Athabasca Oil (ATH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.45B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.00M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.34
• Revenue Growth: 13.46%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 181
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.87
• Shares Outstanding: 504,536,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,548,986
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,002,455
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.98
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 4.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$6.25
• Price Target Upside: 28.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

Athabasca Oil's stock is positively evaluated due to its strong financial performance, undervalued position, and favorable corporate events. The technical analysis presents some caution due to the current trading trend, but the overall outlook is robust given the company's financial trajectory and strategic initiatives.

Positive Factors

Liquidity

The company has ample liquidity to navigate weaker prices due to its large cash position.

Reserves Growth

ATH's 1P reserves grew by ~7%, largely driven by additions from 46,000 acres of DEC's lands.

Valuation

Athabasca’s valuation is well-supported by its strong balance sheet, long reserve life, commitment to accelerating shareholder returns, and volume growth.

Negative Factors

Credit Trends

Credit trends may continue to weigh on the company's financial health.

Stock Performance

ATH's stock has fallen by ~18% year-to-date, primarily due to tariff threats and OPEC+ production unwinds.

Volume Impact

Lower December volumes might affect the company's overall performance negatively.

Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Athabasca Oil Corporation (ATH) is a Canadian energy company focused on the exploration, development, and production of thermal and light oil resources in Alberta's Athabasca region. The company operates in two main segments: Thermal Oil and Light Oil, leveraging advanced technologies to extract resources efficiently and sustainably. Athabasca Oil is committed to responsible energy development with an emphasis on environmental stewardship and community engagement.

How the Company Makes Money

Athabasca Oil Corporation generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of crude oil. In its Thermal Oil segment, the company uses steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technology to extract bitumen, which is then upgraded and sold as synthetic crude oil. In the Light Oil segment, Athabasca explores and develops conventional oil and gas plays, producing light crude oil and natural gas liquids. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by global oil prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. Key revenue streams include the sale of diluted bitumen, light oil, and natural gas liquids. Athabasca also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to optimize resource development and access infrastructure, which can enhance its revenue potential.

Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Athabasca Oil demonstrates a strong financial position with significant improvements in revenue, profitability, and cash flow. The company has a robust balance sheet with low leverage and strong operational efficiency, positioning it well for future growth.

Income Statement

Athabasca Oil has demonstrated a strong recovery in its financial performance. The company has achieved significant revenue growth from 2023 to 2024, with total revenue rising from $1.2 billion to $1.44 billion, marking a growth rate of 20.65%. Gross profit margin improved to 52.13% in 2024. While the net profit margin has improved significantly to 32.43% in 2024, the lack of EBIT data limits deeper profitability analysis. Despite this, EBITDA margin increased to 54.34%, showing strong operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows stability with a strong equity position. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.11, indicating low financial leverage. Return on equity is robust at 26.78%, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio is also strong at 70.60%, indicating a solid asset base funded by equity. The company has a substantial cash position, enhancing its financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is strong with a significant increase in free cash flow from $165.7 million in 2023 to $289.5 million in 2024, representing a growth rate of 74.72%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.19, indicating strong cash generation relative to income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.62 suggests good conversion of income into free cash flow, supporting future growth and debt reduction.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.44B	1.20B	1.50B	1.02B	464.65M
	Gross Profit
751.90M	294.80M	731.03M	564.58M	159.88M
	EBIT
0.00	0.00	286.76M	307.30M	-187.28M
	EBITDA
783.59M	111.83M	370.67M	649.06M	-457.96M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
467.74M	-51.22M	572.27M	457.61M	-720.71M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
344.84M	343.31M	197.53M	223.06M	165.20M
	Total Assets
2.47B	2.05B	2.23B	1.74B	1.43B
	Total Debt
195.83M	185.54M	206.13M	384.30M	559.50M
	Net Debt
-149.00M	-157.77M	8.61M	161.24M	394.30M
	Total Liabilities
610.88M	465.18M	519.86M	716.17M	858.96M
	Stockholders Equity
1.75B	1.58B	1.71B	1.03B	567.02M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
289.50M	165.69M	168.17M	102.11M	-134.55M
	Operating Cash Flow
557.54M	305.53M	315.62M	194.25M	-22.91M
	Investing Cash Flow
-251.34M	20.56M	-146.00M	22.70M	-60.99M
	Financing Cash Flow
-328.68M	-170.73M	-204.95M	-159.20M	-2.58M

Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.85
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.22, below the 50-day MA of 4.98, and below the 200-day MA of 5.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ATH.

Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SU	77 Outperform	$58.32B	9.98	13.82%	5.08%	3.25%	-25.69%
ATH	77 Outperform	C$2.45B	5.58	28.01%	―	13.46%	―
BTE	75 Outperform	$1.80B	7.91	5.99%	4.44%	22.71%	―
MEG	73 Outperform	C$5.10B	10.50	11.22%	1.67%	-8.92%	-5.46%
TOU	71 Outperform	C$22.08B	16.66	8.55%	2.67%	-8.29%	-30.52%
CVE	67 Neutral	$29.07B	9.50	10.88%	4.90%	3.97%	-22.22%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.68B	4.29	-3.52%	6.80%	-0.14%	-64.60%

Athabasca Oil Corporate Events

Athabasca Oil Reports Record 2024 Results and Strong Shareholder Returns

Athabasca Oil Corporation reported its 2024 year-end results, highlighting record cash flow and significant reserves growth. The company achieved a 7% increase in annual production and a 102% per share growth in adjusted funds flow. Athabasca maintained a pristine balance sheet and continued its strategy of returning capital to shareholders, completing $317 million in share repurchases and planning to continue share buybacks in 2025.