Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
NASDAQ:SMCI
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Super Micro Computer
(NASDAQ:SMCI)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(15.55% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/13/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash generation (deeply negative operating/free cash flow) and increased balance-sheet risk, despite strong revenue growth. Mixed earnings-call takeaway and soft technicals further temper the outlook, while a moderate P/E provides some valuation support.
Positive Factors
AI-driven Revenue Growth
The company’s revenue is concentrated in AI GPU platforms, which drove 123% YoY growth and accounted for over 80% of Q3 sales. This reflects durable exposure to structurally expanding AI/data‑center demand and scale advantages in high‑density server builds that should sustain multi‑quarter order flow.
Negative Factors
Severely Negative Operating Cash Flow
Persistent large negative operating and free cash flow reverses prior conversion strength and implies heavy working‑capital or inventory funding needs. This elevates financing dependence, increases execution risk for growth plans, and makes durable investment and payout policies contingent on external capital access.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
AI-driven Revenue Growth
The company’s revenue is concentrated in AI GPU platforms, which drove 123% YoY growth and accounted for over 80% of Q3 sales. This reflects durable exposure to structurally expanding AI/data‑center demand and scale advantages in high‑density server builds that should sustain multi‑quarter order flow.
Read all positive factors
Super Micro Computer Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales across regions (such as North America, Asia, and EMEA), highlighting where Super Micro Computer earns its revenue and where demand is strongest. Regional concentration can create exposure to trade tensions, regulatory changes, or local macro weakness, while diverse geographic sales support steadier growth.
Breaks down sales across regions (such as North America, Asia, and EMEA), highlighting where Super Micro Computer earns its revenue and where demand is strongest. Regional concentration can create exposure to trade tensions, regulatory changes, or local macro weakness, while diverse geographic sales support steadier growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySuper Micro Computer (SMCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.32B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)58.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.6
Beta (1Y)3.24
Revenue Growth56.58%
EPS Growth1.94%
CountryUS
Employees5,684
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryComputer Hardware
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.09
Shares Outstanding601,418,460
10 Day Avg. Volume84,428,254
30 Day Avg. Volume58,513,366
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)4.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.32
P/FCF Ratio18.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.55Price Target Upside24.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)2.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$39.68B
Super Micro Computer Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Super Micro Computer, Inc., established in 1993 and headquartered in San Jose, California, is a global leader specializing in the design and production of high-performance server and data storage solutions. These sophisticated offerings, founded o...
How the Company Makes Money
Supermicro makes money primarily by selling server and storage hardware systems and related subsystems to enterprise, cloud/data center, and channel customers. Its revenue model is centered on (1) complete systems sales (e.g., rack servers, GPU/AI...
Super Micro Computer Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: operational execution and market positioning are strong (robust YoY revenue growth, meaningful gross margin recovery, accelerating software revenue, DCBBS momentum, and expanded global capacity), but material near‑term financial and execution risks persist (large QoQ revenue shortfall due to customer readiness, severe working capital strain and negative operating cash flow, a sharp increase in net debt, elevated inventory and an ongoing external investigation). The company is profitable and growing but faces meaningful liquidity, working capital and reputational headwinds that temper the positive operational developments.Positive Updates
Strong Year‑over‑Year Revenue Growth
Q3 revenue of $10.2B, up 123% year‑over‑year, driven primarily by AI GPU‑related platforms contributing over 80% of revenue.
Negative Updates
Quarter‑over‑Quarter Revenue Decline and Customer Delivery Delay
Q3 revenue declined 19% quarter‑over‑quarter; management attributed the shortfall to customer site readiness delays (power/networking) and supply constraints, with a material portion of revenue deferred into later quarters.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Year‑over‑Year Revenue Growth
Q3 revenue of $10.2B, up 123% year‑over‑year, driven primarily by AI GPU‑related platforms contributing over 80% of revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q4 FY2026 the company guided net sales of $11.0–$12.5 billion (the CEO also referenced a $12.0B target), GAAP diluted EPS of $0.53–$0.67 and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $0.65–$0.79, with expected gross margins of 8.2%–8.4%; GAAP operating expenses of ~ $433 million (including ≈$114 million of stock‑based compensation excluded from non‑GAAP), an expected net other income/expense of ≈$36 million, a GAAP tax rate of 19.4% (non‑GAAP 20.4%), fully diluted share counts of ~695M (GAAP) and ~712M (non‑GAAP), and Q4 CapEx of $30–$50 million; for the full fiscal year management projects net sales of $38.9–$40.4 billion (the CEO reiterated a ~ $40B FY target).Super Micro Computer Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 33.70B | 21.97B | 14.99B | 7.12B | 5.20B | 5.20B |
| Gross Profit | 2.83B | 2.43B | 2.06B | 1.28B | 800.00M | 800.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.76B | 1.33B | 1.27B | 799.69M | 375.72M | 375.72M |
| Net Income | 1.25B | 1.05B | 1.15B | 640.00M | 285.16M | 285.16M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 23.45B | 14.02B | 9.83B | 3.67B | 3.21B | 2.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.29B | 5.17B | 1.67B | 440.46M | 267.40M | 232.27M |
| Total Debt | 6.75B | 4.78B | 2.18B | 290.30M | 620.56M | 119.05M |
| Total Liabilities | 15.88B | 7.72B | 4.41B | 1.70B | 1.78B | 1.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.58B | 6.30B | 5.42B | 1.97B | 1.43B | 1.10B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -6.85B | 1.53B | -2.61B | 626.79M | -485.98M | 64.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -6.69B | 1.66B | -2.49B | 663.58M | -440.80M | 122.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -254.45M | -183.21M | -194.25M | -39.49M | -46.28M | -58.02M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.76B | 2.02B | 3.91B | -448.29M | 522.87M | -44.44M |
Super Micro Computer Technical Analysis
Negative
28.56
Price Trends
32.26
Negative
31.04
Negative
35.81
Negative
Market Momentum
0.86
Positive
41.11
Neutral
7.81
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMCI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.35, below the 50-day MA of 32.26, and below the 200-day MA of 35.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMCI.
Super Micro Computer Risk Analysis
Super Micro Computer disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Super Micro Computer reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Super Micro Computer Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $205.55B | 55.18 | 30.58% | ― | 30.57% | 22.96% | |
75 Outperform | $31.66B | 24.95 | 114.18% | 1.89% | 5.29% | 10.66% | |
72 Outperform | $477.31B | 40.04 | 25.14% | 2.09% | 9.21% | 25.97% | |
71 Outperform | $256.37B | 30.53 | -363.24% | 1.45% | 38.87% | 99.71% | |
66 Neutral | $63.79B | 42.36 | -0.64% | 2.17% | 23.33% | 2.87% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
54 Neutral | $18.32B | 14.60 | 18.21% | ― | 56.58% | 1.94% |
* Technology Sector Average
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
30.46
-13.23
-30.28%
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Super Micro Computer Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Super Micro Computer Launches Major Equity Financing Initiative
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
On June 10–11, 2026, Super Micro Computer, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement and a distribution agreement enabling significant equity issuance to support its rapid AI expansion. The company agreed to sell 45,454,545 common shares, ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Super Micro Highlights Related-Party Risks and Reputational Pressures
Negative
Jun 9, 2026
Super Micro Computer has updated its risk disclosures to highlight significant related-party exposures involving Ablecom and Compuware, which provide key design, manufacturing and distribution services and are controlled by family members of Chief...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Super Micro Stockholders Expand Equity Plan, Back Leadership
Positive
Apr 20, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on April 15, 2026, Super Micro Computer’s investors approved a further amendment and restatement of the 2020 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan, lifting total shares available for awards to 118,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.