SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $454.96M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.36M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.72
• Revenue Growth: -52.30%
• EPS Growth: 27.13%
• Country: US
• Employees: 353
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 69
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.56
• Shares Outstanding: 61,480,946
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,593,367
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,364,464
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 12.07
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -1.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $8.42
• Price Target Upside: 8.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

SAGE Therapeutics' overall stock score is primarily affected by its weak financial performance, marked by ongoing losses and negative cash flows, despite a promising product launch. Technical indicators show mixed signals, while valuation remains a concern due to a negative P/E ratio. The positive sentiment from the earnings call, driven by ZURZUVAE's adoption, provides some optimism, yet financial challenges significantly weigh down the score.

Positive Factors

Insurance Coverage

Coverage for Zurzuvae continues to improve, with over 95% of commercial and Medicaid lives covered or having a path to coverage.

Product Demand

The company reported 2,500 scripts were shipped and delivered in 4Q, indicating strong underlying demand.

Strategic Initiatives

Biogen and Sage remain committed to the product and have expanded their sales force teams, planning to increase targeted marketing efforts with DTC and social media campaigns to increase disease awareness and drive growth for Zurzuvae.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

The earnings per share estimate for the first quarter of 2025 has been lowered from -$0.76 to -$0.99, indicating a less favorable financial performance.

Leadership Changes

The recent departure of Chief Medical Officer Dr. Laura Gault adds further uncertainty to early-stage asset development, potentially impacting R&D and execution.

Product Revenue

Collaboration revenue for the product Zurzuvae has been slightly adjusted downwards based on prescription trends.

SAGE Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sage Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes medicines to treat central nervous system disorders. Its lead product candidate is ZULRESSO, an intravenous formulation of brexanolone for the treatment of postpartum depression (PPD) in adults. The company's product pipeline also includes zuranolone, a neuroactive steroid, which is in Phase III clinical trials for treating PPD, major depressive disorders, treatment resistant disorders, generalized anxiety disorders, and bipolar depression; and SAGE-324, a compound that is in Phase II clinical trial to treat essential tremors, as well as has completed Phase I clinical trial for epilepsy and Parkinson's diseases. In addition, its product pipeline comprises SAGE-718, an oxysterol-based positive allosteric modulator of the NMDA receptor, which has completed Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of depression, Huntington's disease, Alzheimer's disease, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, schizophrenia, and neuropathic pain. Sage Therapeutics, Inc. has a strategic collaboration with Shionogi & Co., Ltd. for the development and commercialization of zuranolone in Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea; and a collaboration and license agreement with Biogen MA Inc. to jointly develop and commercialize SAGE-217 and SAGE-324 products. The company was formerly known as Sterogen Biopharma, Inc. and changed its name to Sage Therapeutics, Inc. in September 2011. Sage Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

SAGE Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the sales of its commercial products, particularly ZULRESSO, which is approved by the FDA for the treatment of postpartum depression. The company's revenue streams also include potential milestone payments, licensing fees, and royalties from strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, SAGE Therapeutics invests in research and development to expand its pipeline of candidates, which may lead to future revenue opportunities through new product launches or expanded indications for existing therapies.

SAGE Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

SAGE Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges with declining revenue, ongoing losses, and negative cash flows. Although the company maintains low leverage, its ability to generate profits and cash remains a concern, impacting its overall financial health.

Income Statement

SAGE Therapeutics shows a significant decline in revenue, with a notable decrease from previous years. The company's net and gross profit margins are negative, indicating ongoing losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting limited leverage, which is positive. However, the return on equity is negative due to ongoing losses, and there's a declining equity ratio, indicating reduced shareholder equity stability.

Cash Flow

SAGE Therapeutics has negative free cash flow and operating cash flow, reflecting substantial cash outflows. The ratios of cash flow to net income indicate inefficiencies in converting income to cash, underscoring cash management issues.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
41.24M	86.45M	7.69M	6.31M	1.11B
	Gross Profit
31.80M	84.30M	6.87M	5.75M	1.11B
	EBIT
-432.37M	-579.85M	-546.99M	-460.91M	596.23M
	EBITDA
-409.49M	-545.07M	-545.87M	-456.73M	626.60M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-400.67M	-541.49M	-503.27M	-450.83M	606.07M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
504.42M	753.18M	1.27B	1.74B	2.10B
	Total Assets
547.22M	882.28M	1.36B	1.83B	2.16B
	Total Debt
11.84M	5.17M	12.13M	18.43M	28.10M
	Net Debt
-69.19M	-65.83M	-150.57M	-275.80M	-1.63B
	Total Liabilities
82.13M	82.75M	103.85M	96.26M	86.91M
	Stockholders Equity
465.09M	799.53M	1.25B	1.73B	2.07B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-267.19M	-541.14M	-460.97M	-378.55M	663.93M
	Operating Cash Flow
-267.19M	-540.59M	-460.04M	-378.18M	664.28M
	Investing Cash Flow
266.68M	442.91M	325.43M	-1.00B	442.68M
	Financing Cash Flow
10.66M	6.03M	3.07M	13.33M	426.76M

SAGE Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.79
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAGE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.41, above the 50-day MA of 7.54, and above the 200-day MA of 7.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SAGE.

SAGE Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$5.32B	3.39	-40.26%	2.89%	17.93%	2.48%
AKBA	49 Neutral	$621.73M	―	91.25%	―	-17.75%	-19.17%
CAPR	49 Neutral	$595.17M	―	-48.16%	―	-11.55%	-37.48%
BCYC	46 Neutral	$581.50M	―	-29.06%	―	30.27%	44.12%
SAGE	42 Neutral	$454.96M	―	-63.37%	―	-52.30%	27.13%
CGEM	42 Neutral	$476.29M	―	-32.06%	―	―	15.34%
OPT	39 Underperform	$473.48M	―		―	-25.10%	-7.06%

SAGE Therapeutics Corporate Events

SAGE Therapeutics Announces CMO Resignation and Interim Appointment

On March 3, 2025, Sage Therapeutics announced the resignation of its Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Laura Gault, effective March 21, 2025, as she pursues a new opportunity. The company has appointed its current Chief Scientific Officer, Dr. Mike Quirk, to take over key responsibilities on an interim basis, ensuring continuity in strategic guidance for its clinical development programs.