Suncor Energy (SU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $57.48B
• Dividend Yield: 4.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 10.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 3.25%
• EPS Growth: -25.69%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 15,010
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 4.71
• Shares Outstanding: 1,237,135,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,195,693
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,034,051
• PEG Ratio: 13.47
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.23
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 3.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$59.84
• Price Target Upside: 28.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

Suncor Energy presents a strong investment case with robust financial performance, supported by solid revenue growth and cash flow management. The company has demonstrated strong operational achievements and strategic focus, as highlighted in the recent earnings call. Despite mixed technical indicators, the stock’s reasonable valuation and attractive dividend yield add to its appeal. The recent share buyback program further enhances shareholder value, positioning Suncor as a stable investment in the oil and gas sector.

Positive Factors

Operational Performance

Suncor notably outperformed over the past year, mainly on operating improvements under CEO Rich Krueger.

Production and Efficiency

In upstream, initiatives to debottleneck ops & enhance yields have resulted in record production & utilization rates.

Shareholder Returns

SU plans to return 100% of excess FCF to shareholders in FY25.

Negative Factors

Market Valuation

Few catalysts are expected, and Suncor no longer trades at a material EV/EBITDA discount to Canadian oil peers.

Tariff Impact

The impact of a Canada crude tariff would be -C$0.5B in the base case or 3-4% of EBITDA.

Tariff Risks

The possibility of US oil or refined product tariffs on Canada are a significant negative risk going forward.

Suncor Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Suncor Energy Inc. operates as an integrated energy company. The company primarily focuses on developing petroleum resource basins in Canada's Athabasca oil sands; explores, acquires, develops, produces, transports, refines, and markets crude oil in Canada and internationally; markets petroleum and petrochemical products under the Petro-Canada name primarily in Canada. It operates through Oil Sands; Exploration and Production; Refining and Marketing; and Corporate and Eliminations segments. The Oil Sands segment recovers bitumen from mining and in situ operations, and upgrades it into refinery feedstock and diesel fuel, or blends the bitumen with diluent for direct sale to market. The Exploration and Production segment is involved in offshore operations off the east coast of Canada and in the North Sea; and operating onshore assets in Libya and Syria. The Refining and Marketing segment refines crude oil and intermediate feedstock into various petroleum and petrochemical products; and markets refined petroleum products to retail, commercial, and industrial customers through its other retail sellers. The Corporate and Eliminations segment operates four wind farms in Ontario and Western Canada. The company also markets and trades in crude oil, natural gas, byproducts, refined products, and power. The company was formerly known as Suncor Inc. and changed its name to Suncor Energy Inc. in April 1997. Suncor Energy Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Suncor Energy generates revenue through a diverse range of activities within the oil and gas sector. The company earns money primarily through the extraction and production of crude oil and natural gas, particularly from its operations in Canada's oil sands. A significant portion of its revenue comes from refining crude oil into various petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are then sold to wholesalers, retailers, and directly to consumers. Additionally, Suncor operates a network of retail stations under the Petro-Canada brand, providing another revenue stream through fuel and convenience store sales. The company's earnings are also influenced by its strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which help optimize resource development and operational efficiencies. Suncor's financial performance is significantly affected by global oil prices, regulatory frameworks, and technological advancements in energy production and sustainability.

Suncor Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Suncor Energy has shown strong financial recovery with solid revenue growth and cash flow management post-2020. The income statement reflects improved revenue and gross margin, though the absence of EBIT in 2024 is a concern. The balance sheet is strong with improved leverage ratios, but declining ROE indicates potential efficiency issues. Overall, the financial health is robust, with strong cash flow supporting future investments and operations.

Income Statement

The company showed a strong recovery in revenue and profitability after the 2020 downturn. The gross profit margin for 2024 was approximately 40.8%, a notable improvement from 2020. However, the net profit margin dropped to 10.96% in 2024 from 16.9% in 2023. Revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 was 11.8%, indicating positive momentum, but the lack of EBIT in 2024 raises questions about operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio improved to 0.33 in 2024, reflecting a stronger equity base compared to liabilities. Return on equity was 13.52% in 2024, showing a decline from previous years, indicating reduced efficiency in generating profit from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio remained stable at 49.6%, suggesting a balanced capital structure.

Cash Flow

The company demonstrated strong cash flow generation capabilities with a free cash flow of $9.48 billion in 2024, a significant increase from 2023. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was 2.65, indicating robust cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio was 1.57, reflecting efficient capital expenditure management.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
54.88B	49.09B	58.34B	39.13B	24.66B
	Gross Profit
22.38B	19.54B	28.77B	19.49B	6.02B
	EBIT
0.00	8.68B	14.40B	6.70B	-5.26B
	EBITDA
15.84B	18.33B	22.28B	12.63B	2.55B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
6.02B	8.29B	9.08B	4.12B	-4.32B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.48B	1.73B	1.98B	2.21B	1.89B
	Total Assets
89.78B	88.54B	84.62B	83.74B	84.62B
	Total Debt
14.69B	15.80B	15.62B	18.35B	21.70B
	Net Debt
11.21B	14.08B	13.64B	16.15B	19.81B
	Total Liabilities
45.27B	45.26B	45.25B	47.13B	48.86B
	Stockholders Equity
44.51B	43.28B	39.37B	36.61B	35.76B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
9.48B	6.52B	10.56B	7.21B	-1.25B
	Operating Cash Flow
15.96B	12.34B	15.68B	11.76B	2.67B
	Investing Cash Flow
-6.47B	-6.51B	-4.79B	-3.98B	-4.52B
	Financing Cash Flow
-7.88B	-5.99B	-11.23B	-7.46B	1.79B

Suncor Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 46.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 46.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.44, below the 50-day MA of 52.88, and below the 200-day MA of 52.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:SU.

Suncor Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SU	77 Outperform	$57.48B	9.84	13.82%	4.79%	3.25%	-25.69%
TOU	71 Outperform	C$22.26B	16.80	8.55%	2.50%	-8.29%	-30.52%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$7.08B	3.69	-5.71%	6.15%	-1.38%	-53.90%

Suncor Energy Corporate Events

Suncor Energy Renews Share Buyback Program Amid Annual Disclosure Filing

Suncor Energy has filed its 2024 annual disclosure documents and announced the renewal of its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB), allowing the company to repurchase up to 10% of its public float. This move is seen as an attractive investment opportunity and aligns with the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value without impacting its long-term goals.

Suncor Energy to Announce Q4 2024 Financial Results

Suncor Energy announced it will release its fourth quarter financial results on February 5, 2025, followed by a webcast on February 6, 2025. The webcast will feature insights from top executives, offering stakeholders a chance to engage through a Q&A session. This announcement is part of Suncor’s ongoing commitment to transparency and may impact investor sentiment and market positioning.