Simon Property (SPG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $55.68B
• Dividend Yield: 5.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: 5.40%
• EPS Growth: 8.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,600
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: REIT - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 7.55
• Shares Outstanding: 326,243,440
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,697,919
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,221,242
• PEG Ratio: 2.28
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.87
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 12.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $184.25
• Price Target Upside: 24.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

Simon Property Group's strong revenue growth and positive earnings call outlook are offset by high leverage, potential cash flow issues, and weaker technical indicators. While attractive dividends bolster value, the stock shows signs of being moderately overvalued.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

SPG's 4Q core results were strong with record leasing and demand for space at dominant retail centers.

Growth Initiatives

SPG's initiatives to invest in existing class B assets at outsized returns are viewed as an attractive growth lever.

Valuation

Shares of Simon Property Group are considered undervalued, leading to an analyst upgrading the stock to a Buy rating.

Negative Factors

Earnings Expectations

4Q FFO per share of ~$3.39, excluding one-time items, was below consensus estimates.

Sector Performance

Mall REITs, including Simon Property Group, have underperformed the broader market indices, reflecting challenges in the sector.

Stock Valuation

Analyst remains Neutral on SPG as its growth prospects are reflected in its current stock price, trading at a premium to its 5-year average.

Simon Property Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) is a leading real estate investment trust (REIT) and one of the largest owners and operators of shopping malls, premium outlets, and lifestyle centers globally. The company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, and specializes in the ownership, development, and management of retail real estate properties. Simon Property Group's extensive portfolio includes a diverse range of shopping destinations that cater to a wide demographic, providing retail, dining, and entertainment experiences.

How the Company Makes Money

Simon Property Group generates revenue primarily through the leasing of retail space in its properties. The company's key revenue streams include base rent from long-term lease agreements with retail tenants, percentage rent based on a portion of the tenant's sales, and common area maintenance charges. Additionally, SPG earns from ancillary services such as parking fees and advertising. The company maintains strategic partnerships with leading retailers and brands, which enhances its property value and tenant mix. Simon Property Group also benefits from its investment in joint ventures and international properties, further diversifying its income sources.

Simon Property Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Simon Property demonstrates strong revenue growth and operating performance, especially in gross margins. However, the substantial drop in net income in 2024 and high leverage pose potential risks. Cash flow analysis is limited due to missing data, but past performance shows resilience. The company should focus on improving profitability and managing debt levels to ensure financial stability.

Income Statement

Simon Property has shown a consistent revenue growth over the years, with an increase from $4.61 billion in 2020 to $5.96 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin is strong, indicating efficient management of costs. However, the net profit margin has significantly decreased in 2024 due to a drastic drop in net income, which could signal potential issues with expenses or one-time charges.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio, which suggests significant leverage and potential financial risk. The equity ratio is relatively low, indicating higher liabilities compared to equity. Despite these concerns, Simon Property maintains a stable asset base, although stockholders' equity has slightly declined over recent years.

Cash Flow

Simon Property's cash flow from operations has been strong historically, but the free cash flow in 2024 was not provided, preventing a complete analysis. The lack of operating cash flow data for 2024 raises concerns about cash management. Previous years showed solid free cash flow generation, but the lack of current year data is a red flag.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.96B	5.66B	5.29B	5.12B	4.61B
	Gross Profit
5.03B	4.73B	4.29B	4.15B	3.72B
	EBIT
3.09B	2.81B	2.58B	2.41B	1.97B
	EBITDA
4.36B	4.07B	4.59B	4.46B	3.41B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
7.26K	2.28B	2.14B	2.25B	1.11B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.40B	2.17B	621.63M	533.94M	1.01B
	Total Assets
32.41B	34.28B	33.01B	33.78B	34.79B
	Total Debt
24.78B	26.52B	25.46B	25.83B	27.24B
	Net Debt
23.38B	25.35B	24.84B	25.29B	26.23B
	Total Liabilities
28.81B	30.60B	29.19B	29.38B	31.13B
	Stockholders Equity
2.94B	3.02B	3.14B	3.36B	3.04B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
3.06B	3.14B	3.12B	3.11B	1.84B
	Operating Cash Flow
3.81B	3.93B	3.77B	3.64B	2.33B
	Investing Cash Flow
1.41B	-1.36B	-626.56M	-552.76M	-3.98B
	Financing Cash Flow
-4.99B	-2.02B	-3.05B	-3.56B	1.99B

Simon Property Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 148.20
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 148.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 159.42, below the 50-day MA of 169.84, and below the 200-day MA of 164.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SPG.

Simon Property Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REG	71 Outperform	$12.72B	32.97	5.82%	3.95%	10.15%	3.36%
BRX	70 Outperform	$7.59B	22.25	11.61%	4.46%	3.41%	10.54%
KIM	68 Neutral	$13.70B	36.50	4.03%	4.86%	14.51%	-45.53%
SPG	63 Neutral	$55.68B	19.57	80.78%	5.59%	5.40%	8.57%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$4.21B	15.62	-3.65%	12.27%	6.29%	-21.37%
MAC	54 Neutral	$3.76B	―	-7.50%	4.75%	4.88%	-66.88%
VNO	52 Neutral	$13.36B	831.59	1.32%	2.25%	-1.30%	-80.81%

Simon Property Corporate Events

Simon Property Reports Record Financial Performance in 2024

Simon Property Group reported record Funds From Operations of nearly $4.9 billion for the year 2024, attributing its success to strong leasing activity and strategic redevelopment projects. The company also demonstrated financial strength with increased net income and a significant liquidity position of approximately $10.1 billion, all while raising dividends, reflecting its robust market position and commitment to shareholder returns.