
535.05M588.10M629.73M474.52M396.23M
Stockholders Equity
59.08M200.81M42.85M302.11M211.21M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-338.69M-322.28M-214.85M-38.94M-162.59M
Operating Cash Flow
-237.47M-280.02M-186.29M-14.79M-42.74M
Investing Cash Flow
99.33M55.78M-32.55M-137.62M-61.33M
Financing Cash Flow
139.42M218.75M117.57M231.68M127.71M

Travere Therapeutics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price20.37
Price Trends
50DMA
20.64
Negative
100DMA
19.41
Positive
200DMA
15.42
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Negative
RSI
49.95
Neutral
STOCH
69.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TVTX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.88, below the 50-day MA of 20.64, and above the 200-day MA of 15.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TVTX.

Travere Therapeutics Risk Analysis

Travere Therapeutics disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Travere Therapeutics reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Travere Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$13.89B33.118.05%17.35%151.40%
75
Outperform
$164.26B40.4467.55%2.99%18.64%-39.39%
67
Neutral
$6.97B30.1319.71%52.97%
64
Neutral
$129.05B-3.15%11.64%-114.72%
54
Neutral
$3.58B-214.50%29.01%23.93%
50
Neutral
$1.86B-246.75%17.27%10.01%
49
Neutral
$6.86B0.72-52.93%2.49%20.83%1.11%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TVTX
Travere Therapeutics
20.37
12.66
164.20%
AMGN
Amgen
305.77
29.86
10.82%
BMRN
BioMarin Pharmaceutical
72.83
-14.51
-16.61%
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
502.55
84.54
20.22%
SRPT
Sarepta Therapeutics
71.81
-57.65
-44.53%
RARE
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical
38.89
-7.80
-16.71%

Travere Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 20, 2025 | % Change Since: -13.61% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a generally positive sentiment with significant achievements such as FDA approval and sales growth of FILSPARI, expansion plans into FSGS indication, and strong financial performance. However, challenges remain with declining sales of Thiola due to generic competition and a substantial net loss for the year.
Highlights
FDA Approval and Sales Growth of FILSPARI
FILSPARI received full FDA approval for IgA nephropathy in September 2024, leading to a 40% increase in net sales in Q4 compared to Q3. This approval allowed for broader prescribing to a wider patient population.
Expansion into FSGS Indication
Plans to submit an sNDA for FILSPARI for FSGS indication by the end of Q1 2025, supported by data from DUPLEX and DUET studies. This could potentially lead to the first-ever FDA-approved therapy for FSGS.
Strong Financial Performance
2024 net product sales grew by nearly 80% compared to 2023, driven by FILSPARI's strong uptake. FILSPARI generated $49.6 million in Q4 alone, marking a 40% growth over the previous quarter.
Positive Physician Feedback
Nephrologists are showing increased interest in FILSPARI due to its non-immunosuppressive profile and effectiveness in achieving complete remission in IgA nephropathy patients.
Successful Financing
Completed a successful financing in November 2024, raising approximately $134.7 million to support strategic priorities.
Lowlights
Thiola Sales Decline
Thiola and Thiola EC net product sales decreased slightly in Q4 due to generic competition. Further headwinds are anticipated throughout 2025.
Significant Net Loss
Net loss for the full year 2024 was $321.5 million, compared to $111.4 million in 2023, partly due to the absence of a $265 million gain from the previous year.
Potential REMS Modification Challenges
FILSPARI is under a REMS program requiring monthly liver monitoring, which may limit patient accessibility. The company aims to modify this requirement to quarterly monitoring.
Company Guidance
During the Travere Therapeutics Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call, significant progress and strategic priorities were discussed. FILSPARI's net sales grew nearly 40% in Q4 compared to Q3, driven by its full FDA approval for IgA nephropathy and increased demand. The company plans to submit a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for an FSGS indication by the end of Q1 2025, supported by data from the DUPLEX and DUET studies. FILSPARI's role as a foundational therapy in IgAN was emphasized, with a focus on early treatment and lower proteinuria targets. The company also reported net product sales of $73.5 million in Q4, with FILSPARI contributing $49.6 million. Travere aims to expand FILSPARI's use and continue optimizing their pegtibatinase program for HCU. The financial outlook for 2025 includes significant growth in net product sales and disciplined investment in strategic priorities.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.