Bank OZK (OZK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.31B
• Dividend Yield: 4.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.57M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.35
• Revenue Growth: 23.25%
• EPS Growth: 4.64%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,028
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 113,431,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,211,185
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,568,414
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.41
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 4.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $49.86
• Price Target Upside: 29.91% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

Bank OZK's strong financial performance and promising growth prospects in the CIB segment are key strengths, supported by a solid cash flow and profitability. Although technical indicators suggest caution, the company's valuation is attractive, and the optimistic earnings call underscores potential future growth. Challenges remain in regulatory areas and specific operation segments like RESG, but the overall outlook is positive.

Positive Factors

Credit Performance

Better credit performance led to a significant positive stock reaction.

Earnings

Operating earnings per share surpassed expectations with beats across net interest income, expenses, provision, and fees.

Loan Diversification

Loan diversification and sustained credit trend improvement are expected to drive the valuation multiple higher.

Negative Factors

Interest Rates Impact

OZK is worst positioned for rates down quickly, as 81% of loans are variable rate.

Net Interest Margin

3Q24 NIM of 4.55% missed MS and consensus estimates by 9/4 bps.

Project Commitments

Identified projects with total commitments equaling $3B, amounting to 2/3 of CET1, remain 90%+ vacant.

Bank OZK Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bank OZK is a regional bank headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas, serving customers since 1903. The bank operates across various sectors, primarily focusing on commercial banking, real estate lending, and offering personal and business banking services. Bank OZK is known for its strong presence in the real estate sector, providing a range of financial services including commercial real estate loans, construction lending, and retail banking products such as savings and checking accounts, personal loans, and credit cards.

How the Company Makes Money

Bank OZK generates revenue primarily through interest income derived from its substantial portfolio of loans, including commercial real estate loans, construction financing, and residential mortgages. The bank also earns money through fees and service charges associated with its retail banking products such as checking and savings accounts, as well as transaction fees from debit and credit card usage. Additionally, Bank OZK invests in securities, generating income from interest and dividends. A key factor contributing to its earnings is its strategic focus on real estate lending, which allows the bank to leverage its expertise and relationships in the sector to maintain a robust loan portfolio. The bank's prudent risk management and cost-efficient operations further enhance its profitability.

Bank OZK Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bank OZK has demonstrated strong financial health with robust income, balance sheet, and cash flow metrics. The company shows consistent revenue and profit growth, maintains a stable capital structure, and demonstrates effective cash management. There is room for improvement in increasing equity relative to assets.

Income Statement

Bank OZK has demonstrated a strong income statement performance with a gross profit margin of 100% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin for TTM is approximately 28.8%, which is robust and suggests solid profitability despite a competitive banking environment. Revenue growth has been consistent, showing an upward trend from the prior years, and the EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, reflecting good operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Bank OZK is solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.15 for TTM, indicating prudent leverage management. Return on equity (ROE) is strong at around 12.6% for TTM, reflecting effective use of shareholder capital. The equity ratio stands at 14.9% for TTM, suggesting a stable capital structure, though there is room for improvement in increasing equity relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Bank OZK's cash flow performance is robust, with a positive free cash flow and a moderate free cash flow growth rate from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating high-quality earnings. Furthermore, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests effective cash management, although there has been a slight decrease compared to prior periods.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.66B	1.37B	1.25B	1.10B	984.91M
	Gross Profit
1.48B	2.25B	1.25B	1.10B	984.91M
	EBIT
0.00	1.02B	845.41M	752.89M	376.21M
	EBITDA
0.00	904.40M	765.52M	796.05M	419.97M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
716.46M	690.78M	564.14M	579.00M	291.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
5.62B	2.15B	4.53B	5.97B	5.80B
	Total Assets
38.26B	34.24B	27.66B	26.53B	27.16B
	Total Debt
883.04M	1.27B	1.08B	1.22B	1.10B
	Net Debt
-1.90B	-874.80M	41.75M	-836.46M	-1.30B
	Total Liabilities
32.55B	29.10B	22.97B	21.69B	22.89B
	Stockholders Equity
5.71B	5.14B	4.69B	4.84B	4.27B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
738.85M	852.41M	735.09M	508.74M	502.34M
	Operating Cash Flow
834.47M	881.55M	764.95M	542.66M	551.95M
	Investing Cash Flow
-3.25B	-5.53B	-2.43B	125.75M	-2.97B
	Financing Cash Flow
3.05B	5.77B	644.92M	-1.01B	3.32B

Bank OZK Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 38.38
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OZK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.53, below the 50-day MA of 45.25, and below the 200-day MA of 43.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OZK.

Bank OZK Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FNB	78 Outperform	$4.34B	9.53	7.53%	4.07%	15.34%	-3.89%
OZK	77 Outperform	$4.31B	6.18	13.21%	4.27%	23.25%	4.64%
VLY	68 Neutral	$4.51B	11.62	5.38%	5.46%	6.09%	-26.94%
GBCI	67 Neutral	$4.38B	22.98	6.09%	3.42%	11.66%	-16.50%
COLB	66 Neutral	$4.50B	8.40	10.55%	6.91%	7.84%	54.79%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$13.51B	9.48	9.36%	4.87%	16.09%	-8.30%
FLG	51 Neutral	$4.21B	―	-13.52%	0.60%	-21.80%	-5309.94%