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Docebo (TSE:DCBO)
TSX:DCBO

Docebo (DCBO) AI Stock Analysis

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Docebo

(TSX:DCBO)

70Outperform
Docebo's strong financial performance and positive strategic initiatives from the earnings call are key strengths, contributing to a solid foundation for future growth. However, technical indicators reflect current bearish momentum and high valuation levels. Despite these challenges, the company's focus on innovation and strategic positioning supports a favorable long-term outlook.
Positive Factors
Contract Value
Record average contract value from new logos at $83K, up 17% YoY, and a continued increase in overall average contract value at $55K, up 7% YoY.
EBITDA Margins
AI investments are expected to drive incremental efficiency, keeping the company on track for mid-20s EBITDA margins.
Financial Performance
Docebo's revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeded expectations, showcasing strong financial performance.
Negative Factors
Fiscal Guidance
The company's fiscal guidance appears below consensus due to a 1.5% FX headwind.
Guidance
Q4 ARR and 2025 guidance still came in below expectations as a result of customer downsizing.
Subscription Revenue Growth
Guidance looking for 13-14% subscription revenue growth in constant currency in 2025 seems like a bit of a head fake.

Docebo (DCBO) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Docebo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDocebo (DCBO) is a leading provider of cloud-based learning management systems (LMS) that leverages artificial intelligence to deliver personalized and scalable corporate training solutions. The company operates primarily in the technology and education sectors, serving a global customer base across various industries. Its core products include the Docebo Learning Suite, which is designed to create, manage, and measure corporate training programs efficiently.
How the Company Makes MoneyDocebo generates revenue through a subscription-based model for its cloud-based learning management platform. Customers typically pay recurring fees to access the platform, which offers a suite of tools for creating, delivering, and tracking learning content. Additional revenue streams include professional services such as implementation, integration, and training services that help clients maximize the value of the platform. Strategic partnerships with technology and content providers enhance the platform's functionality and expand its market reach, contributing to Docebo's earnings.

Docebo Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Docebo demonstrates strong financial health with significant revenue growth and profitability improvements. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, and cash flows are strong and sustainable. These factors contribute to a positive financial outlook, although the company's asset base is relatively modest compared to industry peers.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Docebo has shown strong revenue growth, with a 20% increase from last year. The gross profit margin is robust at 81%, and there is a significant improvement in profitability, with the net profit margin rising to 12% from 2% the previous year. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved, indicating enhanced operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet is stable, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03, indicating minimal leverage. The equity ratio stands at 30%, suggesting a healthy portion of assets funded by equity. Return on equity is strong at 46%, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. However, the overall asset size is relatively modest for the industry.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Cash flow generation is robust, with a free cash flow growth rate of 83%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.09, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income is also strong at 1.05, highlighting good cash flow sustainability.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
216.93M180.84M142.91M104.24M62.92M
Gross Profit
175.64M146.34M114.73M83.46M51.38M
EBIT
21.29M-3.71M-6.93M-12.98M-5.49M
EBITDA
27.28M8.28M-15.71M-10.92M-6.04M
Net Income Common Stockholders
26.74M2.84M7.02M-13.60M-7.65M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
92.58M72.03M216.29M215.32M219.66M
Total Assets
190.71M158.38M283.67M268.12M254.61M
Total Debt
1.50M2.11M3.07M4.00M3.82M
Net Debt
-91.05M-69.84M-213.23M-211.32M-215.84M
Total Liabilities
132.95M107.65M91.46M77.47M53.94M
Stockholders Equity
57.76M50.72M192.21M190.66M200.67M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
28.00M15.33M1.21M-4.40M3.71M
Operating Cash Flow
29.25M15.96M2.29M-3.25M5.16M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.50M-9.52M-2.15M-1.15M-3.90M
Financing Cash Flow
-6.84M-151.00M1.58M422.00K172.27M

Docebo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price43.17
Price Trends
50DMA
54.74
Negative
100DMA
61.19
Negative
200DMA
58.67
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.86
Negative
RSI
29.50
Positive
STOCH
60.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:DCBO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 43.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.13, below the 50-day MA of 54.74, and below the 200-day MA of 58.67, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 29.50 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:DCBO.

Docebo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$1.31B35.4849.29%21.78%868.71%
TSSYZ
68
Neutral
C$189.72M-1.93%0.49%-13.99%-421.95%
TSKNR
61
Neutral
C$104.58M12.23134.03%-47.80%
58
Neutral
$21.97B10.49-18.75%2.40%4.80%-25.17%
TSVQS
42
Neutral
C$10.47M-103.49%6.14%61.43%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:DCBO
Docebo
43.17
-25.32
-36.97%
TSE:KNR
Kontrol Technologies
2.50
0.00
0.00%
TSE:VQS
VIQ Solutions
0.20
-0.04
-16.67%
TSE:SYZ
Sylogist
8.11
-0.49
-5.70%

Docebo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 28, 2025 | % Change Since: -19.83% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong adoption of new products, increased contract values, and strategic moves such as FedRAMP progress and partnerships, suggesting a positive outlook. However, challenges like the decline in net revenue retention and headcount reductions indicate areas of concern.
Highlights
Strong New Product Adoption
The three new product modules, including community and analytics components, have significantly contributed to the quarter's success with over 15% attach rates, exceeding expectations.
Growth in Average Contract Value
Average contract value for new customers increased from $70,000 to $83,000, indicating strong enterprise demand and successful upselling strategies.
FedRAMP Progress
Docebo is on track to achieve FedRAMP Authority to Operate (ATO) status by the end of Q3 2025, which will enable bidding on federal contracts, a significant growth opportunity.
Strategic Partnerships
Significant progress with system integrators, with partnerships contributing to a meaningful portion of pipeline and expected to drive future growth.
Long-Term Contracts and Retention
A 200% increase in contracts of five years or greater, indicating strong customer retention and stickiness.
Lowlights
Net Revenue Retention Decline
Net Revenue Retention Rate decreased to 100% from 104%, impacted by a large customer downgrade and customers right-sizing their contracts.
Headcount Reductions
The company announced a headcount reduction as part of its transition to an AI-first company, aiming to streamline operations and reinvest in key areas.
Challenging SMB Market
Significant pricing pressure and competition in the SMB market, which is not a strategic focus for Docebo, leading to a shift in focus to mid-enterprise and enterprise markets.
Company Guidance
During the Docebo Q4 2024 earnings call, the company highlighted several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The CEO, Alessio Artuffo, discussed the company's competitive position, noting the introduction of new product modules, which contributed significantly to the quarter's results. Docebo currently serves over 40 million users worldwide, with projections to reach 100 million users in the next five years. The company emphasized its transition to an AI-first learning platform, leveraging generative AI (GenAI) to enhance product capabilities and user experience. The call also mentioned that the new product modules had an attach rate of over 15% since their release. Furthermore, Docebo expects to achieve FedRAMP ATO status by the end of Q3, which will allow the company to bid on government contracts. With $220 million in ARR and an average contract value (ACV) increase from $70,000 to $83,000, Docebo remains focused on enterprise growth, despite facing macroeconomic challenges that affected net dollar retention rate (NDRR), which decreased to 100% from 104%. The call concluded with a discussion on capital allocation strategies, including potential stock buybacks and M&A opportunities, as well as the company's ongoing focus on equipping itself with the skills needed for future success.

Docebo Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsFinancial Disclosures
Docebo Reports Strong Q4 and Fiscal Year 2024 Results, Driven by New Product Launches
Positive
Feb 28, 2025

Docebo reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, with revenue and profitability exceeding expectations. The successful launch of new products like AI Authoring, Advanced Analytics, and Communities has bolstered its enterprise pipeline, indicating robust growth prospects. The company achieved a 16% increase in total revenue for Q4 and a 20% increase for the fiscal year, alongside significant improvements in net income and adjusted EBITDA, highlighting its solid financial performance and strategic positioning in the market.

Docebo Announces CFO Departure Amidst Strong Growth
Jan 2, 2025

Docebo Inc. announced the departure of CFO Sukaran Mehta, who will leave to pursue a leadership role in a private equity portfolio company, with Brandon Farber stepping in as interim CFO. The company reassures investors that Mehta’s exit does not affect its current financial outlook, maintaining a strong foundation for future growth. Docebo remains committed to its position as a global leader in AI-powered learning solutions.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.