Travelers Companies (TRV) Risk Factors

We face potential exposure to mass tort claims, including claims related to exposure to potentially harmful products or substances, such as perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), talc, opioids and lead. Establishing loss reserves for mass tort claims is subject to significant uncertainties because of many factors, including adverse changes to the tort environment that have continued to persist at elevated levels for a number of years (e.g., increased and more aggressive attorney involvement in insurance claims, increased litigation, expanded theories of liability, higher jury awards, lawsuit abuse and third-party litigation finance, among others); evolving judicial interpretations, including application of various theories of joint and several liabilities; disputes concerning medical causation with respect to certain diseases; geographical concentration of the lawsuits asserting the claims; and the potential for a large rise in the total number of claims without underlying epidemiological developments suggesting an increase in disease rates. Because of the uncertainties set forth above, additional liabilities may arise for amounts significantly in excess of the current loss reserves. In addition, our estimate of loss reserves may change. These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, could vary significantly from period to period and could materially and adversely affect our results of operations and/or our financial position.

Our underwriting profitability depends in large part on our ability to competitively price our products at a level that will adequately compensate us for the risks assumed. As a result, risk selection and pricing through the application of actuarially sound and segmented underwriting criteria is critical. However, laws or regulations, or judicial or administrative findings, could significantly curtail the use of particular types of underwriting criteria. For example, we may use credit scoring as a factor in pricing decisions where allowed by state law. Some consumer groups and/or regulators have alleged that the use of credit scoring violates the law by discriminating against persons belonging to a protected class and are calling for the prohibition or restrictions on the use of credit scoring in underwriting and pricing. A variety of other underwriting criteria and other data or methodologies used in personal and commercial insurance have been and continue to be criticized by regulators, government agencies, consumer groups or individuals on similar or other grounds, such as the impact of external data sources, artificial intelligence, algorithms and predictive models on protected classes of customers, and a number of states have begun rulemaking efforts in response or are considering doing so. Resulting legislative or regulatory actions or litigation could result in negative publicity and/or generate adverse rules or findings, such as curtailing the use of important underwriting criteria, or other data or methodologies, which could materially and adversely affect our results of operations.

Our property and casualty insurance operations expose us to claims arising out of catastrophes in each of the geographies where we write business and to varying peak catastrophe perils in different countries and regions. Catastrophes can be caused by various natural events, including, among others, hurricanes, tornadoes and other windstorms, earthquakes, hail, wildfires, severe winter weather, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, solar flares and other naturally-occurring events. Catastrophes can also be man-made, such as terrorist attacks and other intentionally destructive acts including those involving cyber events, nuclear, biological, chemical and radiological events, civil unrest, explosions and destruction of infrastructure. The incidence and severity of catastrophes are inherently unpredictable, and it is possible that both the frequency and severity of natural and man-made catastrophic events could increase. Severe weather events over the last two decades have underscored the unpredictability of climate trends. For example, the frequency and/or severity of hurricane, tornado, hail and wildfire events in the United States have been more volatile during this time period. The insurance industry has experienced increased catastrophe losses due to a number of potential factors, including, in addition to weather/climate variability, aging infrastructure, more people living in, and moving to, high-risk areas, population growth in areas with weaker enforcement of building codes, urban expansion, an increase in the number of amenities included in, and the average size of, a home and higher inflation, including as a result of post-event demand surge. We believe that changing climate conditions have also likely added to the frequency and severity of natural disasters and created additional uncertainty as to future trends and exposures. Climate studies by government agencies, academic institutions, catastrophe modeling organizations and other groups indicate that an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of hurricanes, heavy precipitation events and associated river, urban and flash flooding, sea level rise, droughts, heat waves and wildfires has occurred, and can be expected into the future. See "Item 7-Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-Catastrophe Modeling" and "-Changing Climate Conditions." All of the catastrophe modeling tools that we use or rely on to evaluate our catastrophe exposures are based on significant assumptions and judgments and are subject to error and mis-estimation. As a result, our estimated exposures could be materially different than our actual results. See "Item 7-Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-Catastrophe Modeling" and "-Changing Climate Conditions." In addition, for newer and rapidly evolving products, such as cyber insurance, the lack of historical loss experience increases the level of uncertainty related to the product, and as a result, the inherent potential for unexpected material economic loss. The extent of losses from a catastrophe is a function of the total amount of insured exposure affected by the event, the severity of the event and the coverage provided. For example, the specific location impacted by tornadoes is inherently random and unpredictable, and the specific location impacted by a tornado may or may not be highly populated and may or may not have a high concentration of our insured exposures. Similarly, the potential for losses from a cyber event can be magnified to the extent that the event impacts geographies, platforms, systems or vulnerabilities shared by a large number of policyholders, such as cloud-based software platforms. In addition, increases in the value and geographic concentration of insured property, the number of policyholders exposed to certain events and the effects of inflation could increase the severity of claims resulting from a catastrophe. For example, in recent periods, the effects of inflation, including as a result of post-event demand surge, have increased catastrophe losses, and this could continue in the future. Disruptions to electrical power supplies have also increased losses arising from natural events, a dynamic which may become more frequent as dependency on electricity increases and/or if the reliability of the electric grid decreases. States have from time to time passed legislation, and regulators have taken action, that have the effect of limiting the ability of insurers to manage catastrophe risk, such as by restricting insurers from reducing exposures or withdrawing from catastrophe-prone areas or mandating that insurers participate in residual markets. Residual markets have resulted in, and may in the future result in, significant losses or assessments to insurers, including us. In addition, legislative, regulatory and legal actions have sought to expand insurance coverage for catastrophe claims beyond the original intent of the policies, prevent the application of deductibles or limit other rights of insurers. We may not be able to adjust terms or adequately raise prices to offset the costs of catastrophes. See "Item 1-Business-U.S. State and Federal Regulation-Regulatory and Legislative Responses to Catastrophes." The estimation of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves related to catastrophe losses can be affected by, among other things, the nature of the information available at the time of estimation, coverage issues, and legal, regulatory and economic uncertainties. The estimates related to catastrophe losses are adjusted in subsequent periods as actual claims emerge and additional information becomes available, and these adjustments could be material. Exposure to catastrophe losses could adversely affect our financial strength and claims-paying ratings and could impair our ability to raise capital on acceptable terms or at all. Also, as a result of our exposure to catastrophe losses, rating agencies may further increase capital requirements, which may require us to raise capital to maintain our ratings. A ratings downgrade could hurt our ability to compete effectively or attract new business. In addition, catastrophic events could cause us to exhaust our available reinsurance limits and could adversely impact the cost and availability of reinsurance on a going-forward basis. Such events can also impact the credit of our reinsurers. For a discussion of our catastrophe reinsurance coverage, see "Item 1-Business-Reinsurance-Catastrophe Reinsurance." Catastrophic events could also adversely impact the credit of the issuers of securities held in our investment portfolio, such as states or municipalities. In addition, coverage in our reinsurance program for terrorism is limited. Although the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program provides benefits in the event of certain acts of terrorism, those benefits are subject to a deductible and other limitations, and the program is scheduled to expire on December 31, 2027. Under current provisions of this program, once our losses exceed 20% of our eligible direct commercial earned premiums for the preceding calendar year, the federal government will reimburse us for 80% of our losses attributable to certain acts of terrorism which exceed this deductible up to a total industry program cap of $100 billion. Our estimated deductible under the program is $3.48 billion for 2024. For a further description of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program, see note 6 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements. Because of the risks set forth above, catastrophes could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial position and/or liquidity. Further, we may not have sufficient resources to respond to claims arising from a high frequency of high-severity natural catastrophes and/or of man-made catastrophic events involving conventional means or claims arising out of one or more man-made catastrophic events involving "unconventional" means, such as nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological events.