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South32 (SOUHY)
:SOUHY

South32 (SOUHY) AI Stock Analysis

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South32

(OTC:SOUHY)

54Neutral
South32's overall stock score reflects a mix of strong long-term strategic positioning and immediate operational challenges. The positive earnings call with increased revenues and debt reduction contrasts with weak current financial performance and technical indicators. Valuation concerns remain due to a high P/E ratio.

South32 (SOUHY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

South32 Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSouth32 Limited is a globally diversified mining and metals company headquartered in Perth, Australia. The company operates in the mining and production of commodities such as alumina, aluminum, coal, manganese, nickel, silver, lead, and zinc. South32's operations span across Australia, Southern Africa, and South America, making it a significant player in the mining sector with a focus on the extraction of essential raw materials.
How the Company Makes MoneySouth32 generates revenue primarily through the extraction, processing, and sale of minerals and metals. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of alumina, aluminum, and manganese ore. These commodities are critical for various industrial applications, including manufacturing, construction, and technology. South32 also produces metallurgical coal for steelmaking, and energy coal for electricity generation. The company benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with major industrial clients and commodity traders, which help stabilize its revenue. Additionally, South32's operations are strategically located to optimize access to global markets, further enhancing its ability to secure earnings from diverse geographical regions.

South32 Financial Statement Overview

Summary
South32 faces challenges in profitability and cash flow, with declining revenues and margins, despite a strong equity position. The income statement shows volatility, the balance sheet remains solid but with potential risks, and cash flows indicate liquidity concerns. Strategic adjustments are needed to improve profitability and cash stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
South32's income statement shows significant volatility in profitability. The gross profit margin saw fluctuations, with the most recent year showing a decrease in total revenue and gross profit. The net income has been negative for recent years, impacting the net profit margin negatively. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative for the most recent year, indicating operational challenges. Revenue growth has also been inconsistent, with a sharp decline in the latest period, reflecting potential market or operational difficulties.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet remains relatively strong with a healthy equity base and an improving debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the decline in total assets and stockholder's equity compared to previous years indicates some potential risks. The equity ratio remains favorable, demonstrating stability in assets financing.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow and operating cash flow, reflecting potential liquidity concerns. The free cash flow has turned negative in the latest year, impacting the company's ability to reinvest or pay dividends. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates inefficiencies in converting sales to cash, a potential risk for long-term operations.
Breakdown
Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
5.48B7.43B9.27B5.48B5.01B
Gross Profit
2.43B1.49B3.82B1.01B575.00M
EBIT
-735.00M1.25B3.47B681.00M226.00M
EBITDA
141.00M416.00M4.15B769.00M1.06B
Net Income Common Stockholders
-203.00M-173.00M2.67B-36.00M-65.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
842.00M1.26B2.37B1.61B1.31B
Total Assets
14.24B14.56B16.34B13.24B13.74B
Total Debt
1.57B1.74B1.83B1.21B1.02B
Net Debt
726.00M483.00M-538.00M-406.00M-298.00M
Total Liabilities
5.27B5.19B5.56B4.29B4.17B
Stockholders Equity
8.96B9.38B10.78B8.96B9.56B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-2.00M238.00M2.47B814.00M592.00M
Operating Cash Flow
1.12B1.19B3.07B1.41B1.36B
Investing Cash Flow
-1.11B-908.00M-2.10B-608.00M-873.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-417.00M-1.39B-215.00M-501.00M-562.00M

South32 Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price9.46
Price Trends
50DMA
10.93
Negative
100DMA
11.03
Negative
200DMA
11.04
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.18
Positive
RSI
30.45
Neutral
STOCH
0.71
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SOUHY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.92, below the 50-day MA of 10.93, and below the 200-day MA of 11.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 0.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SOUHY.

South32 Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (47)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
FCFCX
75
Outperform
$48.16B25.7210.92%1.79%10.71%1.94%
75
Outperform
$43.11B7.3716.72%7.68%-8.71%-22.75%
RIRIO
74
Outperform
$100.08B8.2120.93%6.84%-0.81%14.59%
BHBHP
72
Outperform
$118.50B10.3826.13%5.27%-3.15%54.08%
70
Outperform
$74.75B21.8540.71%2.27%15.54%39.64%
54
Neutral
$8.08B56.22-3.41%3.16%-20.31%
47
Neutral
$2.64B-3.21-21.68%3.30%4.19%-30.23%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SOUHY
South32
9.46
-0.84
-8.16%
BHP
BHP Group
42.07
-12.93
-23.51%
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
29.15
-19.69
-40.32%
RIO
Rio Tinto
54.67
-4.42
-7.48%
SCCO
Southern Copper
78.39
-26.65
-25.37%
VALE
Vale SA
9.08
-1.86
-17.00%

South32 Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 12, 2025 | % Change Since: -10.92% | Next Earnings Date: Aug 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call was positive, highlighting strong financial performance, production growth, and strategic project approvals. However, there are significant challenges in safety, geopolitical impacts, and cost management that need addressing.
Highlights
Significant Increase in EBITDA and Earnings
The company delivered a 44% increase in underlying EBITDA to $1 billion and an increase in underlying earnings of $375 million.
Reduction in Net Debt
Net debt was reduced by $715 million to $47 million, supporting a strong balance sheet focus.
Strong Production Performance
Aluminum production increased by 5% and copper equivalent production increased by 21% at Sierra Gorda.
Approval for Worsley Mine Development
Received primary state and federal environmental approvals for the Worsley mine development project, expected to sustain production to FY '36.
Interim Dividend and Capital Return
Announced a fully franked interim ordinary dividend of $154 million and continuation of capital management program with $171 million to be returned to shareholders.
Progress on Hermosa Zinc-Lead-Silver Project
Investing in future production of critical minerals with construction at the Hermosa project in Arizona and exploration at the Peake deposit.
Lowlights
Safety Incident at Cerro Matoso
A tragic incident resulted in the loss of a colleague, leading to an ongoing focus on safety improvement.
Challenges in Mozambique
Updated guidance for Mozal Aluminium due to impacts of civil unrest in Mozambique.
Weather Risks at GEMCO
Production restart at GEMCO subject to potential impacts from the wet season, with weather posing a significant risk.
Unit Cost Challenges
Higher bauxite consumption and additional administrative costs have increased unit costs by $5 per tonne.
Potential Sale of Cerro Matoso
The future of Cerro Matoso in the portfolio is uncertain, with discussions about potential divestment.
Company Guidance
In the recent call, the company provided detailed guidance for the first half of FY '25, highlighting significant metrics and strategic developments. Key production metrics included a 5% increase in aluminum production and a 21% rise in copper equivalent production at Sierra Gorda. However, production guidance for Mozal Aluminium was updated due to civil unrest impacts in Mozambique. Financially, the company reported a 44% increase in underlying EBITDA to $1 billion and a $375 million rise in underlying earnings, along with a $361 million improvement in cash flow from operations. The company also reduced net debt by $715 million to $47 million, emphasizing a strong balance sheet. A fully franked interim dividend of $154 million at $0.034 per share was announced, alongside the continuation of a capital management program with $171 million remaining for shareholder returns. The sale of Illawarra Metallurgical Coal for up to $1.65 billion further streamlined the portfolio, with investments in future critical minerals production, including the development of the Tailor zinc-lead-silver project at Hermosa. The company's ongoing focus on reducing unit costs and unwinding working capital is expected to enhance cash generation in the second half of FY '25.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.