Redwire (RDW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $567.56M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.13M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.08
• Revenue Growth: 24.73%
• EPS Growth: -219.97%
• Country: US
• Employees: 750
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -2.34
• Shares Outstanding: 75,573,296
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,965,586
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,125,951
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.91
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -12.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $25.00
• Price Target Upside: 232.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

Redwire's overall score reflects strong revenue growth and strategic initiatives, but is significantly hampered by ongoing financial instability, high leverage, and negative equity. Technical indicators suggest potential downward momentum, and valuation metrics highlight the company's current unprofitability. While earnings call insights suggest a positive long-term outlook, immediate financial challenges remain a critical concern.

Positive Factors

Contract Wins

The awarded $45.5M contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory is seen as evidence of Redwire's effective strategy execution and potential for future business growth.

Revenue Guidance

The company is guiding full year 2025 revenue, including Edge Autonomy, of between $535.0M and $605.0M, suggesting optimism for future growth.

Strategic Acquisition

Redwire has been upgraded from Neutral to Buy due to its transformative acquisition of Edge Autonomy, positioning it as a leading space infrastructure and defense technology company.

Negative Factors

Risks and Challenges

There are risks including dilution risk, high industry competition, technology and execution risks, customer concentration risk, and intellectual property risks.

Stock Downgrade

The company's stock was downgraded from Buy to Neutral due to limited near-term upside after a significant surge in share prices.

Redwire Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Redwire Corporation, a space infrastructure company, develops, manufactures, and sells mission critical space solutions and components for national security, civil, and commercial space markets in the United States, Luxembourg, Germany, South Korea, Poland, and internationally. The company provides various antennas; and advanced sensors and components, which include solar arrays, composite booms, radio frequency antennas, payload adapters, space-qualifies camera systems, and star trackers and sun sensors. It also sells a proprietary enterprise software suite that enables digital engineering and generation of interactive modeling and simulations of individual components, entire spacecraft, and full constellations in a cloud-based Software as a Service business model. In addition, the company offers on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing solutions; and low-earth orbit commercialization, digitally engineered spacecraft, and space domain awareness and resiliency technology solutions. Redwire Corporation is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Redwire makes money through a diverse revenue model that includes the sale of high-reliability spacecraft components, on-orbit servicing solutions, and space infrastructure development. Key revenue streams include contracts with government agencies such as NASA and the Department of Defense, as well as commercial partnerships with satellite and space exploration companies. The company also leverages its expertise in additive manufacturing and 3D printing technology to offer unique solutions for in-space manufacturing, which contributes to its earnings. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships further enhance Redwire's ability to provide comprehensive space solutions, driving its financial performance.

Redwire Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Redwire shows strong revenue growth but faces ongoing losses and negative equity, posing significant financial risks. High leverage and cash flow challenges suggest potential instability, requiring strategic measures to enhance profitability.

Income Statement

Redwire has shown significant revenue growth over the years, but profitability remains a challenge. The company has been consistently operating at a loss, which is reflected in negative EBIT and net profit margins. Despite an increase in revenue, the gross profit margin has declined from 23.8% in 2023 to 14.6% in 2024, indicating increased cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a concerning financial position, with negative stockholders' equity indicating more liabilities than assets. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, signifying financial risk. Redwire's total assets have grown, but high leverage and negative equity are major concerns.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows Redwire is struggling with negative operating cash flows and free cash flows over the years, despite some fluctuations. The company’s free cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash generation issues from core operations.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
304.10M	243.80M	160.55M	137.60M	57.44M
	Gross Profit
44.45M	57.97M	28.70M	29.38M	12.14M
	EBIT
-42.20M	-14.68M	-46.59M	-53.83M	-8.62M
	EBITDA
-91.16M	-6.33M	-118.82M	-55.77M	-15.44M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-114.31M	-27.26M	-130.62M	-61.54M	-15.71M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
49.07M	30.28M	28.32M	20.52M	22.08M
	Total Assets
292.62M	271.27M	257.70M	261.76M	156.77M
	Total Debt
20.52M	105.83M	95.08M	78.55M	79.54M
	Net Debt
-28.55M	75.56M	66.77M	58.03M	57.47M
	Total Liabilities
344.53M	218.44M	264.17M	154.53M	117.58M
	Stockholders Equity
-188.71M	52.60M	-6.70M	107.22M	39.20M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-23.75M	-6.54M	-35.81M	-40.22M	-13.65M
	Operating Cash Flow
-17.35M	1.23M	-31.66M	-37.36M	-12.49M
	Investing Cash Flow
-7.20M	-8.33M	-37.38M	-38.54M	-85.57M
	Financing Cash Flow
43.72M	9.06M	76.56M	74.21M	124.07M

Redwire Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.51
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.97, below the 50-day MA of 15.51, and below the 200-day MA of 10.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.28 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RDW.

Redwire Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NOC	78 Outperform	$70.28B	17.13	27.75%	1.70%	4.44%	110.33%
LMT	74 Outperform	$101.72B	19.37	81.04%	2.98%	5.14%	-19.14%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$7.24B	12.39	3.08%	3.39%	3.63%	-14.35%
RKLB	49 Neutral	$7.42B	―	-40.59%	―	78.34%	-1.13%
RDW	45 Neutral	$567.56M	―	-451.56%	―	24.73%	-219.97%
SPCE	42 Neutral	$97.35M	―	-83.78%	―	3.47%	53.31%
BA	39 Underperform	$102.77B	―	-162.23%	―	-14.49%	-399.90%

Redwire Corporate Events

Redwire CEO Discusses Strategic Focus and Acquisitions

On April 2, 2025, Redwire Corporation distributed an interview with its CEO, Peter Cannito, discussing the company’s recent activities and strategic focus. The interview highlighted Redwire’s development of a smaller robotic arm for European space missions and its emphasis on engaging retail investors who are increasingly important in the financial markets. Cannito also discussed Redwire’s role in recent lunar missions and the company’s M&A strategy, particularly the significant acquisition of Edge Autonomy, which aligns with Redwire’s long-term investment strategy in space and defense technologies.

Redwire Secures Approvals for Edge Autonomy Acquisition

On March 21, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced it has received all necessary regulatory approvals for its acquisition of Edge Autonomy, with the transaction expected to close in the second quarter of 2025 pending final conditions, including stockholder approval. This acquisition marks a significant milestone for Redwire, potentially enhancing its market position and operational capabilities in the space infrastructure sector.

Redwire to Acquire Edge Autonomy for Growth

On March 18, 2025, Redwire Corporation presented at the 37th Annual Roth Conference, discussing its agreement to acquire Edge Autonomy. This acquisition is expected to enhance Redwire’s position in the national security sector by integrating uncrewed aerial systems with its existing space and defense technologies, aiming to create a seamless system of systems. The acquisition aligns with Redwire’s strategy to differentiate itself in the space and defense tech industry, leveraging its public company status for transparency and growth.

Redwire Announces Acquisition of Edge Autonomy

On March 12, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced its transformative acquisition of Edge Autonomy, a major UAS systems developer, during the Cantor Global Technology Conference. This acquisition is expected to enhance Redwire’s capabilities in providing seamless communication systems for defense applications, particularly in Europe, and contribute to significant revenue growth. Redwire reported a 25% revenue growth in 2024 and anticipates further growth in 2025, with projected revenues between $535 million and $605 million. The acquisition is also expected to improve the company’s profitability and market positioning in the defense tech space.

Redwire Announces Acquisition of Edge Autonomy

On March 11, 2025, Redwire Corporation held an earnings call to discuss its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2024. During the call, Redwire announced its agreement to acquire Edge Autonomy, a move that could enhance its market positioning by integrating Edge Autonomy’s capabilities. This acquisition is expected to impact Redwire’s operations and potentially benefit stakeholders by expanding its service offerings in the space infrastructure sector.

Redwire Focuses on Strategic Growth Initiatives

On February 18, 2025, Redwire Corporation shared interviews on various media platforms with its CEO, Peter Cannito, discussing the company’s strategic growth initiatives. These initiatives include moving up the value chain with acquisitions like Hera Systems and Edge Autonomy to enhance Redwire’s space platform offerings and multi-domain capabilities. The company emphasizes financial discipline and a resilient, diverse portfolio as key differentiators in the competitive space sector.

Redwire Acquires Edge Autonomy to Boost Defense Tech

On January 27, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced the acquisition of Edge Autonomy for $925 million, aiming to enhance its role as a defense tech company by integrating autonomous airborne platforms with its space technologies. This move is expected to strengthen Redwire’s financial position, with anticipated growth in revenue and EBITDA and a transition to being cash flow positive, while positioning the company uniquely in the market with a multi-domain strategy.

Redwire Acquires Edge Autonomy for $925 Million

On January 21, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced its acquisition of Edge Autonomy, a leader in uncrewed airborne systems, for $925 million. This strategic move is expected to expand Redwire’s market, enhance its product offerings, and immediately boost revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow. The transaction aligns with Redwire’s growth strategy, emphasizing scalability and advanced technology development. The acquisition awaits customary approvals and is anticipated to close in the second quarter of 2025, with significant support from major shareholders.

Redwire Announces $925M Acquisition of Edge Autonomy

On January 20, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced a merger agreement to acquire Edge Autonomy, a leader in uncrewed airborne system technology, for a total of $925 million. The acquisition, subject to stockholder and regulatory approvals, is expected to enhance Redwire’s market position in autonomous systems, with significant financial structuring involving cash and stock payments, and potential equity financing to optimize the transaction. The merger agreement includes provisions for board representation and voting agreements from major stakeholders to facilitate the transaction’s completion.