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OceanaGold Corporation (TSE:OGC)
TSX:OGC

OceanaGold (OGC) AI Stock Analysis

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OceanaGold

(TSX:OGC)

74Outperform
OceanaGold's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including record production and financial results, reserve increases, and strategic shareholder returns. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to bearish trends, and the valuation indicates potential investment opportunities. Key risks include industry volatility and operational challenges.
Positive Factors
Exploration Budget
OGC looks to build on this success, budgeting $40M for exploration across all four sites, the highest exploration budget in five years.
Mineral Reserves
Total mineral reserves increased 27% to 6.2Moz Au, net of mining depletion at a 15% higher grade.
Negative Factors
Gold Production Guidance
Updated mid-term guidance was slightly more conservative, featuring both lower gold production and higher AISC.

OceanaGold (OGC) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

OceanaGold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOceanaGold Corporation (OGC) is a multinational gold mining company headquartered in Melbourne, Australia. The company operates in the gold and copper mining sectors, with a focus on exploration, development, and operation of mineral resources. OceanaGold has a diverse portfolio of assets located in the Philippines, New Zealand, and the United States, and is committed to responsible mining practices and sustainable development.
How the Company Makes MoneyOceanaGold generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of gold and copper from its mining operations. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of gold bullion and copper concentrate. OceanaGold operates several mines, including the Didipio mine in the Philippines, the Macraes and Waihi operations in New Zealand, and the Haile Gold Mine in the United States. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and off-take agreements that facilitate the sale and distribution of its mineral products. Additionally, fluctuations in global commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies are significant factors influencing the company's earnings.

OceanaGold Financial Statement Overview

Summary
OceanaGold's financial performance is strong with substantial revenue and profit growth, a solid balance sheet with minimal leverage, and robust cash flow generation. The company is well-positioned in the mining industry, although it must navigate industry-specific risks such as commodity price volatility.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
OceanaGold shows strong revenue growth with a 26.09% increase from 2023 to 2024, indicating robust performance. The gross profit margin improved to 28.77%, and the net profit margin increased to 14.48%, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 21.21% and 45.65%, respectively, showcasing efficient operations. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive trajectory with significant revenue and profit growth, although the cyclical nature of mining could pose risks.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet is stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04, suggesting minimal leverage. The equity ratio is strong at 73.11%, indicating a solid equity base. Return on equity improved to 10.30%, reflecting better utilization of shareholder funds. However, the potential risks include industry volatility affecting asset values and future liabilities. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates a strong equity position with manageable debt levels.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
OceanaGold's cash flow is robust with a 522.74% increase in free cash flow from 2023 to 2024, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 3.17, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.14, reflecting strong cash flow relative to earnings. The company efficiently manages capital expenditure to sustain operations. The main risk is variability in cash flow due to commodity price fluctuations. Overall, the cash flow statement indicates strong cash generation and efficient capital management.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.29B1.03B984.70M744.70M500.10M
Gross Profit
372.30M298.70M259.80M232.70M45.10M
EBIT
274.40M187.80M192.90M146.80M-37.30M
EBITDA
590.80M369.80M378.90M166.40M144.10M
Net Income Common Stockholders
187.40M83.10M132.60M-3.70M-150.40M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
193.50M61.70M83.20M133.00M179.00M
Total Assets
2.49B2.45B2.29B2.26B2.25B
Total Debt
71.60M231.80M253.40M370.90M312.90M
Net Debt
-121.90M170.10M170.20M237.90M133.90M
Total Liabilities
562.60M713.20M617.30M710.00M688.40M
Stockholders Equity
1.82B1.73B1.67B1.55B1.56B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
213.70M34.30M87.00M-63.30M-54.90M
Operating Cash Flow
593.90M384.20M368.70M261.40M198.80M
Investing Cash Flow
-348.70M-341.80M-280.80M-315.80M-225.80M
Financing Cash Flow
-120.50M-57.80M-130.20M25.10M159.50M

OceanaGold Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.85
Price Trends
50DMA
4.13
Negative
100DMA
4.12
Negative
200DMA
3.80
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.12
Positive
RSI
43.68
Neutral
STOCH
32.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:OGC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.08, below the 50-day MA of 4.13, and above the 200-day MA of 3.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:OGC.

OceanaGold Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (46)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSAEM
80
Outperform
$72.92B26.999.42%1.65%26.99%-6.63%
TSK
75
Outperform
$19.78B14.4214.66%1.14%16.53%206.89%
TSOGC
74
Outperform
$2.70B10.0810.55%0.78%28.24%132.38%
TSABX
74
Outperform
$45.98B15.669.00%2.23%15.40%72.49%
TSELD
74
Outperform
$4.26B10.698.12%27.29%
TSNGD
66
Neutral
$3.43B24.6211.14%18.32%
46
Neutral
$2.64B-3.89-29.36%3.33%2.89%-29.66%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:OGC
OceanaGold
3.85
1.13
41.65%
TSE:K
Kinross Gold
15.99
8.39
110.34%
TSE:NGD
New Gold
4.43
2.15
94.30%
TSE:ABX
Barrick Gold
26.62
5.55
26.35%
TSE:AEM
Agnico Eagle
145.22
70.95
95.52%
TSE:ELD
Eldorado Gold
21.06
4.07
23.96%

OceanaGold Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 19, 2025 | % Change Since: -11.96% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment with record financial and operational achievements, substantial reserve additions, and strong shareholder returns, though challenges such as ore hardness at Haile and production disruptions at Didipio present notable concerns.
Highlights
Record Production and Financial Performance
OceanaGold reported record quarterly and annual net profit, free cash flow, and production at Haile, with free cash flow of $245 million in 2024, representing a 15% after-tax yield on the enterprise value.
Reserve and Resource Increases
The company increased its reserves by 27% net of mining depletion with outstanding exploration results, notably adding 1.2 million ounces at 9.2 grams per tonne gold from the Wharekirauponga ore body at Waihi.
Strong Dividend and Share Buyback Program
The Board approved a doubling of the annual dividend and authorized up to $100 million in share buybacks for 2025, reflecting strong shareholder returns.
Operational Improvements at Waihi
Waihi delivered its best quarter since Martha Underground began operating in 2021, with improvements in remnant mining contributing to significantly lower all-in sustaining costs.
Lowlights
Challenges at Didipio
Production at Didipio was impacted by lower mining rates due to stope redesign and severe weather events, including four typhoons, which delayed underground mining progress.
Ore Hardness Issues at Haile
Haile faced unexpectedly hard ore, slowing mining and processing rates and contributing to higher costs, impacting overall production growth.
Increased Costs and 2025 Guidance
The 2025 cost guidance for all-in sustaining costs is significantly higher at $1,900-$2,050 per ounce, driven by increased stripping and maintenance costs, as well as inflationary pressures.
Company Guidance
During the OceanaGold Corporation's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call, the company reported several record-breaking metrics, indicating strong performance and strategic growth. The company achieved record quarterly and annual net profits and a record $245 million in free cash flow, representing a 15% after-tax yield on its enterprise value. Gold production in the fourth quarter increased by 12%, while all-in sustaining costs per ounce decreased by 10% compared to the previous quarter. Haile, Macraes, and Waihi all contributed to higher production and lower unit costs. The company's reserves increased by 27% net of mining depletion, driven by exploration success. Additionally, OceanaGold generated an annual revenue of $1.3 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 58% in the quarter. The Board approved a doubling of the annual dividend and authorized up to $100 million in share buybacks for 2025, signaling strong shareholder returns. The guidance for 2025 and 2026 reflects organic growth, with a 20% increase in gold production expected by 2026, supported by investments in exploration and development.

OceanaGold Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
OceanaGold Advances Waihi North Project with Fast-Track Application and New Discoveries
Positive
Mar 4, 2025

OceanaGold has submitted an application for fast-track approval for its Waihi North Project in New Zealand, which includes the Wharekirauponga Underground. This move is expected to expedite the permitting process by the end of 2025, marking a significant milestone in the project’s development. The company also reported promising results from its exploration program at Wharekirauponga, with high-grade mineralization identified in several drill holes. These developments underscore OceanaGold’s commitment to expanding its resource base and enhancing its position in the gold mining industry.

Business Operations and Strategy
OceanaGold Unveils New Discovery and Boosts Exploration Budget at Haile
Positive
Feb 24, 2025

OceanaGold has announced a new discovery and high-grade drill results at the Haile Gold Mine in the United States, highlighting the potential of the Pisces and Horseshoe areas. The company has increased its 2025 exploration budget by 20% to $10 million, reflecting its commitment to enhancing shareholder value through exploration success.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
OceanaGold Unveils New Discovery and Boosts Exploration Budget at Haile Mine
Positive
Feb 24, 2025

OceanaGold has announced a significant new discovery and high-grade drill results at its Haile Gold Mine in the United States. The exploration success at Haile, particularly the Pisces and Horseshoe areas, has led to an increase in the 2025 exploration budget by 20% to $10 million, the largest since the mine’s production began. This move underscores the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value through exploration, with the new findings potentially benefiting mining operations due to their proximity to existing infrastructure.

Executive/Board Changes
OceanaGold Strengthens Board with New Appointment
Positive
Feb 20, 2025

OceanaGold Corporation has appointed Stefanie Loader as a Non-Executive Director to its Board of Directors. Loader brings extensive experience in geology, mining operations, and corporate strategy, with a history of leadership roles in major mining companies such as Rio Tinto and CMOC International. Her appointment is expected to enhance OceanaGold’s board with her expertise in mineral exploration and project development, potentially influencing the company’s strategic direction and value for shareholders.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
OceanaGold Reports 27% Increase in Mineral Reserves for 2024
Positive
Feb 19, 2025

OceanaGold has reported a significant increase in its mineral reserves and resources for the year ending 2024, with a 27% rise in mineral reserves totaling 6.2 million ounces of gold, net of mining depletion, at a higher average grade. Key developments include the declaration of initial mineral reserves at Wharekirauponga and increases in reserves at Didipio, alongside a boost in indicated mineral resources at Waihi and Macraes. This growth reflects the company’s strategic focus on value creation through exploration, underscored by a planned $40 million investment in exploration for 2025, marking its highest budget in five years.

Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
OceanaGold Achieves Record Production and Financial Milestones in 2024
Positive
Feb 19, 2025

OceanaGold Corporation has reported its financial and operational results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, achieving record outcomes. The company met its updated production guidance with a substantial increase in annual production, resulting in a record net profit of $192 million and free cash flow of $245 million. Key achievements include a doubling of the annual dividend and plans to repurchase up to $100 million of shares in 2025, highlighting a robust financial position.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
OceanaGold to Announce Q4 and Full Year 2024 Results
Neutral
Jan 21, 2025

OceanaGold Corporation announced that it will release its fourth quarter and full year 2024 operational and financial results on February 19, 2025. A conference call is scheduled for February 20, 2025, to discuss these results, indicating the company’s ongoing transparency and engagement with stakeholders. The announcement reflects the company’s commitment to maintaining strong communication with investors and stakeholders as it continues its operations across multiple countries.

OceanaGold Embraces New Zealand’s Fast-track Act
Dec 18, 2024

OceanaGold is optimistic about New Zealand’s new Fast-track Approvals Act, which streamlines the permitting process for significant projects like their Waihi North Project. The company plans to submit its application in early 2025 and hopes to begin underground development work by 2026, aiming to boost investment and benefit shareholders and local communities.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.