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Optinose Inc (OPTN)
NASDAQ:OPTN

Optinose (OPTN) AI Stock Analysis

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Optinose

(NASDAQ:OPTN)

52Neutral
Optinose's stock faces significant financial challenges, with persistent losses and high leverage impacting its financial health. Despite some positive trends in prescription growth and technical momentum, these are overshadowed by operational difficulties and a downward revision of revenue guidance. The company's valuation is unattractive due to ongoing losses and no dividend yield, making it a risky investment at present.
Positive Factors
Acquisition
OptiNose's acquisition by Paratek Pharmaceuticals presents an opportunity to broaden the commercial reach of XHANCE by targeting not only ENTs and allergy specialists, but also primary care providers.
Market Expansion
Paratek's focus on expanding its primary care field force offers XHANCE an important opportunity to capitalize on existing commercial infrastructure for increased market presence.
Regulatory Approval
The March 15, 2024 approval of an sNDA expands the addressable market by 3x and alleviates payer challenges.
Negative Factors
Price Target Adjustment
The rating is being lowered to Hold and the price target to $9 from $17.
Revenue Guidance
XHANCE net revenue guidance for full-year 2024 was adjusted down from previously guided expectations.
Stock Rating
The rating for OptiNose has been changed to Neutral and the price target reduced, reflecting adjustments in light of the announced acquisition.

Optinose (OPTN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Optinose Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOptinose (OPTN) is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing innovative products for patients treated by ear, nose, and throat (ENT) and allergy specialists. The company's core product, XHANCE, is a nasal spray designed to treat chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps in adults. Optinose operates primarily within the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors, leveraging its proprietary Exhalation Delivery System to provide effective treatments for ENT conditions.
How the Company Makes MoneyOptinose makes money primarily through the sale of its flagship product, XHANCE, which is a prescription nasal spray. The company's revenue is generated from direct sales to specialty pharmacies and distributors, who then supply the product to healthcare providers and patients. Optinose's revenue model relies on physician prescriptions and patient demand for XHANCE, driven by its effectiveness in treating chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps. Additionally, Optinose engages in partnerships and collaborations with other healthcare entities to expand its market reach and increase product adoption, though specific details on significant partnerships are not available.

Optinose Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Optinose faces significant financial challenges, characterized by persistent losses, high leverage, and negative equity. Despite some revenue growth, the company struggles to achieve profitability and positive cash flow. The financial health of the company is precarious, necessitating a strategic turnaround to stabilize and improve its financial position.
Income Statement
40
Negative
Optinose has shown some improvement in revenue, with a growth rate of 10.2% from 2023 to 2024. However, profitability remains a concern as indicated by the negative net profit margin of -27.5% and negative EBIT margin of -20.9% in 2024. The company is struggling to convert increased revenue into positive earnings, which suggests ongoing challenges in cost management or market conditions.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet reveals significant financial instability, with a negative stockholders' equity of -$40.36 million in 2024, indicating insolvency. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated meaningfully due to negative equity, but high total debt of $126.48 million poses a risk. The company is heavily leveraged, which could impair its ability to sustain operations without external financing.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Optinose's cash flow situation is challenging, with negative free cash flow of -$44.75 million in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable, suggesting difficulties in generating cash from operations. The reliance on financing activities to sustain cash levels highlights potential liquidity issues if external financing dries up.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
78.23M70.99M76.28M74.65M49.12M
Gross Profit
71.00M62.35M67.01M65.50M41.60M
EBIT
-16.32M-22.75M-55.90M-66.45M-87.22M
EBITDA
-1.20M-15.55M-57.46M-65.68M-85.32M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-21.54M-35.48M-76.39M-81.65M-98.33M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
84.48M73.68M94.24M110.50M144.16M
Total Assets
128.78M107.73M144.22M166.07M188.81M
Total Debt
126.48M131.75M131.17M130.70M125.20M
Net Debt
42.00M58.06M36.93M20.20M-18.95M
Total Liabilities
169.15M194.34M200.84M187.84M182.03M
Stockholders Equity
-40.36M-86.61M-56.62M-21.77M6.79M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-44.75M-20.86M-67.71M-77.10M-86.75M
Operating Cash Flow
-44.68M-20.53M-67.65M-76.94M-86.21M
Investing Cash Flow
-72.00K-328.00K-63.00K-62.00K-546.00K
Financing Cash Flow
55.55M300.00K51.44M43.32M83.81M

Optinose Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price9.16
Price Trends
50DMA
7.17
Positive
100DMA
6.89
Positive
200DMA
9.85
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.55
Positive
RSI
76.25
Negative
STOCH
77.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OPTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.13, above the 50-day MA of 7.17, and below the 200-day MA of 9.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 76.25 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OPTN.

Optinose Risk Analysis

Optinose disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Optinose reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Optinose Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (50)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
52
Neutral
$92.77M75.79%10.19%44.46%
50
Neutral
$5.14B3.10-40.94%2.95%17.94%2.00%
33
Underperform
$84.45M-69.67%33.97%
VOVOR
33
Underperform
$85.70M-94.52%2.98%
32
Underperform
$82.77M48.74%-1.60%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OPTN
Optinose
9.16
-5.36
-36.91%
GALT
Galectin Therapeutics
1.33
-2.05
-60.65%
BDTX
Black Diamond Therapeutics
1.49
-3.52
-70.26%
VOR
Vor Biopharma
0.70
-1.18
-62.77%

Optinose Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 26, 2025 | % Change Since: -0.11% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture. While there are positive trends in prescription growth and revenue per prescription, the overall financial performance did not meet expectations, resulting in a downward revision of revenue guidance. There are also operational challenges in prescription fulfillment and prior authorization requirements.
Highlights
New Inflection in Prescription Growth
XHANCE observed a 20% to 40% growth in new prescriptions during October, indicating a positive trend in demand.
Increased Average Net Revenue Per Prescription
The average net revenue per prescription increased to $320 in Q3 2024, a 36% rise compared to Q3 2023.
New Insurance Coverage with Express Scripts
XHANCE was added to Express Scripts' national formularies, improving insurance coverage for over 24 million lives.
Operating Expense Control
Operating expenses for 2024 are expected to be $90 million to $93 million, reduced from the previous guidance of $95 million to $101 million.
Lowlights
Lower Than Expected Revenue
XHANCE net revenue for Q3 2024 was $20.4 million, lower than expected, leading to a revised full year revenue guidance of $75 million to $79 million down from $85 million to $90 million.
Challenges with Prescription Fulfillment
The optimization of the new hub services platform for prescription fulfillment took more time and effort than initially anticipated.
High Prior Authorization Requirement
Approximately 50% of commercial covered lives are still subject to prior authorizations, creating challenges for prescription fulfillment.
Company Guidance
During the OptiNose Q3 2024 earnings call, the company adjusted its full-year revenue guidance for XHANCE, projecting net revenues between $75 million and $79 million, down from previous expectations of $85 million to $90 million. This revision reflects a third-quarter net revenue of $20.4 million, a slight increase from $19.8 million in Q3 2023, and a 3% growth year-over-year. The average net revenue per prescription rose to $320, marking a 36% increase from the prior year's Q3. Despite some challenges, including inventory stocking effects and slower-than-anticipated uptake, the company observed an inflection in new prescriptions, indicating potential growth. OptiNose also highlighted improvements in insurance coverage, such as XHANCE's inclusion in Express Scripts' national formularies, enhancing patient access and reducing prior authorization burdens. The company remains optimistic about achieving peak annual net revenues of at least $300 million with further market penetration.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.