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Target (TGT)
NYSE:TGT
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Target
(NYSE:TGT)
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$105.00
▲( 12.89% Upside)
Positive Factors
Earnings
An unexpected benefit from a material clawback on shrink is boosting earnings estimates and has led to an increase in the price target to $90 from $82.
Guidance
The market may view management keeping some form of guidance as a positive.
Negative Factors
Consumer Confidence
Target experienced declining consumer confidence, tariff uncertainty, and a boycott reaction to the company's DEI changes as key downside drivers.
Inventory Management
The company needs to rightsize a +11% increase in inventory levels, which includes incremental markdowns and receipt adjustment costs likely to pressure gross margin.
Market Share
Target's market share is being eroded by competitors like Walmart and Amazon, making its offering less relevant than it used to be.
Target (TGT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$44.58B
Dividend Yield4.54%
Average Volume (3M)7.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.8
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth-0.69%
EPS Growth2.03%
CountryUS
Employees440,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength69
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.30
Shares Outstanding454,359,680
10 Day Avg. Volume7,643,234
30 Day Avg. Volume7,235,628
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.76
Price to Book (P/B)3.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio9.79
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.32
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$105.46Price Target Upside13.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering33
Target Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTarget Corporation (TGT) is a leading American retail corporation headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The company operates a chain of large retail stores, offering a wide range of products, including apparel, home goods, electronics, groceries, and more. Target is known for its focus on providing a unique shopping experience with a blend of well-designed products at affordable prices. The company also offers various services such as same-day delivery, in-store pickup, and an expansive online shopping platform.
How the Company Makes MoneyTarget makes money primarily through the sale of products across its vast network of retail stores and online platforms. The key revenue streams include the sales of apparel and accessories, home furnishing and decor, electronics, food and beverages, and essentials like health and beauty products. Additionally, Target earns money through its private-label brands, which offer higher margins compared to national brands. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with designers and brands, enhancing its product offerings and driving customer traffic. Revenue is further supported by supplemental services such as Target's credit card program, which offers loyalty rewards and financing options to customers, generating additional income through interest and fees.
Target Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Same Store Sales Growth
Measures sales performance at existing locations, highlighting organic growth and customer loyalty without the influence of new store openings.
Measures sales performance at existing locations, highlighting organic growth and customer loyalty without the influence of new store openings.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataTarget Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Target's financials reveal a mixed picture with stable balance sheet indicators and strong cash flow generation, tempered by challenges in income statement performance due to missing revenue data and declining profitability. The company's reduction in debt is a positive sign for future financial health.Income Statement
The income statement shows a decline in EBIT and net income from the previous year, indicating a potential challenge in maintaining profitability. Revenue data for the latest period is missing, preventing a comprehensive analysis of revenue trends. Margins are moderately stable, with EBIT margin showing a slight decrease.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a stable equity position with a strong equity ratio of 25.39%. However, the debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly due to a substantial reduction in total debt, enhancing financial stability. Return on equity remains reasonably strong at 27.90%, indicating good profitability relative to equity.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates robust operating cash flow, with a notable free cash flow improvement. However, the absence of capital expenditure data limits a deeper understanding of cash flow dynamics. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high, suggesting strong cash generation relative to reported earnings.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 106.57B | 107.41B | 109.12B | 106.00B | 93.56B | Gross Profit |
| 30.06B | 29.68B | 26.89B | 31.04B | 27.38B | EBIT |
| 5.57B | 5.71B | 3.85B | 8.95B | 6.54B | EBITDA |
| 5.78B | 8.62B | 6.66B | 11.97B | 9.09B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 4.09B | 4.14B | 2.78B | 6.95B | 4.37B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 4.76B | 3.81B | 2.23B | 5.93B | 8.51B | Total Assets |
| 57.77B | 55.36B | 53.34B | 53.81B | 51.25B | Total Debt |
| 19.88B | 19.65B | 18.78B | 16.21B | 14.90B | Net Debt |
| 15.11B | 15.84B | 16.55B | 10.30B | 6.39B | Total Liabilities |
| 43.10B | 41.92B | 42.10B | 40.98B | 36.81B | Stockholders Equity |
| 14.67B | 13.43B | 11.23B | 12.83B | 14.44B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 4.48B | 3.81B | -1.51B | 5.08B | 7.88B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 7.37B | 8.62B | 4.02B | 8.63B | 10.53B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -2.86B | -4.76B | -5.50B | -3.15B | -2.59B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -3.55B | -2.29B | -2.20B | -8.07B | -2.00B |
Target Technical Analysis
Negative
93.01
Price Trends
97.48
Negative
113.31
Negative
127.73
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.29
Negative
42.78
Neutral
37.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TGT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 93.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 95.83, below the 50-day MA of 97.48, and below the 200-day MA of 127.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TGT.
Target Risk Analysis
Target disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Target reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Target Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $460.02B | 60.53 | 32.89% | 0.45% | 6.13% | 12.14% | |
75 Outperform | $15.72B | 29.37 | 32.33% | ― | 2.67% | 2.72% | |
73 Outperform | $782.49B | 41.91 | 22.80% | 0.88% | 4.22% | -0.17% | |
66 Neutral | $22.48B | 19.98 | 15.89% | 2.31% | 4.96% | -32.41% | |
64 Neutral | $8.88B | 14.67 | 4.78% | 173.89% | 3.39% | 2.18% | |
62 Neutral | $44.58B | 10.78 | 29.08% | 4.54% | -0.69% | 2.03% | |
61 Neutral | $19.04B | ― | 18.88% | ― | -9.88% | -205.57% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TGT
Target
93.01
-46.45
-33.31%
COST
Costco
1,025.30
232.02
29.25%
DG
Dollar General
100.78
-35.67
-26.14%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
88.92
-25.68
-22.41%
WMT
Walmart
96.43
32.25
50.25%
BJ
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings
117.50
34.30
41.23%
Target Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 21, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -5.21%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed performance with significant achievements in digital sales and inventory management offset by pressures from declining sales, consumer confidence, and discretionary categories. The company is focused on improving fundamentals, expanding its marketplace, and accelerating growth strategies.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Digital Sales Growth
Mid-single-digit growth in first-party digital business, led by 36% growth in same-day delivery powered by Target Circle 360.
Progress in Inventory Management
Meaningful progress on inventory shrink with rates moderating from extreme levels encountered in 2022 and 2023.
Successful Designer Collaboration
Strong sales results from the Kate Spade partnership, the most successful limited-time partnership in a decade.
Target Plus Marketplace Growth
Target Plus GMV grew by more than 20%, adding hundreds of new partners to the platform.
Increased Shipping Speed
Q1 average click to deliver speed was nearly 20% faster compared to last year.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Sales
Q1 net sales were down 2.8%, reflecting a decline in traffic as well as a lower average basket.
Decreased Consumer Confidence
Faced several headwinds including five consecutive months of declining consumer confidence.
Discretionary Category Pressure
Continued pressure in discretionary categories, influenced by high inflation and changing consumer spending patterns.
Increased Inventory Levels
Inventory was up 11% over last year, leading to some incremental markdowns and receipt adjustment costs.
Comprehensive EPS Decline
Adjusted EPS was $1.30 compared to $2.03 last year, highlighting a significant year-over-year decline.
Company Guidance
During the Target Corporation's first-quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, the company provided guidance suggesting a cautious outlook for the rest of the year amid challenging conditions. Target reported a 2.8% decline in net sales and a 3.8% drop in comparable sales, driven by a 2.4% decrease in traffic and a 1.4% lower average ticket. The gross margin rate fell by about 60 basis points to 28.2%, impacted by higher markdowns and digital fulfillment costs, partially offset by a 120 basis point benefit from lower inventory shrink. Target's adjusted EPS was $1.30, excluding a $0.97 benefit from litigation settlements, compared to $2.03 last year. Looking ahead, Target expects a low single-digit decline in sales for the full year, with adjusted EPS guidance set between $7 and $9 due to uncertainties like tariffs and consumer spending. The company highlighted several initiatives to bolster growth, including a focus on retail fundamentals, leveraging its multi-category portfolio, and enhancing digital capabilities. Target also announced the formation of an Enterprise Acceleration office to drive faster decision-making and operational improvements.Target Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Target Announces Departure of Two Key Executives
Neutral
May 21, 2025
On May 21, 2025, Target Corporation announced the upcoming departure of two key executives, Christina Hennington and Amy Tu. Christina Hennington, currently Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy and Growth Officer, will transition to a strategic advisor role until September 7, 2025, after which she will leave the company with severance benefits. Amy Tu, Executive Vice President and Chief Legal & Compliance Officer, will end her employment on June 1, 2025, also receiving severance benefits. These changes are part of transition agreements filed with Target’s quarterly report.
The most recent analyst rating on (TGT) stock is a Hold with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Target stock, see the TGT Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.