Vivid Seats (SEAT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $566.18M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.11M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 39.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.13
• Revenue Growth: 8.80%
• EPS Growth: -91.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 768
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 82
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): 0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 132,697,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,924,725
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,114,565
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.91
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 3.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $4.54
• Price Target Upside: 67.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

Vivid Seats has shown strong revenue growth and improved equity, but challenges such as declining profit margins, cash flow issues, and competitive pressures are concerning. Technically, the stock is in a bearish trend, and valuation metrics suggest it may be overvalued. While long-term growth prospects are supported by strategic initiatives, short-term performance risks remain high. The overall score reflects a cautious outlook with moderate potential for recovery if short-term challenges are addressed.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Fourth quarter results showed better-than-expected sales and adjusted EBITDA, outperforming both consensus and internal estimates.

Financial Position

The company ended the fourth quarter with an increased cash position, indicating a strong financial footing to support operations and growth.

Market Strategy

Vivid Seats has launched in its first European market, the UK, with plans to expand into additional European markets.

Negative Factors

Guidance and Expectations

The guidance for full-year 2025 sales and adjusted EBITDA was below expectations, which led to a significant drop in share price.

Market Competition

Persistent competition is impacting growth and market share, leading to increased marketing expenses and reduced profitability.

Regulatory Environment

The Executive Order targets 'unfair' ticketing practices, which may impact Vivid Seats by enforcing new regulations around pricing transparency and competition laws.

Vivid Seats Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vivid Seats Inc. operates as an online secondary marketplace for tickets in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Marketplace and Resale. The Marketplace segment acts as an intermediary between event ticket buyers and sellers; processes ticket sales on its website and mobile applications through its distribution partners; and sells tickets for live sports, concerts, and theater shows, and other live events. This segment offers Skybox, a proprietary enterprise resource planning tool that helps ticket sellers manage ticket inventories, adjust pricing, and fulfill orders across multiple ticket resale marketplaces. The Resale segment acquires tickets to resell on secondary ticket marketplaces; and provides internal research and development support for Skybox and to deliver seller software and tools. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Vivid Seats generates revenue primarily through service fees charged on ticket sales conducted via its platform. These fees are collected from both buyers and sellers, with the percentage varying based on the event and ticket type. The company also benefits from partnerships with event organizers, promoters, and venues, which can provide exclusive ticket access or promotional opportunities. Additionally, Vivid Seats may earn revenue from advertising and marketing services offered to event organizers looking to boost ticket sales through targeted campaigns on the platform.

Vivid Seats Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vivid Seats demonstrates strong revenue growth and a recovery in equity, highlighting resilience and a positive trajectory. However, the decline in profit margins and cash flow generation indicates potential challenges in cost management and liquidity. The balance sheet shows improved financial stability, but past negative equity and leverage remain areas to monitor. Overall, while the company shows promising growth, there are concerns regarding profitability and cash flow sustainability.

Income Statement

Vivid Seats has shown strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $712.9 million in 2023 to $775.6 million in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 8.8%. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 73.98% in 2024, slightly lower than the previous year. However, the net profit margin has declined significantly from 10.45% in 2023 to just 1.21% in 2024, suggesting rising costs or other profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company has improved its equity position, with stockholders' equity rising to $261.1 million in 2024, a significant recovery from negative equity in previous years. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved due to reduced debt levels and increased equity, but it still indicates moderate leverage. The equity ratio has improved to 15.96%, showing a stronger asset base supported by equity. However, the company had a history of negative equity, which may still pose a risk.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has decreased significantly from $147.3 million in 2023 to $53.9 million in 2024, which could impact liquidity if the trend continues. Free cash flow growth is negative compared to the previous year, dropping to $49.7 million in 2024 from $134.5 million in 2023. The company maintains a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating operational cash generation exceeding net income.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
775.59M	712.88M	600.27M	443.04M	35.08M
	Gross Profit
573.73M	530.70M	459.77M	352.42M	10.39M
	EBIT
42.23M	81.34M	78.11M	76.57M	-142.18M
	EBITDA
91.83M	102.44M	91.95M	41.68M	-668.46M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
9.43M	74.54M	70.78M	-19.13M	-831.67M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
243.48M	125.48M	251.54M	489.53M	285.34M
	Total Assets
1.64B	1.55B	1.15B	1.41B	1.16B
	Total Debt
22.68M	284.78M	282.56M	460.13M	877.32M
	Net Debt
-220.80M	159.30M	31.02M	-29.40M	591.98M
	Total Liabilities
1.02B	963.34M	671.27M	983.46M	1.43B
	Stockholders Equity
261.11M	105.02M	-382.70M	-860.68M	-271.78M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
49.70M	134.54M	-1.03M	210.28M	-41.50M
	Operating Cash Flow
53.92M	147.32M	14.38M	219.93M	-33.89M
	Investing Cash Flow
-26.74M	-225.64M	-15.41M	-9.35M	-7.61M
	Financing Cash Flow
86.08M	-43.43M	-236.48M	-6.11M	245.54M

Vivid Seats Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.71
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SEAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.70, below the 50-day MA of 3.29, and below the 200-day MA of 3.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SEAT.

Vivid Seats Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YELP	74 Outperform	$2.30B	18.52	17.79%	―	5.61%	37.61%
OPRA	74 Outperform	$1.37B	16.90	8.64%	5.07%	20.42%	-36.54%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$13.73B	6.72	-2.47%	3.83%	2.30%	-35.22%
TTGT	57 Neutral	$561.63M	―	-5.28%	―	-7.89%	-192.35%
SEAT	54 Neutral	$566.18M	39.45	5.15%	―	8.80%	-91.33%
GRPN	52 Neutral	$791.84M	35.54	-9999.00%	―	-4.34%	20.50%
KIND	46 Neutral	$579.45M	―	-19.38%	―	13.27%	34.93%