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Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)
NASDAQ:AKBA
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Akebia Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:AKBA)
49Neutral
Positive Factors
Market Expansion
The company is expanding into the non-dialysis-dependent CKD market, which is seen as having significant unmet needs and a large total addressable market.
Market Penetration
Vafseo launched with nearly 100% contract coverage as the only HIF stabilizer, only oral Tx option, and only non-ESA Tx option available in the US to treat CKD anemia.
Regulatory Approval
The EMA's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use issued a positive opinion recommending that the European Commission approve XOANACYL for treating adult CKD patients.
Negative Factors
Commercial Opportunity
Risks to the investment thesis and target price include a smaller than anticipated commercial opportunity due to market size, competition, and/or pricing for Vafseo.
Regulatory Challenges
Additional regulatory requirements could represent significant timeline delays.
Sales Decline
Sales for Auryxia are likely to decline with the loss of exclusivity in the future.
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$431.03M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.59M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth-17.75%
EPS Growth-19.17%
CountryUS
Employees181
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength70
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.33
Shares Outstanding261,231,050
10 Day Avg. Volume4,908,594
30 Day Avg. Volume5,594,652
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)3.14
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-28.20
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.38Price Target Upside347.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
Akebia Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAkebia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney diseases. The company's lead product investigational product candidate is vadadustat, an oral therapy, which is in Phase III development for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis dependent adult patients. It also offers Auryxia, a ferric citrate that is used to control the serum phosphorus levels in adult patients with DD-CKD on dialysis; and the treatment of iron deficiency anemia in adult patients with CKD not on dialysis. Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. has collaboration agreements with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. for the development and commercialization of vadadustat in the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, Australia, Canada, the Middle East, and other countries; and Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation for the development and commercialization of vadadustat in Japan and other Asian countries, as well as research and license agreement with Janssen Pharmaceutica NV for the development and commercialization of hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase targeted compounds worldwide. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyAkebia Therapeutics makes money through the development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products for kidney-related conditions. The company's revenue model is primarily based on product sales, licensing agreements, and collaboration partnerships. Akebia generates revenue from sales of its approved therapies and through strategic partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies, which may include milestone payments and royalties. These partnerships help in the co-development, marketing, and distribution of its products, significantly contributing to its revenue streams. The company's financial performance is influenced by the regulatory approval of its products, market demand, and the competitive landscape in the biopharmaceutical industry.
Akebia Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Akebia Therapeutics is facing financial challenges across all aspects of its financial statements. Revenue and profitability are declining, leverage is high, and cash flow is negative, posing risks to financial stability. The company needs to address these issues to improve its financial health.Income Statement
Akebia Therapeutics shows a declining revenue trend with a significant reduction from previous years. Gross Profit Margin has improved, but the company remains unprofitable with negative Net Profit Margin and EBIT Margin. Overall, the income statement highlights ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals high leverage with negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, and the company has been unable to maintain a positive Return on Equity. Equity Ratio is negative, suggesting more liabilities than assets.35
Negative
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains negative, reflecting ongoing operational cash burn. Free Cash Flow is also negative, although there is some improvement in reducing cash outflows. However, the company's ability to generate cash remains a concern, affecting overall financial health.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 160.18M | 194.62M | 292.60M | 213.58M | 295.31M | Gross Profit |
| 97.00M | 120.47M | 207.81M | 60.18M | -601.00K | EBIT |
| -50.47M | -46.26M | -63.18M | -265.32M | -376.44M | EBITDA |
| -13.72M | -6.87M | -43.26M | -225.96M | -341.00M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -69.41M | -51.92M | -106.01M | -244.87M | -349.87M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 51.87M | 42.92M | 90.47M | 149.80M | 268.69M | Total Assets |
| 220.67M | 241.70M | 351.83M | 525.55M | 644.14M | Total Debt |
| 3.55M | 104.18M | 99.78M | 136.05M | 126.28M | Net Debt |
| -48.32M | 61.26M | 9.32M | -13.75M | -102.41M | Total Liabilities |
| 269.86M | 272.29M | 342.49M | 449.09M | 396.52M | Stockholders Equity |
| -49.19M | -30.58M | 9.34M | 76.46M | 247.62M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -40.69M | -23.38M | -73.27M | -253.02M | -110.70M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -40.66M | -23.38M | -73.15M | -252.97M | -110.39M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -33.00K | 0.00 | -114.00K | 39.94M | -40.00M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 49.66M | -25.21M | 14.60M | 133.73M | 231.72M |
Akebia Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Negative
1.65
Price Trends
1.98
Negative
1.98
Negative
1.69
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Positive
45.96
Neutral
8.94
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKBA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.97, below the 50-day MA of 1.98, and below the 200-day MA of 1.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AKBA.
Akebia Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Akebia Therapeutics disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Akebia Therapeutics reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Akebia Therapeutics Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (48)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
49 Neutral | $431.03M | ― | 91.25% | ― | -17.75% | -19.17% | |
48 Neutral | $6.35B | 1.18 | -46.25% | 2.67% | 19.35% | 1.28% | |
48 Neutral | $440.20M | ― | -63.37% | ― | -52.30% | 27.13% | |
46 Neutral | $410.24M | ― | -44.15% | ― | -60.83% | 14.13% | |
41 Neutral | $415.55M | ― | -29.04% | ― | 12.12% | -19.00% | |
40 Underperform | $464.54M | ― | ― | -25.10% | -7.06% | ||
35 Underperform | $485.00M | ― | -99.54% | ― | ― | -2.53% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AKBA
Akebia Therapeutics
1.65
0.26
18.71%
TBPH
Theravance Biopharma
8.40
-1.52
-15.32%
SAGE
SAGE Therapeutics
7.16
-8.16
-53.26%
COGT
Cogent Biosciences
4.26
-2.24
-34.46%
RLAY
Relay Therapeutics
2.42
-4.41
-64.57%
OPT
Opthea Limited Sponsored ADR
3.20
-0.36
-10.11%
Akebia Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 13, 2025 | % Change Since: -14.51% | Next Earnings Date: May 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights a strong initial launch of Vafseo with higher-than-expected revenue and broad market access. There is positive momentum in Medicare Advantage uptake and a solid financial position with sufficient cash runway. However, challenges include decreased Auryxia revenue, specialty pharmacy fulfillment issues, and increased net loss. Overall, the sentiment remains cautiously optimistic due to the strong Vafseo launch and regulatory progress.Highlights
Strong Launch of Vafseo
In the first quarter of 2025, Akebia expects $10 million to $11 million in net product revenue from Vafseo, exceeding analyst estimates. Over 500 physicians have prescribed Vafseo, with an average of eight prescriptions each.
Extensive Market Access Achieved
Commercial supply contracts are in place with dialysis providers covering nearly 100% of U.S. dialysis patients. There's significant early physician and dialysis organization engagement.
Positive Uptake in Medicare Advantage
15% of Vafseo prescriptions are covered under Medicare Advantage plans, indicating successful contracting by dialysis organizations.
Financial Stability and Cash Position
Cash and cash equivalents were $51.9 million at year-end 2024, with additional $18.4 million raised post year-end. This, along with operational cash flow, is expected to fund operations for at least two years.
Encouraging Regulatory Engagement for VALOR Study
FDA shows willingness to discuss the protocol for the VALOR Phase 3 trial, which could lead to potential approval for non-dialysis patients.
Lowlights
Decreased Revenue from Auryxia
Auryxia net product revenues decreased from $53.2 million in Q4 2023 to $44.4 million in Q4 2024, primarily due to reduced volume.
Backlog in Specialty Pharmacy Fulfillment
There was a significant backlog in fulfilling prescriptions through specialty pharmacies, impacting patient access in early 2025.
Net Loss Increases
Net loss was $22.8 million in Q4 2024 compared to net income of $0.6 million in Q4 2023. Annual net loss increased to $69.4 million in 2024 from $51.9 million in 2023.
Company Guidance
During Akebia's Fourth Quarter 2024 Financial Results Call, the company provided guidance for the initial launch of Vafseo, its HIF-PH inhibitor for anemia due to chronic kidney disease. In the first seven weeks of prescribing, Akebia reported expected net product revenue between $10 million and $11 million for the first quarter of 2025, ahead of analyst estimates. The launch strategy includes securing commercial supply contracts with dialysis providers covering nearly 100% of U.S. dialysis patients, achieving broad access, and driving prescriber demand. Over 500 physicians prescribed Vafseo, averaging about eight prescriptions each, with the company emphasizing the importance of gaining both breadth and depth in prescribing. Additionally, a significant portion of early prescriptions, over 15%, were covered by payers other than Medicare fee-for-service, indicating early success in Medicare Advantage plan coverage. Akebia also plans to initiate the VALOR study for non-dialysis patients in the second half of 2025, following a meeting with the FDA to discuss the study protocol. The company remains focused on making Vafseo the standard-of-care and is optimistic about its financial outlook, with cash and cash equivalents of $51.9 million as of December 31, 2024.Akebia Therapeutics Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
Akebia Therapeutics Announces Public Offering Pricing
Neutral
Mar 20, 2025
On March 19, 2025, Akebia Therapeutics announced the pricing of its public offering of 25 million shares of common stock at $2.00 per share, aiming to raise approximately $50 million before expenses. The offering, managed by Leerink Partners and Piper Sandler, is expected to close on March 21, 2025, and includes an option for underwriters to purchase an additional 3.75 million shares. Akebia anticipates net proceeds of $46.5 million, which could increase to $53.6 million if the additional shares are fully purchased, supporting its goal of achieving profitability.
Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Akebia Therapeutics Expands Vafseo Market at Healthcare Conference
Positive
Jan 13, 2025
Akebia Therapeutics announced its participation in the 43rd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, where it plans to present its strategy and business outlook, including the recent U.S. launch of Vafseo for anemia in dialysis patients. The company has secured contracts covering nearly 100% of U.S. dialysis patients and aims to expand Vafseo’s label to include late-stage non-dialysis CKD patients, targeting a billion-dollar market opportunity. Akebia expects its current cash resources to support operations for at least two years, despite uncertainties about future funding.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.