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OneWater Marine (ONEW) AI Stock Analysis

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OneWater Marine

(NASDAQ:ONEW)

64Neutral
OneWater Marine's overall stock score reflects a challenging environment. Strengths include operational profitability and positive cash flow, but these are offset by high leverage, revenue declines, and negative net margins. Technical indicators suggest bearish trends, while valuation metrics are unattractive due to negative earnings. The earnings call provides a cautious outlook with mixed signals regarding growth and challenges.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
The inventory overhang that dented margin should fade, while lower operating costs and floorplan interest expense benefit the bottom line.
Market Confidence
The election result and stock market rally are seen as friendly to boater confidence, suggesting more upside than downside to initial results.
Negative Factors
Insurance Challenges
Insurance carriers have placed moratoriums on writing new policies in certain geographies, preventing customers from binding insurance on boats they are looking to purchase.
Natural Disasters
OneWater announced its operations 'will be directly impacted' by Hurricane Helene.
Sales Performance
Major hurricanes made the tough retail environment worse, with same-store sales falling 7%.

OneWater Marine (ONEW) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

OneWater Marine Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOneWater Marine Inc. operates as a recreational boat retailer in the United States. The company offers new and pre-owned recreational boats and yachts, as well as related marine products, such as parts and accessories. It also provides boat repair and maintenance services. In addition, the company arranges boat financing and insurance; and other ancillary services, including indoor and outdoor storage, and marina, as well as rental of boats and personal watercraft. As of September 30, 2021, it operated 70 stores in 11 states, including Texas, Florida, Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Ohio and New Jersey. OneWater Marine Inc. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Buford, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyOneWater Marine generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is the sale of new and pre-owned recreational boats, which includes various types such as yachts, sports boats, and fishing boats. In addition to boat sales, OneWater Marine earns income from the sale of marine parts and accessories, as well as providing repair and maintenance services. The company also offers financing and insurance products, which contribute to its earnings. OneWater Marine leverages strategic partnerships with leading boat manufacturers to ensure a diverse and attractive inventory for customers, enhancing its competitive position in the market.

OneWater Marine Financial Statement Overview

Summary
OneWater Marine presents a mixed financial outlook. While it demonstrates strong operational profitability, it struggles with net income margins and financial leverage. Cash flow generation is positive, but high debt levels and recent revenue declines pose risks. Strategic adjustments might enhance financial stability and growth.
Income Statement
70
Positive
OneWater Marine's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data shows a gross profit margin of 40.0% and an EBIT margin of 4.0%, indicating solid profitability in its operations. However, the net profit margin is negative at -0.6%, showing a challenge in translating revenue into net income. Revenue growth has been volatile, with recent declines from previous years, highlighting potential demand issues or market competition.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.82 suggests high leverage, which poses financial risk if revenue declines persist. The equity ratio of 22.0% shows a moderate reliance on equity compared to total assets. Return on equity is negative due to net losses, which is a concern for investors seeking returns on their investment.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
The company has achieved a significant increase in operating cash flow, with a positive free cash flow, despite negative net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating efficient cash conversion. However, free cash flow growth has been inconsistent, reflecting the need for strategic capital allocation.
Breakdown
TTMSep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.78B1.77B1.94B1.74B1.23B1.02B
Gross Profit
422.80M435.06M535.13M553.65M357.45M235.52M
EBIT
71.50M64.82M18.07M217.83M148.88M78.47M
EBITDA
97.49M86.99M43.90M229.98M158.41M91.95M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-10.51M-5.71M-38.59M130.94M116.41M48.51M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
22.71M16.85M84.65M42.07M62.61M66.09M
Total Assets
1.61B1.59B1.69B1.50B720.61M458.07M
Total Debt
644.86M1.01B1.08B837.38M318.78M213.43M
Net Debt
622.15M991.05M1.00B795.31M256.17M147.34M
Total Liabilities
1.23B1.20B1.28B1.05B465.78M284.78M
Stockholders Equity
354.78M360.81M358.61M385.32M225.93M122.85M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
85.96M8.92M-153.83M-8.20M149.53M206.17M
Operating Cash Flow
107.43M34.84M-129.76M7.45M159.42M212.48M
Investing Cash Flow
-29.27M13.32M-51.60M-476.84M-117.13M-4.67M
Financing Cash Flow
-95.77M-114.11M213.72M456.40M-36.50M-151.14M

OneWater Marine Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price16.58
Price Trends
50DMA
17.34
Negative
100DMA
18.71
Negative
200DMA
21.53
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Negative
RSI
44.35
Neutral
STOCH
54.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONEW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.80, below the 50-day MA of 17.34, and below the 200-day MA of 21.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ONEW.

OneWater Marine Risk Analysis

OneWater Marine disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. OneWater Marine reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

OneWater Marine Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
HZHZO
69
Neutral
$499.79M9.245.75%-1.73%-40.39%
MPMPX
66
Neutral
$292.98M16.9211.94%6.68%-38.35%-59.21%
BCBC
65
Neutral
$3.53B27.717.50%3.16%-18.19%-68.10%
64
Neutral
$289.46M-2.97%-7.72%81.39%
64
Neutral
$288.81M-1.53%-45.70%-115.77%
MBMBC
63
Neutral
$1.67B13.6010.12%-0.95%-30.42%
59
Neutral
$12.26B11.12-0.55%3.78%1.42%-20.63%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ONEW
OneWater Marine
16.58
-11.21
-40.34%
BC
Brunswick
53.49
-40.22
-42.92%
MPX
Marine Products
8.38
-1.22
-12.71%
HZO
Marinemax
22.01
-11.11
-33.54%
MCFT
MasterCraft Boat Holdings
17.24
-6.75
-28.14%
MBC
MasterBrand Inc
13.10
-5.28
-28.73%

OneWater Marine Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Jan 30, 2025 | % Change Since: 8.01% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with notable progress in revenue growth, inventory management, and finance and insurance revenue. However, challenges remain with declining margins, weather impacts, and increased net loss. The company's cautious optimism for 2025 reflects these balanced factors.
Highlights
Revenue Increase and Market Share Gains
Overall revenue increased by 3% with same-store sales up by 4%, driven by a low double-digit increase in new unit sales significantly outpacing the industry.
Inventory Management Success
Inventory levels were managed effectively, down 10% year-over-year, leading to lower carrying costs and improved operational efficiency.
Finance and Insurance Revenue Growth
Finance and insurance revenue increased by 28% to $9 million, demonstrating strong finance penetration and contributing to offsetting margin pressures.
Cost Reduction Initiatives
Selling, general, and administrative expenses decreased by 1% both on a dollar basis and as a percentage of total revenue, indicating successful cost management strategies.
Lowlights
Margin Decline
Gross profit decreased by 8% to $84 million, affected by lower margins on brands being exited and new and pre-owned boat pricing.
Impact of Weather and Hurricanes
Sales in Florida were affected by Hurricane Helene, with several stores temporarily closed and sales in the impacted area down mid-single digits compared to the prior year.
Net Loss Increase
Net loss for the first quarter increased to $14 million or $0.81 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $8 million or $0.49 per diluted share in the prior year.
Company Guidance
During the fiscal first quarter of 2025, OneWater Marine Inc. provided guidance reaffirming their expectations for the year despite a challenging industry environment. The company reported a 3% revenue increase to $376 million and a 4% rise in same-store sales, driven by a low double-digit increase in new unit sales. Inventory management was a focal point, with a 10% year-over-year reduction in inventory. Margins faced pressure due to deliberate pricing strategies to clear aged inventory, yet finance and insurance revenue grew by 28%, highlighting the benefit of their diverse business model. SG&A expenses decreased by 1% to $79 million, aided by cost reduction initiatives, and the company maintained its fiscal 2025 guidance, anticipating total sales between $1.7 billion and $1.85 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $80 million to $110 million. Despite the better-than-expected first quarter results, OneWater remains cautiously optimistic about 2025, focusing on inventory strategy and adapting to market dynamics.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.